July 13, 2011

2. Redistricting And The 2012 Election Bernadette BuddeSenior Vice President, Political AnalysisMichael DavisVice President, Political Programs July 13, 2011

3. BAB’S PRINCIPLES • It never turns out exactly as the party operatives think • Ten years is a very long time (3 presidential elections) • This version feels less partisan than ‘70/’80/’90/2000 • Incumbents serve in current districts (decide on your grassroots strategy) • Incumbents run in new districts (decide on your PAC strategy) • Demographic reality outweighs lines • None of this makes the issues go away

4. BAB’S TERMINOLOGY • Merged pairs • Two incumbents running against each other • In primary:  example, LA-3 Boustany (R) and Landry (R) – eliminates one seat for the party regardless of primary winner • In general:  example, IA-3 Boswell (D) and Latham (R) – eliminates one seat for the party losing the general election • Seats without incumbents where a freshman will be elected • Consequences of redistricting • Added seat:  example, TX gains four seats • Redistricted hole:  example, “gaps” where an incumbent could have run but due to district realignment decides not to run; usually occurs in states losing seats (such as IL) or not gaining seats (such as CA) • Traditional open seats • Incumbent lost in primary to a challenger • Incumbent runs for another office:  example IN-6 Pence (R) • Incumbent not seeking reelection:  example OK-2 Boren (D)

5. BAB’S TERMINOLOGY (cont.) • Don’t make yourself crazy • If you don’t keep track yourself, find a source you feel is reliable and stick with that source; every pundit will label and then tally in a slightly different way. • In the end, there are only 435 districts.  If your list of plus/minus doesn’t add up to 435, the list is wrong. • We don’t know the partisan impact of redistricting until we know the outcome of all general elections • Easiest way to get House to add back up to 435 is to count victories for one party as they occur • Tabulate the number of seats gained or lost for one party with a baseline of where each party began going into election night

11. Hispanic Voters& Why The GOP Is In Trouble

12. U.S. POPULATION GROWTH, 2005-2010

14. HISPANIC % OF POPULATION,UNDER 18

16. FOR GOP TO WIN WHITE HOUSE IN 2012, THE GOP NEEDS TO WIN THE FOLLOWING STATES(ORDERED BY 2008 MAP,OBAMA WIN %)

20. TEXAS GOES DEMOCRAT IN 2020(ORDERED BY 2008 MAP,OBAMA WIN %)

25. EXPECTED PARTISAN CHANGE-3 REP / +6 DEM (As of July 13, 2011)

26. REDISTRICTING TIMELINE

27. REDISTRICTING TIMELINE

28. ARKANSAS

29. OLD - 2001 AR CD MAP NEW - 2011 AR CD MAP

30. ARKANSAS (3-1 REP)

31. ILLINOIS

32. OLD – 2001 CD MAP NEW – 2011 CD MAP

33. ILLINOIS (11-8 REP)

34. INDIANA

35. OLD – 2001 IN CD MAP NEW - 2011 IN CD MAP

36. INDIANA (6-3 REP)

37. IOWA

38. OLD – 2001 IA CD MAP NEW – 2011 IA CD MAP

39. IOWA (3-2 DEM)

40. LOUISIANA

41. OLD – 2001 LA CD MAP NEW – 2011 LA CD MAP LA-03 MAP

42. LOUISIANA (6-1 REP)

43. MISSOURI

44. OLD – 2001 MO CD MAP NEW – 2011 MO CD MAP

45. MISSOURI (6-3 REP)

46. NEBRASKA

47. OLD – 2001 NE CD MAP NEW – 2011 NE CD MAP

48. NEBRASKA (3-0 REP)

49. OKLAHOMA

50. OLD – 2001 OK CD MAP NEW – 2011 OK CD MAP