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National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts - a view of the crisis. UCC 9 March 2011. Michael Connolly Integration and Large Cases Division, National Accounts. A Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis by Jess Bachman

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National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts - a view of the crisis

UCC 9 March 2011

Michael Connolly

Integration and Large Cases Division,

National Accounts


A Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis by Jess Bachman

Jess from WallStats put this together for the Mint blog. I'm pretty sure they have him on retainer.


GDP – GNP

Gap widening


European comparisons gdp seasonally adjusted chain linked
European ComparisonsGDP Seasonally Adjusted, Chain Linked


Expenditure components of GDP (2009)

GDP = C + I + G + X - M

Exports

97%

Consumption

52%

Investment

11.8%

Government

15.8%

+

+

+

-

= GDP

Imports

76.6%

6


Exports imports of goods and services as gdp 2006

Globalisation –Impact

Exports & Imports of Goods and Services as % GDP - 2006




GDP by Sector of Origin/Expenditure Based – Bread Economy 2010

Miller buys wheat makes flour sells flour to baker for €2 per bag

Baker buys flour and makes bread sells bread at €4 to shop

Farmer grows wheat sells to miller @ €1 per bag

Shop buys bread and sells it to customers at €6.00

  • GDP by Sector of Origin :

  • Sum of value added :Farmer (€1) +Miller (€1) +Baker €2

  • +Shopkeeper €2) = €6.00 = GDP Bread Economy

  • Expenditure Based GDP Estimate :

    • Total sales of Bread to Households = €6.00 = GDP Expenditure


  • How do we calculate constant prices
    How Do We Calculate Constant Prices? 2010

    • Several methods

      • deflation of current price data

        • using CPI for example

      • extrapolation using volume index

        • using Industrial Production Index or RSI

      • double deflation

        • separately deflate outputs and inputs


    Chain linking rationale
    Chain Linking - Rationale 2010

    • Previously used a fixed base year (1995).

    • Each year’s GVA calculated to a base of previous year.

    • Benefit of more up-to-date weights than with fixed base calculations.

    • Year-on-year changes then linked together and GVA expressed in prices of reference year.

    • Components do not add to total GDP, as GDP is chain-linked separately using sum of components’ GVA’s at previous year prices.

    • Statistical discrepancy cannot be calculated.


    Creating a chain linked series of gdp referenced to 2008
    Creating a Chain Linked Series of GDP 2010referenced to 2008

    For 2003 Growth rate = 136,219/ 130,464 = 4.4% . Chain link 2003 to 2004

    158,223/1.044 = 151,267


    Inputs into national accounts
    Inputs into National Accounts 2010

    Macro

    Micro – Large Cases Unit

    Consistency of LCU data across survey areas

    Consistency of Prices data

    Consistency of administrative data - Corporation Tax and Trade Data

    • Balance of Payments

    • Industry and Services statistics

    • Prices data

    • Labour Market

    • Administrative data - Corp Tax etc.

    • Trade

    • FISIM


    Globalisation in the irish economy

    Globalisation –Impact 2010

    Globalisation in the Irish Economy

    Irish economy has developed into a highly Globalised Economy

    For MNCs in Ireland top 10 account for 34% of value of exports and 33% of imports


    Large cases consistency network
    Large Cases & Consistency Network 2010

    Large Cases Unit &Consistency


    Employment in industry 1985 2005

    Globalisation –Impact 2010

    Employment in Industry 1985-2005




    Summary and conclusions

    Globalisation –Impact 2010

    Summary and Conclusions

    • The quarterly National Accounts give a comprehensive picture of where the economy is positioned

    • Benefits from Chain linking of constant price data compared to fixed base year indexation

    • Extensive data sources obtained both within and outside of CSO

    • Strategy for dealing with MNC statistics through Consistency Unit

    • Distortions to Macro economic variables

      • GDP

      • Productivity


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