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National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts - a view of the crisis. UCC 9 March 2011. Michael Connolly Integration and Large Cases Division, National Accounts. A Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis by Jess Bachman

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national accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts - a view of the crisis

UCC 9 March 2011

Michael Connolly

Integration and Large Cases Division,

National Accounts

slide2

A Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis by Jess Bachman

Jess from WallStats put this together for the Mint blog. I\'m pretty sure they have him on retainer.

slide4

GDP – GNP

Gap widening

slide6

Expenditure components of GDP (2009)

GDP = C + I + G + X - M

Exports

97%

Consumption

52%

Investment

11.8%

Government

15.8%

+

+

+

-

= GDP

Imports

76.6%

6

slide11

GDP by Sector of Origin/Expenditure Based – Bread Economy

Miller buys wheat makes flour sells flour to baker for €2 per bag

Baker buys flour and makes bread sells bread at €4 to shop

Farmer grows wheat sells to miller @ €1 per bag

Shop buys bread and sells it to customers at €6.00

    • GDP by Sector of Origin :
    • Sum of value added :Farmer (€1) +Miller (€1) +Baker €2
    • +Shopkeeper €2) = €6.00 = GDP Bread Economy
  • Expenditure Based GDP Estimate :
    • Total sales of Bread to Households = €6.00 = GDP Expenditure
how do we calculate constant prices
How Do We Calculate Constant Prices?
  • Several methods
    • deflation of current price data
      • using CPI for example
    • extrapolation using volume index
      • using Industrial Production Index or RSI
    • double deflation
      • separately deflate outputs and inputs
chain linking rationale
Chain Linking - Rationale
  • Previously used a fixed base year (1995).
  • Each year’s GVA calculated to a base of previous year.
  • Benefit of more up-to-date weights than with fixed base calculations.
  • Year-on-year changes then linked together and GVA expressed in prices of reference year.
  • Components do not add to total GDP, as GDP is chain-linked separately using sum of components’ GVA’s at previous year prices.
  • Statistical discrepancy cannot be calculated.
creating a chain linked series of gdp referenced to 2008
Creating a Chain Linked Series of GDPreferenced to 2008

For 2003 Growth rate = 136,219/ 130,464 = 4.4% . Chain link 2003 to 2004

158,223/1.044 = 151,267

inputs into national accounts
Inputs into National Accounts

Macro

Micro – Large Cases Unit

Consistency of LCU data across survey areas

Consistency of Prices data

Consistency of administrative data - Corporation Tax and Trade Data

  • Balance of Payments
  • Industry and Services statistics
  • Prices data
  • Labour Market
  • Administrative data - Corp Tax etc.
  • Trade
  • FISIM
globalisation in the irish economy
Globalisation –ImpactGlobalisation in the Irish Economy

Irish economy has developed into a highly Globalised Economy

For MNCs in Ireland top 10 account for 34% of value of exports and 33% of imports

large cases consistency network
Large Cases & Consistency Network

Large Cases Unit &Consistency

summary and conclusions
Globalisation –ImpactSummary and Conclusions
  • The quarterly National Accounts give a comprehensive picture of where the economy is positioned
  • Benefits from Chain linking of constant price data compared to fixed base year indexation
  • Extensive data sources obtained both within and outside of CSO
  • Strategy for dealing with MNC statistics through Consistency Unit
  • Distortions to Macro economic variables
    • GDP
    • Productivity
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