Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research
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Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Using Atmospheric Inversion and Process-Based Approaches (SASS PI Meeting – 26-27 March 2006) A. David McGuire Institute of Arctic Biology - University of Alaska Fairbanks. Project Participants. McGuire - UAF

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Project participants

Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Using Atmospheric Inversion and Process-Based Approaches(SASS PI Meeting – 26-27 March 2006)A. David McGuireInstitute of Arctic Biology - University of Alaska Fairbanks


Project participants

Project Participants

  • McGuire - UAF

  • Melillo, Kicklighter, Peterson - MBL

  • McClelland – Texas A&M

  • Follows, Prinn - MIT

  • Zhuang - Purdue


Project participants

Project Overview

  • Background

  • General Questions

  • General Strategy

  • Tasks

  • Time Line

  • Education and Outreach


Project participants

Interactions of High Latitude Ecosystems

with the Earth’s Climate System

Regional Climate

Global Climate

Exchange of

radiatively active gases

(CO2 and CH4)

Delivery of freshwater to Arctic Ocean

Water and

energy

exchange

Impacts

High Latitude Ecosystems


Project participants

32-44% of global soil carbon stored in high-latitudes


Project participants

Key Fluxes of Carbon in the Arctic System

Atmosphere

CO2

CH4

CO2

Land

Arctic

Ocean

DOC, DIC, POC

Permafrost

Total C

Pacific

Ocean

Atlantic

Ocean


Project participants

General Questions Guiding Research

  • What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2 and CH4 over the Pan-Arctic region and how is the balance changing over time? (Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability)

  • What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2 and CH4 over the Pan-Arctic region and how do the controls change with time? (Processes and Interactions)


Project participants

Atmospheric inversion estimates

of Arctic System CO2 and CH4 dynamics

Arctic

Terrestrial

and Marine

Ecosystems

  • Observations of

  • Arctic System

  • CO2 and CH4

  • dynamics:

  • experiments

  • fluxes

  • inventories

  • disturbance regimes

  • remote sensing

  • atmospheric and marine

  • concentrations

Process-based estimates

of Arctic System

CO2 and CH4 dynamics

General Strategy: Model-Data Fusion


Project participants

Tasks

1. Conduct model-data fusion studies with process-based models of various components of high latitude terrestrial C dynamics including

a. Terrestrial CO2 (McGuire lead) and CH4 exchange (Zhuang lead), and

b. Transfer of C from high latitude terrestrial ecosystems to the mouth of rivers in the Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin (Melillo/Peterson/McClelland/Kicklighter lead)

2. Conduct model-data fusion studies with a process-based model of marine CO2 exchange in oceans adjacent to the high latitude terrestrial regions (Follows lead)

3. Improve atmospheric inversions of CO2 and CH4 across high latitude regions through better incorporation of data and process-understanding on CO2 and CH4 dynamics (Prinn lead).

4. Project synthesis (All).


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Soil temperature

Vegetation type;Snow pack; Soil moisture

Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) couples biogeochemistry and soil thermal dynamics

Tool for Process-Based Terrestrial CO2 Exchange


Project participants

90°

60°

30°

g C m-2 yr-1

-75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 10 25

Sink Source

Strategy to evaluate seasonal exchange of carbon

dioxide simulated by terrestrial biosphere models

Observed and simulated atmospheric CO2

concentrations at Mould Bay Station, Canada

(-119.35oW, 76.25oN) during the 1980s

Spatial patterns of change in vegetation carbon over the twenty year period spanning from 1980-2000 as simulated by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)

Incorporation of freeze-thaw dynamics into the Terrestrial Ecosystem model improves the simulation

of the seasonal and decadal exchange of carbon dioxide exchange with the atmosphere

(Zhuang, Euskirchen, McGuire, Melillo, Romanovsky)


Project participants

Tool for Process-Based Terrestrial CH4 Exchange

Methane

Consumption

and Emission

Module

(MCEM)

Hydrological

Module

(HM)

Water Table and

Soil Moisture Profile

Soil

Thermal

Module

(STM)

Soil Temperature Profile

Active Layer Depth

40 35 20 10 0 –1

Terrestrial

Ecosystem

Model

(TEM)

Source

Sink

Labile carbon

Vegetation Characteristics

(g CH4 m-2 year-1)


Project participants

Methane Consumption and Emission Module

Atmospheric CH4 Concentration (AM)

Plant-

Mediated

Emission (PM)

Ebullition

(EB)

Diffusion

(DSA)

Soil / Water Surface

(Oxic Soil)

Upper Boundary

CH4 Consumption (MC)

Water Table

(Anoxic Soil)

CH4 Production (MP)

Lower Boundary

(Zhuang et al., 2004 GBC)


Project participants

Net Methane Fluxes in the 1990s

Emissions

= 56 Tg CH4 yr-1

Consumption

= -7 Tg CH4 yr-1

Net Methane

Fluxes

= 49 Tg CH4 yr-1

(Zhuang et al., 2004GBC)


Project participants

Tool for Transfer of C from Land to Ocean

Shaded area = Modified TEM

CO2 (g)

CO2 (g)

fire

GPP

abvR

soilR

Soil Inorganic Carbon

Vegetation

Chemical

Weathering

rootR

HCO3-

CO3-2

CO2(g)

CO2(aq)

harvest

Soil

Organic

Matter

RH

leachCO2

leachALK

evadeCO2

CO2 (g)

CO2(aq)

Alkalinity

POC

erodePOC

leachDOC

DOC

Stream Export


Project participants

Yukon River Project Participants

U. S. Geological Survey:

National Research Program

National Stream Quality Accounting Network

District Offices AK, CA, GA, OR, TX, WI

Alaska Science Center

Universities:

Florida State University

University of Southern Mississippi

Yale University

With thanks to:

Environment Canada

Water Survey of Canada

Yukon Territorial Government

Alaska Inter-Tribal Council

Alaska Department of Fish and Game

Bureau of Land Management

National Park Service

U S Fish and Wildlife Service

Citizen Volunteers


Project participants

2002

between Eagle and Stevens Village

2003

between Stevens Village and Pilot Station

2004

between Whitehorse, Canada, and Eagle


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Carbon Flux, Water Year 2002

5

6.55 Tg C

188 km3

DIC

4.5

PIC

4

DOC

POC

3.5

Total C Export

Total Water Discharge

3

3.63 Tg C

104 km3

Flux (g C yr-1 x 1012)

2.5

2.63 Tg C

76 km3

2

1.5

0.79 Tg C

24 km3

1

0.36 Tg C

12 km3

0.5

0

Porcupine

River

Tanana River

Yukon River

at Eagle

Yukon River

at Stevens

Village

Yukon River

at Pilot

Station


Annual doc leaching from contemporary ecosystems in the yukon river watershed during the 1990s

Annual DOC Leaching from Contemporary Ecosystems in the Yukon River Watershed during the 1990s

0

0.5

1

2

4

8

16

22

g C m-2 yr-1

Total: 1.0 Tg C yr-1

or 1.15 g C m-2 yr-1

TEM 6.0


Project participants

PARTNERS Rivers

Riverkm3/y

Mackenzie 308

Yukon 200

Kolyma 132

Lena 525

Yenisey620

Ob’ 404


Project participants

Tools for Ocean C Transfers

  • MIT Ocean Circulation Model

  • MIT Ocean Biogeochemistry Model


Physical framework

Physical Framework

  • MITgcm

  • Global configuration, 1/4o resolution

  • Cubed-sphere grid configuration

  • Polar oceans resolved, dynamic ice model

  • Dimitris Menemenlis (JPL), Chris Hill (MIT) et al.


Physical model flow speed

Physical model – flow speed


Current ocean biogeochemistry model

Current Ocean Biogeochemistry Model

  • Explicit C, P, O, Fe, Alk (Ca) cycles

  • Prognostic variables DIC, O2, PO4, DOP, FeT, Alk

  • Air-sea exchange of CO2, O2

  • DOC

    • linked to DOP with fixed stoichiometry

    • No continental sources

    • “Semi-labile”, 6 month lifetime

  • Simple parameterization of export production (P, Fe, light limitation)

  • Optional explicit ecosystem (2 phytoplankton classes, single grazer, explicit Si cycle)

  • Physics – coarse res, generally no Arctic Ocean!


Project participants

Previous work:

Interannual variability of air-sea CO2 flux

Ocean model

McKinley et al. (2004)

Atmospheric inverse model

Bousquet et al. (2000)


This work biogeochemistry

This work: Biogeochemistry

  • “Offline” model driven by ECCO2 physics

  • Hemispheric configuration

  • Estimate air-sea fluxes, distributions, etc 1992 – 2001

  • Continental sources/treatment of DOC, DIC

  • Explore sensitivity to lifetime of DOC

  • Simple export production model (explicit ecosystem)


Project participants

Tool for Atmospheric Inversions

of CO2 and CH4

  • MATCH: Model of Atmospheric Transport

  • and Chemistry


Inverse modeling

Sinks

Sources

Sample

Sample

observed

modeled

solved for

Inverse Modeling

Air Parcel

transport

transport

Air Parcel

Air Parcel


Project participants

Dargaville, McGuire, and Rayner

2002 (Climatic Change)


Project participants

Figure 2. MATCH simulates effect of North Atlantic Oscillation on CH4

AGAGE observations (red) versus MATCH (black) at MaceHead, Ireland

NAO (+) winds

MIRROR PLOT

NAO (-) winds

MIRROR PLOT

Ref: Chen & Prinn, 2005; Chen, 2004


Project participants

Time Line of Research

  • First Year – Organize data sets and finish up any necessary model development

  • Second Year – Conduct model-data fusion studies with the models

  • Third Year – Project Synthesis


Project participants

Education and Outreach

  • Undergraduate and Graduate Curriculum

    • Courses

    • MIT Course on Global Climate Change

  • Undergraduate, Graduate, and Postdoc Research

    • Graduate Students – Purdue

    • MIT – UROP

    • Postdocs – UAF, MIT

  • Public Outreach

  • Presentations: Policy Meetings/Workshops

  • MIT Global Change Forum

  • MIT Knight Science Journalism Fellows


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