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Commercial (Non Government Sponsored) Health Plan Medical Cost and Premium Trends

Commercial (Non Government Sponsored) Health Plan Medical Cost and Premium Trends. Contribution to % Cost Medical Cost Medical Cost Trend Increase

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Commercial (Non Government Sponsored) Health Plan Medical Cost and Premium Trends

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  1. Commercial (Non Government Sponsored)Health Plan Medical Costand Premium Trends Contribution to % Cost Medical Cost Medical Cost Trend Increase Component% of Medical Costs2002E2003E2005E2003E Pharmaceuticals 15% 14% 12% 11% 1.8% Hospital Inpatient 25 10 9 7 2.3 Outpatient 25 15 15 11 3.8 Physician 35 8 7 72.5 100% 11.2% 10.4% 8.5% 10.4% Premium Rate Increase 13-14% 13% 9.5% Source: Alliance Capital Management L.P. estimates

  2. U.S. Pharmaceutical Cost Trends (All Payors)1992-2005EAssumes No Medicare Drug Benefit Source: IMS Health and Alliance Capital Management L.P. estimates

  3. U.S. Pharmaceutical Market$ Sales Growth Source: IMS Health

  4. U.S. Pharmaceutical MarketDrug Price Inflation Year-to-year % change Source: IMS Health

  5. U.S. Pharmaceutical MarketPrescription Growth Year-to-year change Source: IMS Health

  6. GENERICS ARE GAINING TRACTION % Dollars % Total Prescriptions Dispensed Source: IMS Health

  7. US PHARMACEUTICAL MARKETPatent Expiration Exposure Worldwide Revenue for Products Off-Patent Years 2002-2006 Source: Merrill Lynch

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