Heavy precipitation
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Heavy precipitation. Poland under water, July 1997. Convective closure shemes. Domain size & resolution. Soil moisture. Boundary conditions. Group 13. M. Liszewska (Poland). T. Spektorman (Uzbekistan). E. Vanvyve (Belgium). The flood of July 1997 in Poland. Wroclaw. 1 st flood peak.

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Heavy precipitation

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Heavy precipitation

Poland under water, July 1997

Convective closure shemes

Domain size & resolution

Soil moisture

Boundary conditions

Group 13

M. Liszewska (Poland)

T. Spektorman (Uzbekistan)

E. Vanvyve (Belgium)


The flood of July 1997 in Poland

Wroclaw

1st flood peak

2nd flood peak


Small domain40/60 km

Arakawa & Schubert

NCEP

Large domain60 km

Fritsch & Chappell

ECMWF

What did we do ?

Boundary conditions

RegCM


Plan

  • Results

    • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions

    • Sensitivity to soil moisture

    • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

  • Conclusion


CC shemes & BCs - Psurface (monthly mean)

Arakawa-Schubert

Fritsch-Chappell

NCEP 

ECMWF 


CC shemes & BCs – T2m (monthly mean)

Arakawa-Schubert

Fritsch-Chappell

CRU

NCEP 

ECMWF 


CC shemes & BCs - precipitation (monthly rate)

Arakawa-Schubert

Fritsch-Chappell

CRU

NCEP 

ECMWF 


CC shemes & BCs - Precipitation (6h)

Average on the flood area

Arakawa-Schubert

Fritsch-Chappell

NCEP 

ECMWF 


Plan

  • Results

    • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions

    • Sensitivity to soil moisture

    • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

  • Conclusion


Sensitivity to soil moisture

How the soil moisture can influence the precipitation ?

Initial soil moisture in andaround the flood areaset to 100%.

  • Precipitation for the 2 flood peaks


Sensitivity to the soil moisture

NCEPFritsch & Chappell

1st flood peak(4-7th July)

2nd flood peak(18-20th July)

“normal”soilmoisture 

1st flood peak

“modified”soilmoisture 

2nd flood peak


Plan

  • Results

    • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions

    • Sensitivity to soil moisture

    • Sensitivity to the domain size and the resolution

  • Conclusion


Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

Average on the 3 days of the 2nd flood peak

NCEPArakawa & Schubert

“small” domain – 60 km

“small” domain – 40 km

“large” domain – 60 km

totalprecipitation 

convectiveprecipitation


Plan

  • Simulations setup

  • Results

    • Sensitivity to

      • convective closure schemes

      • boundary conditions

        Does the soil moisture matter for the peak flood ?

    • Sensitivity to the domain size and the resolution

  • Conclusion


Preliminary conclusion

  • Sensitivity to forcing fields

    • no difference for monthly mean T2m and Psurface

    • NCEP seems dryer than ECMWF

  • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes

    • no difference for monthly mean T2m and Psurface

    • regional precipitation pattern captured

    • flood peaks more or less corresponding to the real situation

  • Sensitivity to soil moisture

    • difficult to say, more investigation needed

  • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution

    • more detailed convective precipitation pattern for higher resolution


Last words …

Our first conclusion was :

“Still a lot of very hard work and white nights …”

Thanks for your patience !

That was true !!


Sensitivity to CC schemes and BCs

  • Domain

    • “small” domain (40*50*18)

    • 60 km resolution

  • Convective closure schemes

    • Arakawa & Schubert

    • Fritsch & Chappell

  • Boundary conditions

    • NCEP

    • ECMWF

  • Monthly/daily pressure, temperature and precipitation


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