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Input for next SCOSTEP program after CAWSES-II

Dec 25, 2012 Dec 28, 2012 rev.B. Input for next SCOSTEP program after CAWSES-II. Japanese SCOSTEP committee of Science Council of Japan (Chair: Prof. Tatsuki Ogino , Nagoya Univ.). Suggested topics for new Task Groups. SOLAR VARIABILITY Earth-affecting s olar transients See appendix 2

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Input for next SCOSTEP program after CAWSES-II

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  1. Dec 25, 2012 Dec 28, 2012 rev.B Input for next SCOSTEP programafter CAWSES-II Japanese SCOSTEP committee of Science Council of Japan (Chair: Prof. TatsukiOgino, Nagoya Univ.)

  2. Suggested topics for new Task Groups SOLAR VARIABILITY • Earth-affecting solar transients • See appendix 2 • Extreme events in the solar-terrestrial system • Solar maximum and declining phase • 2014-18 will be the maximum and declining phase of solar activity • Discrimination of global trends and solar activity COUPLINGS • Latitudinal coupling in atmosphere and geospace • e.g. energy transfer from high to low latitude during geomagnetic storm • Coupling between equatorial and mid-latitude/polar ionosphere • Atmospheric coupling between different latitudes and hemispheres • Whole atmosphere and geospace coupling • Expansion of TG-4/CAWSES-II to global scale and into geospace • Effect of geospace disturbance to the atmosphere IMPORTANT ISSUES • Turbulence/small scale processes in solar-terrestrial phenomena • A new issue arising from high-resolution observation and modeling • Combination of observation and modeling (in space weather) • Data assimilation for precise forecasting • Atmospheric dynamics for ground-ionosphere electric current INFRASTRUCTURE • Capacity Building • Informatics including big data.

  3. Keywords for the titleof next SCOSTEP program after CAWSES-II • No ‘CAWSES-III’, but the basic concepts of CAWSES should continue. • Climate, Weather, and Impact • Extreme, Severe, Space storm • 5 year project is preferable Help for wording needed from English-speaking members.

  4. (appendix 1) Possible large-scale projects expected in 2014-2018,which Japanese group will organize or join • Solar Telescope (Kyoto Univ.) • ERG satellite for radiation belts (launch: 2015) • Hinode will keep its operation • IUGONET (database development activity) • PANSY radar will be in full operation in Antarctica • EISCAT-3D will be in operation (international collaboration) • Equatorial atmosphere radar is newly proposed. • Multi-point ground network will expand to subauroral latitudes and Asia/Africa • International school activity will be kept by Kyoto Univ. and Kyushu Univ.

  5. (appendix 2) CAWSES-ISEST Project International Study for Earth-Affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) SOC Members: Jie Zhang (USA), B. Vr?nak (Co-Chair, Croatia), A. Asai (Japan), P. Gallagher (Ireland), A. Lara (Mexico), N. Lugaz (USA), C. Mostl (Austria), A. Rouillard (France), N. Srivastav (India), Y. Yermolaev (Russia), Y.-M. Wang (China), D. Webb (USA) An international effort including observations, data analysis , modeling, and transition from science to prediction operation. The ISEST tasks are (1) Create a comprehensive database of Earth-affecting solar and heliospheric transient events (2) Characterize and quantify the kinematic and morphological properties of transient events (3) Develop advanced theoretical models of the propagation and evolution of heliospheric transients (4) Develop advanced 3D numerical models of prediction of ICME arrival and the expected strength of space weather impact (5) Prediction tool development (6) Public outreach and education

  6. 1.1

  7. 1.2

  8. Next program interval (2014-2018) is a solar maximum and declining phase. Topics on flare/CME/storm can be approached. Possibility toward the solar ground minimum should be explored.

  9. Discrimination of global trends and solar activity EISCAT observations for 31 years at Tromsø, Norway (69.6 deg N) Long-term trends in MTI region Altitude [km] Ion temperature variations Thermosphere cooled over the past 31 years Ti(obs) - Ti(fit) [K] Ti_trend = -1.3±0.36 K/year Lastovicka et al. Science [2006] Year Ti(fit)MgII = A + B·SZA + C·(MgII) + D·(MgII)2

  10. Latitudinal/whole-atmosphere coupling in the atmosphere and geospace electromagnetic coupling between hemispheres particle and energy input from the magnetosphere radiation belts plasmasheet plasmasphere magnetosphere plasma waves electromagnetic coupling between E and F region E-field penetration ionosphere ionospheric instabilities wave penetration to thermosphere atmospheric waves from aurora aurora secondary waves mass transport O/N2 ratio change PMC/PMSE wave breaking momentum release mesospheric duct mesospheric duct middle atmosphere gravity waves tides planetary waves mesospheric jet equatorial fountain PSC mass transport tropospheric disturbance troposphere equator pole K. Shiokawa

  11. 3.1

  12. Combination of observation and modeling (in space weather)-Data assimilation for precise forecasting Observation Input Modeling Validation Data Assimilation Data processing Nowcast Forecast

  13. Atmospheric dynamics for ground-ionosphere electric current WAVE-4 structure and lightning activity Monthly variation of lightning activity Thunderstorm is one of the main generator in the global electric circuit

  14. Japan contribution to SCOSTEP-related outreach/capacity building • Global Contribution • ISWI & MAGDAS school • Nov. 2010 at Egypt, Aug. 2011 at Nigeria, Sep. 2012 at Indonesia, 2013 at Cote d’lvoire (scheduled) • 5 – 10 lecturers from Japan at each school • Regional contribution • JSPS Asia-Africa Science Platform Program • 2008-2011 with India & Indonesia (Tsuda) • 2013-2016 with Nigeria, Indonesia, Cote d’lvoire, Thailand (Shiokawa) • Structure for outreach/capacity building • ICSWSE (International Center for Space Weather Science and Education) at Kyushu University (2012-) • IUGONET (Inter-university Upper atmosphere Global Observation NETwork) (2009-2014) • Kyoto U., Nagoya U., Tohoku U., Kyushu U., NIPR

  15. INFRASTRUCTURE- Informatics including big data Big Data Database Super Computer Big Data Database Big Data Database Data Mining Simulation Data Assimilation Data Analysis Super Computer Modeling Super Computer User User User User User User

  16. R1

  17. A mission to elucidate acceleration and loss mechanisms of relativistic electrons around Earth during space storms. ERG mission will - achieve comprehensive plasma observations with magnetic & electric field, wave, and particle detectors with a wide energy coverage to capture acceleration, transport, and loss of charged particles in Geospace - establish plasma observatory under strong radiation environment. ERG ●Launch: 2015/12 ●Orbit : - apogee altitude: 4.5Re / perigee altitude: 300km - inclination ≦31° - spin-axis stabilized (sun oriented) ●Mission Life : > 1year ●Science Instruments: - PPE (Plasma/Particle) - electron detectors LEP-e: 12eV-20keV, MEP-e: 10keV-80keV HEP-e: 70keV-2MeV, XEP-e: 200keV-20MeV - ion detectors with mass discrimination LEP-i: 10eV-20keV/q, MEP-i: 10keV-180keV/q - PWE (DC Electric Field/Plasma Waves) - electric field (DC-10MHz) - magnetic field (1Hz- 100 kHz) - MGF (DC Magnetic Field, 128 Hz sampling) Strong synergy with ground-network observations, modeling studies, and international spacecraft fleet. ERG project office: ERG_adm@st4a.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp

  18. Hinode EUV Imaging Spectrometer （EIS） Solar Optical Telescope（SOT） • “Hinode”, as on-orbit solar observatory accessible from over the world, will continue scientific operations and provide unique data of the Sun. All the Hinode data is open to any scientists. X-Ray Telescope（XRT） High spatial resolution images of the corona in soft X-rays (left) and photosphere (right) EUV imaging spectroscopic measurements allow to diagnose plasma dynamics in the coronal structures Monitoring the magnetic field at polar regions, which is a key information for solar dynamo. North Polar region 2011 North Polar region 2008 Fe XII intensity Fe XII Doppler velocity

  19. Inter-university Upper atmosphere Global Observation NETwork Various kind, huge amount of data spread over institutes and universities Create a metadata database for cross-search of these distributed data Promote new types of upper atmospheric research by analysis of multi-disciplinary data

  20. PANSY(Program of Antarctic Syowa MST/IS) radar:2014full operation 69S, 39E 2009 Funded by MEXT/Japan March 2011, first light observation April 2012, started continuous research observation with 1/4 system (largest atmospheric radar in the Antarctic) 2014 Full system operation Troposphere/Stratosphere observation on May 5-8, 2012 20 20 Main organization: NIPR, U. of Tokyo, Kyoto Univ.

  21. EISCAT_3D: The next generation international atmosphere and geospace research radar Conceptional drawing An image of multi-static radar observations First operation in 2017 • Location • Northern Scandinavia • System configuration • 1 core site:~10,000 cross dipole Yagi antennas & Tx/Rx modules • 4 remote sites: ~10,000 cross dipole Yagi antennas & Rx modules at each site The antenna elements will be built on an elevated platform to prevent problems with snow. (From Swedish national proposal) Implementation planand current situation The European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) selected the EISCAT_3D for inclusion in the 2008 update of its Roadmap for Large-Scale European Research Infrastructures. Development of the EISCAT_3D started with the EU FP6 funded Design Study (2005-2009) and is now continued with the EU FP7 funded Preparatory Phase (2010-2014). Norway and Sweden submitted applications towards construction of the EISCAT_3D in 2012 and 2013. Finnish Roadmap proposal including financing is currently planned. The construction cost is about 132MEuro in total. A core site(Tx/Rx) and remote sites (Rx only)

  22. Equatorial MU radarExpansion of Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) We plan to expand the EAR by installing Equatorial MU radar (EMU). The new EMU is the MU-radar class radar that is 10 times more sensitive to the EAR. This plan is included as part of “Japanese Master Plan of Large Research Projects 2011” by Science Council of Japan. Equatorial MU radar GAW atmosphere monitor station Boundary layer radar EAR Meteor radar EAR site seen on Google Earth EAR control room Meteorological measurement Airglow imager, F-P interferometer (STEL) Multipurpose lidar (TMU) X-band meteoroligcal radar (Shimane U.) GPE receivers (STEL) Ionosonde (NICT) EMU will be installed at north of EAR

  23. Study of energization and loss of high-energy particles in geospace • using multi-point ground and satellite network at subaurorallatitudes radiation belt particles 60o Van Allen Probes ERG THEMIS VLF chorus Energization and loss of radiation belt particles occur in the inner magnetosphere through interaction with various VLF/ULF waves and background fieldvariations. plasmasphere 70o injection from plasma sheet solar wind 80o sun EMIC/Pc1 pulsation Pc5 pulsation magnetosphere Possible ground stations at subauroral latitudes LEO satellites VLF/ULF waves aurora auroral particles camera THEMIS radiation belt particles magnetometer loop antenna wave-particle interactions Van Allen Probes ERG MLAT/MLON MAP K. Shiokawa

  24. Multi-point ground network will expand over Asia andAfrica OMTI airglow instruments EISCAT_3D radar aurora wave SD radar NOx,O3 magne/GPS IPS solar wind magne/GPS MUR magne/GPS aerosol magne/GPS Solar telescope Solar wind airglow airglow airglow Equatorial MU radar SOLAR-C ERG IUGONET database cosmic ray NOx,O3 MAGDAS magnetometers existing PANSY planned 北海道大　　東北大　　信州大　　気象研　　 NICT　 極地研　 東京大　名古屋大　 京都大　 九州大　　　

  25. R9

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