Insecurity of Climate Change and Residential Landscaping in Phoenix

1. Insecurity of Climate Change and Residential Landscaping in the Phoenix Oasis David G. Casagrande Department of Sociology & Anthropology

2. Overview • Security = economic and political • Growing population • Constant or decreasing water supply • Research identified three important processes that decrease security: • cognitive human/desert dichotomy • oasis mentality as cognitive compromise • poor sense of community (“sense of place”)

3. Population Growth in Phoenix

4. Three Water Sources • Salt River system • Colorado River System • Ground Water Currently in 8th year of drought conditions • Total Salt River system is at 63% of capacity (as of March 23, 2007; source: Salt River Project) • Water managers consider Lake Powell a primary indicator for the Colorado system • Lake Powell is at 47 % of capacity (as of March 5, 2007; source: US DOI Bureau of Reclamation) • Both rely heavily on snow melt

5. Why focus on landscaping behavior? • Expression of identity and personal security • Represents a critical interface between public and policy • Per capita use (gallons per day): US average 100 Phoenix 226 Paradise Valley 400 • In Phoenix, 40 % of all water used is for residential landscaping “Per capita reduction in water use requires a change in lifestyle expectations…away from the ‘oasis’ mentality” Phoenix water manager

6. Why focus on landscaping behavior? • current per capita water use in Phoenix is 226 gallons per day • residential per capita use must be reduced to 90 gallons per day by 2040 • current optimal technologies could reduce indoor per capita use to 40 gallons per day • leaving 50 gallons available for outdoor use • but note some communities currently use 400 • this assumes non-residential demand is constant • AND supply remains constant

7. Economic Security • Most businesses in metro Phoenix could be located anywhere • Residents think of Phoenix as a place to “park capital” “We have plenty of water, just too many people. I don’t know how much I’m willing to conserve before we’ll leave. We’re thinking of going back to California.”(Interview participant) • 12% of jobs are in construction or real estate • Property values and regional economy may be vulnerable • Consider Detroit (and other “rust belt” cities)

8. Economic Security • “The West’s snow resources are already declining as the climate warms.”(Mote et al 2005) • Previous residential efficiency goals insufficient • Could we create a “dust belt” similar to the “rust belt”

9. Other Complicating Factors • microclimate and utility costs • heat islands • dissatisfaction with growth • air quality • traffic • crime

10. Research • Goal: identify perceptions contributing to landscaping behavior • Phoenix Area Social Survey (Harlan et al.) • Detailed follow-up survey with 55 participants • Thematic content analysis of in-depth interviews with 55 participants

11. Landscape Types Native Desert Xeriscape (dry) Oasis (mixed) Mesic (Lush)

12. Human / Desert Dichotomy Past research suggested a paradox: • Arizona natives have lowest preference for desert landscape and the highest preference for mesic landscape (Martin, Peterson, & Stabler, 2002) • In our survey 67% of long-term residents agreed with the statement “the desert is beautiful” • Did our respondents prefer dry landscapes for their yards?

13. Human / Desert Dichotomy

14. Human / Desert Dichotomy “I’ve lived here my whole life. I love the desert…what they choose for desert landscaping is a different story from going out into the real desert.” “I strongly agree [desert is beautiful] if it is out in its natural environment.” “I think the desert belongs in the desert.” “I have lived in Arizona all my life. I love the desert in its place.”

15. Family Identity and Lawns

16. Family Identity and Lawns • “That [mesic] to me looks ideal. It looks like a family could live there.” • “If it’s all desert landscaping, the kids can’t go out and play, especially if there’s no convenient areas where they can play, or parks nearby.” • “Cactuses… I think about children. The cactuses are very unsafe…I have children and then there’s children in the neighborhood that could get hurt .”

17. Oasis Mentality "The mind-set in Phoenix is that we live in an oasis . . .“(Conservation coordinator, Phoenix Department of Water Services) “I came to visit when I was 16. I took one look at the palm trees and I said ‘This is like and oasis. This is where I have to live!’”(interview participant) “I love the desert. Where else can you live in a place with no humidity and be only five minutes from the [golf] course.”(interview participant)

18. Environmental Values

19. Environmental Values

20. Oasis as a Compromise ‘Compromise’ emerges as a theme within oasis-like landscape choices • “I think that’s [mesic] real dumb for Arizona, although I do like it best. But I’m going to choose 3 [oasis].” • “…not too much grass, especially considering we live in a desert, water conservation is a very big thing, but there is still some grass, and I like the shade of trees. It also helps it save more energy as far as electric bills”

21. Oasis as a compromise • fits well with history of marketing Phoenix as an oasis in the desert (still continues)

22. Oasis as a compromise • Oasis mentality may also result from conflicting messages

23. Conservation e.g., Phoenix Dept. of Water Resources

24. Economic Development “The desert is a myth!” Arizona Office of Tourism

25. Solutions? • oasis landscaping is insufficient for required per capita water use reduction goals Policy Recommendations: • water pricing = political suicide • emphasize economic implications in addition to environmental responsibility • coordinate messages between public agencies • emphasize xeriscaping, not necessarily desert landscaping

26. Thanks to: Collaborators at Arizona State University: • Scott Yabiku • Liz Farley-Metzger • Sharon Harlan Funded by the National Science Foundation Long-Term Ecological Research Program