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WG3 Heavy precipitation, flash-floods and floods

WG3 Heavy precipitation, flash-floods and floods. Guy Delrieu, Alberto Montanari Romualdo Romero, Evelyne Richard. Scientific questions. WG3-SQ1 : What are the characteristics of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean ?

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WG3 Heavy precipitation, flash-floods and floods

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  1. WG3Heavy precipitation, flash-floods and floods Guy Delrieu, Alberto Montanari Romualdo Romero, Evelyne Richard

  2. Scientific questions • WG3-SQ1: What are the characteristics of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean ? • WG3-SQ2: How can we improve heavy rainfall process knowledge and their prediction ? • WG3-SQ3: How can we improve hydrological prediction? • WG3-SQ4: How extreme hydrometeorological events will evolve under future climate conditions during the XXIst century?

  3. WG3 Contributions • ~ 40 contributions (with already some grouping) • Substantial international involvment (France, Italy, Germany, Greece, Croatia Spain, Morocco, Cyprus, USA) • Atmospheric / Hydrological Proposals

  4. LOP EOP 2016 Eastern Med ? Observation strategy : EOP/SOP Enhanced existing observatories and observing systems in the key regions of high-impact weather: budgets and process studies (+ dedicated short field campaigns) Enhanced current operational observing system over the whole Mediterranean basin: budgets (data access  ‘data policy’) 2017 Western Med + Greece SOP Phasing with THORPEX, HALO, MEDEX Special observing periods of high-impact weather events in selected regions of the EOP target areas (aircrafts, ships,…): process studies

  5. Observational strategy 1. Make an optimal use of existing networks 2. Select a number of target areas 3. Identify appropriate upstream supersites 4. Complement the observations over the sea 5. Deploy a number of instrumented aircraft (SOP) 6. Define numerical products for the mission planning  Document the entire life cycle of HPE events

  6. 1 - Different existing networks EOP  SOP • Wind profilers  Wind, Moisture • Lidars  Aerosols, Moisture • GPS  Moisture • Radars  Precipitation, Wind, Microphysics • Lightning detection  Microphysics

  7. 2 - Possible HPE target areas FV DA CV AP CA VA CR Four contrasted areas (rural/urban, medium/high orography, including one semi-arid area)

  8. 3 - Upwind sites FV DA CV AP CA VA CR

  9. 3 - Upwind sites instrumentation • RS / UHF / VHF / Sodar / RASS • Lidar aerosol • GPS • Water vapor lidar or MW radiometer • Operational radar or X band radar Optimal distribution of available instruments ?

  10. 4 – Extend the measurements over the sea • Space (Cloudsat, Calipso, …) • Balloons (boundary layer bal., aeroclipper, driftsondes) • Shipborne instruments : RS, GPS, UHF, … • Local measurements (precip ?) • Aircraft (in situ, WV and wind lidar, cloud and precip radar ?)

  11. 5 - SOP Aircraft operation • SAFIRE ATR + WV Lidar LEANDRE II + microphysics • SAFIRE FALCON + RALI + microphysics + DS ? • HALO (NEPTUN, THORPEX) + Wind +WV lidar • IMK Dornier 28 (Turbulent fluxes) • DLR FALCON ?? • NRL/P3 + ELDORA + Microphysics ??  1 M€ PIs need to be identified and/or confirmed

  12. BAE146 T-NAWDEX HALO T-NAWDEX 5 - Aircraft operations (1) SOP Far upstream precursors

  13. 5 - Aircraft operations (2) SOP ATR + LEANDRE HALO-NEPTUN DO 28 Close upstream documentation of the pre-convective environment

  14. 5 - Aircraft operations (3) SOP F-FALCON + RALI NRL P3 + ELDORA Sampling of the precipitating system with microphysics measurements for radar retrieval validation

  15. 6 - Modelling strategy :(e.g. AROME –Med domain) Many other proposals but for mission planning  ECMWF, ARPEGE, ALADIN …

  16. An example HPE target area: Cévennes-Vivarais (CV) Upwind supersite GPS transects 4 to 5 X band radars Similar setting over Spain, Italy, Greece?

  17. MAP – IOP2B – 6h precip

  18. MAP – IOP2B – PV + wind @ 850hPa

  19. Available instrumentation IMK ( Date ?) 2 RS stations Doppler wind lidar (PBL/low trop) Cloud radar Surface measurements Univ. Hohenheim (?) WV lidar X band radar Univ Potenza (?) WV lidar LA (?) UHF wind profiler Radiometer (T, qv,ql) DLR (?) POLDIRAD Cloud radar (HALO) LATMOS X Band Radar (?) Hydrix (Marseille?)

  20. Modelling strategy : • Many HR plateforms • AROME • WRF • MOLOCH • COSMO • MESO-NH • Strong need for effective guidance Many proposals and probably more to come / Focus on Real time for IIP

  21. Lidar network : Moisture and aerosol monitoring (G.Liberti) 11 WV lidars 3 movable Roma / Potenza Hohenheim Optimal location for SOPs? SOP : Corsica ? Majorca ? Montpellier ?

  22. GPS network : Moisture monitoring (O. Bock) SOP : Additional stations in specific target areas and on ships

  23. QPF and HPE radar network (?? + O. Bousquet) African cost ?? Corsica – Western cost ?? Poldirad - Ebro valley ?? 3D Wind – 4 years – 15’ + Micoph. Retrieval (SOP)

  24. Monitoring of lightning activity • Defer et al. • PROFEO, LINET, METEORAGE, ATD • Multiscale strategy (storm, region, basin) • Lagouvardos et al. • ZEUS, LINET Link between the 2 proposals? Additional needs for SOP ???

  25. Wind profiler network (J.L. Caccia) Nice (uncertain), Minorca (?), Corsica (LA UHF, ?) Montpellier Network dense enough for a high quality 3D wind retrieval ?

  26. Select HPE target areas EOP  SOP (Ducrocq))

  27. Select HPE target areas EOP  SOP (Frei and Schär)

  28. Deep convection in Fall (SON) – AMSU B Funatsu et al, MWR cond. accepted

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