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Reliability Must-Run Analysis 2008 – 2017 BTA Workshop

Reliability Must-Run Analysis 2008 – 2017 BTA Workshop. Paul Smith APS Resource Planning May 22, 2008. Outline of Presentation. 2008 RMR Study Process Description of network. Phoenix load serving capability & Transmission limits . RMR - demand, energy and duration

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Reliability Must-Run Analysis 2008 – 2017 BTA Workshop

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  1. Reliability Must-Run Analysis2008 – 2017 BTA Workshop Paul Smith APS Resource Planning May 22, 2008

  2. Outline of Presentation • 2008 RMR Study Process • Description of network. • Phoenix load serving capability & Transmission limits . • RMR - demand, energy and duration • Economic impact of transmission constraint • Observations BTA Workshop

  3. RMR Economic Analysis • New Energy PROMOD production-cost simulator • SRP and APS control areas modeled • Hourly least cost dispatch with transmission constraints • Annual cost to serve area load determined • Study repeated ignoring local import limit • Difference is the RMR cost BTA Workshop

  4. Phoenix Area Load 2011 BTA Workshop

  5. 2011 Phoenix Load Serving Capability 2011 RMR (Voltage Limit) 18000 17000 16000 3678, 15436 15000 2011 Forecasted Load 14000 Valley Load (MW) 13433 13000 PV Rudd 500 kV Outage, Low reactive power reserves 12000 0,11245 11000 PV Rudd 500 kV Outage, Low reactive power reserves 10000 9000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Valley Generation ( MW) BTA Workshop

  6. 2011 Phoenix Load Durationand RMR Conditions 10042 MW BTA Workshop

  7. 2011 Phoenix Area Energy Phoenix Area Total Load = 58,253 GWh $0M incremental cost BTA Workshop

  8. Phoenix Area Load 2016 BTA Workshop

  9. 2016 RMR (Thermal Limit) 18000 Outage of Ormes -Rudd 230 kV ckt 1 overloads the ckt 2 3678, 17747 17000 16000 2016 Forecasted load 15542 15000 14000 Valley Load (MW) 0, 13136 13000 Outage of PV-Rudd 500 kV line overloads Rudd-Liberty 12000 230 kV line 11000 10000 9000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Valley Generation ( MW) 2016 Phoenix Load Serving Capability BTA Workshop

  10. 2016 Phoenix Load Durationand RMR Conditions 13289 MW BTA Workshop

  11. 2016 Phoenix Area Energy Phoenix Area Total Load = 67,815 GWh $0M incremental cost BTA Workshop

  12. Phoenix RMR Observations • APS load is expected to exceed import capability for 317 hours in 2011, and 285 hours in 2016. RMR energy represents less than 1% of the total energy. • All the RMR hours are dispatched “in the money” in both 2011 and 2016. No additional cost to run local generation. BTA Workshop

  13. 2011 Yuma Transmission System Critical Outage: Hassayampa-N.G. 500kV Limiting Element: Pilot Knob-Yucca 161kV BTA Workshop

  14. 2011 Yuma Load Serving Capability BTA Workshop

  15. 2011 Yuma Load Durationand RMR Conditions BTA Workshop

  16. 2011 APS Yuma Energy APS Yuma Area Total Load = 2,045 GWh $1M incremental cost BTA Workshop

  17. 2016 Yuma Transmission System Critical Outage: N.Gila-Imprlvly 500kV Limiting Element: Gila 230kV/161kV XFMR BTA Workshop

  18. 2016 Yuma Load Serving Capability BTA Workshop

  19. 2016Yuma Load Durationand RMR Conditions BTA Workshop

  20. 2016 APS Yuma Energy APS Yuma Area Total Load = 2,382 GWh $0M incremental cost BTA Workshop

  21. Yuma RMR Observations • Yuma load is expected to exceed import capability for 2,258 hours in 2011, and 719 hours in 2016. • Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is $1M in 2011 and $0M in 2016. • Addition of 96mw of generation in Yuma in 2008 and a new 500kV line from the PV area to North Gila and a 230kV line from North Gila into the Yuma load area effectively manage RMR conditions. BTA Workshop

  22. Overall RMR Observations • Benefits of local generation • Increase reliability • Local voltage support • Contingency response • Operating flexibility • Reduced losses • Lower transmission investment BTA Workshop

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