Heavy precipitation
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Heavy precipitation. Poland under water, July 1997. Convective closure shemes. Domain size & resolution. Soil moisture. Boundary conditions. Group 13. M. Liszewska (Poland). T. Spektorman (Uzbekistan). E. Vanvyve (Belgium). The flood of July 1997 in Poland. Wroclaw. 1 st flood peak.

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Heavy precipitation

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Heavy precipitation

Heavy precipitation

Poland under water, July 1997

Convective closure shemes

Domain size & resolution

Soil moisture

Boundary conditions

Group 13

M. Liszewska (Poland)

T. Spektorman (Uzbekistan)

E. Vanvyve (Belgium)


Heavy precipitation

The flood of July 1997 in Poland

Wroclaw

1st flood peak

2nd flood peak


What did we do

Small domain40/60 km

Arakawa & Schubert

NCEP

Large domain60 km

Fritsch & Chappell

ECMWF

What did we do ?

Boundary conditions

RegCM


Heavy precipitation

Plan

  • Results

    • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions

    • Sensitivity to soil moisture

    • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

  • Conclusion


Cc shemes bcs p surface monthly mean

CC shemes & BCs - Psurface (monthly mean)

Arakawa-Schubert

Fritsch-Chappell

NCEP 

ECMWF 


Cc shemes bcs t 2m monthly mean

CC shemes & BCs – T2m (monthly mean)

Arakawa-Schubert

Fritsch-Chappell

CRU

NCEP 

ECMWF 


Cc shemes bcs precipitation monthly rate

CC shemes & BCs - precipitation (monthly rate)

Arakawa-Schubert

Fritsch-Chappell

CRU

NCEP 

ECMWF 


Cc shemes bcs precipitation 6h

CC shemes & BCs - Precipitation (6h)

Average on the flood area

Arakawa-Schubert

Fritsch-Chappell

NCEP 

ECMWF 


Heavy precipitation

Plan

  • Results

    • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions

    • Sensitivity to soil moisture

    • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

  • Conclusion


Sensitivity to soil moisture

Sensitivity to soil moisture

How the soil moisture can influence the precipitation ?

Initial soil moisture in andaround the flood areaset to 100%.

  • Precipitation for the 2 flood peaks


Sensitivity to the soil moisture

Sensitivity to the soil moisture

NCEPFritsch & Chappell

1st flood peak(4-7th July)

2nd flood peak(18-20th July)

“normal”soilmoisture 

1st flood peak

“modified”soilmoisture 

2nd flood peak


Heavy precipitation

Plan

  • Results

    • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions

    • Sensitivity to soil moisture

    • Sensitivity to the domain size and the resolution

  • Conclusion


Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

Average on the 3 days of the 2nd flood peak

NCEPArakawa & Schubert

“small” domain – 60 km

“small” domain – 40 km

“large” domain – 60 km

totalprecipitation 

convectiveprecipitation


Heavy precipitation

Plan

  • Simulations setup

  • Results

    • Sensitivity to

      • convective closure schemes

      • boundary conditions

        Does the soil moisture matter for the peak flood ?

    • Sensitivity to the domain size and the resolution

  • Conclusion


Preliminary conclusion

Preliminary conclusion

  • Sensitivity to forcing fields

    • no difference for monthly mean T2m and Psurface

    • NCEP seems dryer than ECMWF

  • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes

    • no difference for monthly mean T2m and Psurface

    • regional precipitation pattern captured

    • flood peaks more or less corresponding to the real situation

  • Sensitivity to soil moisture

    • difficult to say, more investigation needed

  • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

    • more detailed convective precipitation pattern for higher resolution


Last words

Last words …

Our first conclusion was :

“Still a lot of very hard work and white nights …”

Thanks for your patience !

That was true !!


Sensitivity to cc schemes and bcs

Sensitivity to CC schemes and BCs

  • Domain

    • “small” domain (40*50*18)

    • 60 km resolution

  • Convective closure schemes

    • Arakawa & Schubert

    • Fritsch & Chappell

  • Boundary conditions

    • NCEP

    • ECMWF

  • Monthly/daily pressure, temperature and precipitation


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