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Prof. David G. Vaughan British Antarctic Survey

Sea-level rise: another face of climate change. Prof. David G. Vaughan British Antarctic Survey. Mitigation. > 500 yrs. Response to sea-level rise. Sea-level rise. < 200 yrs. Adaptation. Emissions of greenhouse gases. Photo – flickr / Tc7. Sea-level rise by ocean warming.

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Prof. David G. Vaughan British Antarctic Survey

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  1. Sea-level rise: another face of climate change Prof. David G. Vaughan British Antarctic Survey

  2. Mitigation > 500 yrs Response to sea-level rise Sea-level rise < 200 yrs Adaptation

  3. Emissions of greenhouse gases Photo – flickr / Tc7

  4. Sea-level rise by ocean warming

  5. Sea-level rise by loss of mountain glaciers Muir Glacier 1941 - 2004 W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia

  6. Sea-level rise by loss of polar ice sheets

  7. Recent sea-level rise 3.2 mm/year 2.0 mm/year 0.8 mm/year

  8. IPCC (2007) on sea-level rise Models used […] do not include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking. The projections include a contribution due to increased ice flow from Greenland and Antarctica at the rates observed for 1993-2003, but these flow rates could increase or decrease in the future. For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM-3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values cannot be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise. {10.6}

  9. Ice-sheet thickness change 2002-06 Pritchard et al., Nature, 2009

  10. Ice-shelf retreat around the Antarctic Peninsula Photo – Vaughan, Jan 2009

  11. IPCC 2007 sea-level rise projections

  12. Possible future sea-level rise Acceleration to 2.5% per year increase in rate, until 2100 gives 1.4 m cm But rise in last decade is 3.5 cm per year (10 times current), cf MWP1a Continuation of a 1% per year increase in rate, until 2100 gives 53 cm

  13. London- 1.25 million people - £80bn property

  14. Interim Defences during Thames Barrier construction 1928 Flood + 1930 Flood Act Late C19 update to Flood Act 1879 Flood Act Flood defences in London

  15. Thames Barrier

  16. Flood return at Thames Barrier 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 Source: Dawson et al. (2005), Jones (2001), Environment Agency (2003a)

  17. Coastal populations Elevation (m) 300 200 Population (Millions) 100 0 20 40 60 80 100

  18. Developing countries Photo – Flickr / Dan..

  19. Developed countries

  20. Science and prediction The 100th Thames Barrier Closure Photo – flickr / jkpaul

  21. Cascade of uncertainty in sea-level rise projection Compounding of error

  22. A role for science in 2010? • Improved quantification of risk • Improved basis for sea-defence planning • Support for coastal adaptation and management • (Avoidance of unwarranted expenditure) • Fuller evaluation of long-term impact of climate change

  23. Coordinator: David G. Vaughan Information: www.ice2sea.eu

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