National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis
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National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts - a view of the crisis. UCC 9 March 2011. Michael Connolly Integration and Large Cases Division, National Accounts. A Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis by Jess Bachman

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National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts - a view of the crisis

UCC 9 March 2011

Michael Connolly

Integration and Large Cases Division,

National Accounts


National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

A Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis by Jess Bachman

Jess from WallStats put this together for the Mint blog. I'm pretty sure they have him on retainer.


National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

GDP – GNP

Gap widening


European comparisons gdp seasonally adjusted chain linked

European ComparisonsGDP Seasonally Adjusted, Chain Linked


National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

Expenditure components of GDP (2009)

GDP = C + I + G + X - M

Exports

97%

Consumption

52%

Investment

11.8%

Government

15.8%

+

+

+

-

= GDP

Imports

76.6%

6


Exports imports of goods and services as gdp 2006

Globalisation –Impact

Exports & Imports of Goods and Services as % GDP - 2006


National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

GDP by Sector of Origin (2009)

= GDP


National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

Proportions of GDP by Activity - Value Added Type 2002 - 2010


National accounts quarterly national accounts a view of the crisis

GDP by Sector of Origin/Expenditure Based – Bread Economy

Miller buys wheat makes flour sells flour to baker for €2 per bag

Baker buys flour and makes bread sells bread at €4 to shop

Farmer grows wheat sells to miller @ €1 per bag

Shop buys bread and sells it to customers at €6.00

  • GDP by Sector of Origin :

  • Sum of value added :Farmer (€1) +Miller (€1) +Baker €2

  • +Shopkeeper €2) = €6.00 = GDP Bread Economy

  • Expenditure Based GDP Estimate :

    • Total sales of Bread to Households = €6.00 = GDP Expenditure


  • How do we calculate constant prices

    How Do We Calculate Constant Prices?

    • Several methods

      • deflation of current price data

        • using CPI for example

      • extrapolation using volume index

        • using Industrial Production Index or RSI

      • double deflation

        • separately deflate outputs and inputs


    Chain linking rationale

    Chain Linking - Rationale

    • Previously used a fixed base year (1995).

    • Each year’s GVA calculated to a base of previous year.

    • Benefit of more up-to-date weights than with fixed base calculations.

    • Year-on-year changes then linked together and GVA expressed in prices of reference year.

    • Components do not add to total GDP, as GDP is chain-linked separately using sum of components’ GVA’s at previous year prices.

    • Statistical discrepancy cannot be calculated.


    Creating a chain linked series of gdp referenced to 2008

    Creating a Chain Linked Series of GDPreferenced to 2008

    For 2003 Growth rate = 136,219/ 130,464 = 4.4% . Chain link 2003 to 2004

    158,223/1.044 = 151,267


    Inputs into national accounts

    Inputs into National Accounts

    Macro

    Micro – Large Cases Unit

    Consistency of LCU data across survey areas

    Consistency of Prices data

    Consistency of administrative data - Corporation Tax and Trade Data

    • Balance of Payments

    • Industry and Services statistics

    • Prices data

    • Labour Market

    • Administrative data - Corp Tax etc.

    • Trade

    • FISIM


    Globalisation in the irish economy

    Globalisation –Impact

    Globalisation in the Irish Economy

    Irish economy has developed into a highly Globalised Economy

    For MNCs in Ireland top 10 account for 34% of value of exports and 33% of imports


    Large cases consistency network

    Large Cases & Consistency Network

    Large Cases Unit &Consistency


    Employment in industry 1985 2005

    Globalisation –Impact

    Employment in Industry 1985-2005


    Industry output by ownership 1985 2005

    Industry Output - by ownership 1985 - 2005


    Numbers employed and output per head

    Numbers Employed and Output per Head


    Summary and conclusions

    Globalisation –Impact

    Summary and Conclusions

    • The quarterly National Accounts give a comprehensive picture of where the economy is positioned

    • Benefits from Chain linking of constant price data compared to fixed base year indexation

    • Extensive data sources obtained both within and outside of CSO

    • Strategy for dealing with MNC statistics through Consistency Unit

    • Distortions to Macro economic variables

      • GDP

      • Productivity


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