Climate Change Adaptation Planning – Next Steps?

1. Climate Change Adaptation Planning – Next Steps? Stewart Cohen Environment Canada and University of British Columbia

2. 2 Pathway for Adaptation Engagement(Source: Gardner et al., 2009)

3. 3 Climate change information flow to stakeholders? • Climate Information • Forecasts • Trends • Scenarios outreach • Stakeholder Interest • Regional development • Jobs • Liability • Quality of life

4. Impacts Modeling/Visualization Helps Explore Futures and Enable Dialogue on Responses • It allows us to “fast forward” through time and simulate impacts under different scenarios • We can also explore how actions (or lack) might affect future outcomes – enables dialogue with decision makers! 2050 2009 Modelling suite A.K.A.Our “time machine” Slide from Harry Nelson

5. 5 Climate Change: Pathway for Translation (adapted from Cohen, 2010) • Climate information • Forecasts • Trends • Scenarios • Filter / medium • Hydrology model • Forest model • Habitat model • Decision support • tool • Practitioner interest • Risk assessment • Design standards • Operating rules • Allocations delivery translation

6. 6 Climate Information flow to Practitioners • Climate information • Forecasts • Trends • Scenarios • Filter / medium • Hydrology model • Forest model • Habitat model • Water demand model • Decision support • tool outreach delivery delivery • Socio-Economic information • Forecasts • Trends • Scenarios outreach translation • Stakeholder Interest • Regional development • Jobs • Liability • Quality of life • Practitioner interest • Risk assessment • Design standards • Operating rules • Allocations extension policy Adapted from Cohen and Waddell (2009); Cohen, (2010)

7. 7 Care and feeding of climate change “extension agents” …but what about those ‘filters’? How do those various impact models work together so that the whole impact/adaptation story is greater than the ‘sum of the parts’?

8. Horizontal integration – electricians talking to plumbers…. Inspired by Ken Day

9. Horizontal integration – San Jose Watershed RAC Project Photo from Community Workshop, Williams Lake, March 23, 2012; Ngaio Hotte. Modelling framework from Harry Nelson. Forest harvest scenario from Reg Davis, Forsite

10. Climate change adaptation – a challenge to be proactive(so we won’t get surprised again….) • Science can offer (uncertain but evidence-based) insights into future changes, but how does this information become part of ‘standard practice’? • Forest management – what trees to plant? Harvesting what/when? Fire? Pest? Invasive species? • Water management – urban, agriculture, habitat/in-stream? • WHOSE JOB IS IT?

11. Planned adaptation: what does success look like? • Climate change incorporated in: • A new water management plan? • A new forest management plan? • A new or updated OCP for Williams Lake? • Is this a change in language within existing plans or protocols? • A change in numbers (what numbers?)? • A change in equations, lines/curves, within models? • New thresholds for action (e.g. drought management plan)? • New levels of insurance (risk) coverage? Change in burden sharing between governments, private landowners? • New codes and standards for infrastructure?

12. Planned adaptation: some questions for discussion? • Incorporating climate change within existing planning and management processes • What are the entry points? • What agencies/organizations/person(s)? • Roles and responsibilities of governments, practitioners/professionals (and their governing bodies)? • What information would be needed to support planned adaptation? • Water demand? • Future economic development plans/proposals? • Local monitoring of streamflow, groundwater, other environmental indicators? • Research? Science? Decision-support?

13. Next steps? • Local actors? • Research community? • Others? • Milestones?