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Revision of National Accounts Time Series in the Netherlands

Revision of National Accounts Time Series in the Netherlands. Ruurd Schoonhoven ( RSNN@CBS.NL) Gert den Bakker, Bram de Boo, Ruben van der Helm Statistics Netherlands. Time series revisions in the Netherlands. Systematic time series revisions :

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Revision of National Accounts Time Series in the Netherlands

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  1. Revision of National Accounts Time Series in the Netherlands Ruurd Schoonhoven ( RSNN@CBS.NL) Gert den Bakker, Bram de Boo, Ruben van der Helm Statistics Netherlands

  2. Time series revisions in the Netherlands • Systematic time series revisions : • - after benchmark revisions of 1977, 1987, 1995, 2001 • for supply and use (and I/O) tables, sector accounts and labour accounts • Different methods were used …. • …. with different costs (time, resources) … • …. and with different quality of results • How to proceed in future?

  3. Suitability criteria for time series revisions • Resources • Time • Quality • Transparency • Flexibility

  4. Approaches to time series revisions • 1. Annual backward calculation • 2. Benchmark years and interpolation

  5. I. Annual backward calculation • I.1 From microdata, with new concepts and classifications (‘from scratch’) • I.2 Adjustments superimposed on balanced pre-revision data • I.3 Linking pre-revision (or revised) growth rates to results for revision year

  6. II. Benchmark years and interpolation • II.1 Benchmark years ‘from scratch’ • II.2 Benchmark years by superposition of adjustments on balanced pre-revision data • Intervening years by interpolation with pre-revision (or revised) growth rates

  7. The 2001 time series revision • Conceptual revisions superimposed on pre-revision data year by year (I.2) • Statistical revisions interpolated between benchmark years (II.2) • Balancing of the results, year by year from 2000 back to 1969/1980 • Strict process, good quality results, but (again) required much time and resources…..

  8. Requirements for futuretime series revisions • Harmonisation of revision policy within EU • Users want revised time series faster • Budget reduction

  9. Points of consideration (1) • EU regulations: I/O tables back to 2000, main aggregates back to 1980 • Main user: detailed >30 yr time series

  10. Points of consideration (2) • From scratch or using pre-revision results • Working level of detail • Compiling the time series in parallel with the revision year

  11. Points of consideration (3) • How to avoid (reduce) the need for year-by-year balancing? • Automatic balancing methods

  12. Discussion • International harmonisation of revision policy for time series? • Inventory of methods currently used in different countries

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