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Review and Revision of Draft Round 7.0 Growth Forecasts

Item 11. Review and Revision of Draft Round 7.0 Growth Forecasts. Paul DesJardin Department of Human Services, Planning and Public Safety and Robert Griffiths Department of Transportation Planning National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Meeting July 20, 2005.

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Review and Revision of Draft Round 7.0 Growth Forecasts

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  1. Item 11 Review and Revision of Draft Round 7.0 Growth Forecasts Paul DesJardin Department of Human Services, Planning and Public Safety and Robert Griffiths Department of Transportation Planning National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Meeting July 20, 2005

  2. Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts • February 2005 • Cooperative Forecasting Subcommittee and Planning Directors Technical Advisory Committee (PDTAC) approve draft Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts • D.C. Office of Planning expressed concern about the imbalance in job and household growth shown in the draft forecasts, particularly in the 2020 to 2030 period • March 2005 • Metropolitan Development Policy Committee (MDPC) approves draft Round 7.0 Forecasts • This approval is subject to an evaluation of the impacts of the new forecasts by the PDTAC that would examine the jobs-housing imbalance issue.

  3. Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts • March to June 2005 • PDTAC meets to evaluate the draft Round 7.0 Forecasts and discuss concerns about the jobs-housing imbalance. • PDTAC members from Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince William counties identified a total of 28,000 additional households that could be added to their draft Round 7.0 Forecasts. • Staff presented an analysis showing that, even after accounting for the additional 28,000 forecast households and projected increases in-commuting from areas outside the Washington region, there was still a sizeable gap in the draft Round 7.0 Forecasts between the significant number of new jobs foreseen and the limited amount of new housing expected to be built in the region under current local plans and zoning. • After consideration of several ways that forecast jobs and housing growth might be brought into closer alignment, the PDTAC agreed that the most reasonable assumption was that local jurisdictions over time would re-plan and rezone land sufficient to provide for the additional housing that was needed.

  4. Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts • July 2005 • PDTAC, acknowledging the need for re-planning and rezoning as local jurisdiction approached build-out of their current plans, recommended that the draft Round 7.0 household forecasts be increased by 92,000 household or 3.8%. • MDPC approves revised draft Round 7.0 Forecasts for use in the TPB Air Quality Conformity Analysis of TIP and CLRP and notes in its approval resolution that: WHEREAS, collectively, local plans and zoning in the metropolitan Washington region do not currently provide for the amount of housing necessary to provide workers to fill forecast jobs for the metropolitan area; and WHEREAS, in the past forecasts adopted by the Board were primarily based on local plans and zoning capacities as provide for in locally adopted land use plans because there was sufficient capacity in local plans for the modeled period; and WHEREAS, to provide sufficient housing in the out years 2020 to 2030 to meet employment projections it is necessary to anticipate that certain localities over time will re-plan and rezone land sufficient to provide for the additional housing, the assumption of which is consistent with current development trends and economic and demographic inter-relationships.

  5. Revised Draft Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts • Change in 2030 Household Forecasts • Central Jurisdiction Household Forecasts would increase by 16,000 households or 3.2%. • (DC +8,800; Arlington +3,200; Alexandria +4,000) • Inner Suburb Household Forecasts would increase by 51,600 households or 4.1% • (Montgomery +16,300; Prince Georges’s +8,000; Fairfax County +27,000; Fairfax City +200, Falls Church +100). • Outer Suburb Household Forecasts would increase by 24,400 households or 3.7%. • (Loudoun +4,800; Prince William +5,800; Manassas +100; Calvert County +500; Charles County +2,900; Frederick County +4,900; Stafford County + 5.4).

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