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Development and Climate Change

Development and Climate Change. World Development Report 2010. Marianne Fay October 2009. Climate change is a serious and immediate threat but a climate-smart world is possible if we…. New finance, instruments and pressures are helping build momentum.

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Development and Climate Change

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  1. Development andClimate Change World Development Report 2010 Marianne Fay October 2009

  2. Climate change is a serious and immediate threat but a climate-smart world is possible if we… New finance, instruments and pressures are helping build momentum New finance, new instruments and new pressures are helping build momentum

  3. Scientific consensus: serious and immediate 2001 assessment 2007 assessment Increase in global temperature since pre-industrial era (°C) 5 4 3 2°C over preindustrial 2 Today = + 0.8°C 1 0 Risks to unique and threatened systems Risk of extreme weather events Risks of large scale discontinuities Distribution of impacts Aggregate impacts Source: Smith and others, 2009

  4. No country is immune – ECA significantly threatened By 2030, ECA will be much warmer… • +1.6 to+2.6 by mid century • Fewer frost days (- 14 to 30 days) • More heatwaves: Poland and Hungary to experience same number hot days as Sicily today • Implications • Melting glaciers; less snow • Melting permafrost, arctic ice • Sealevel rise (except Caspian)

  5. No country is immune – ECA significantly threatened And will suffer more droughts and floods… • Precipitation will increase everywhere but in Southern ECA and Central Asia • But water availability will decrease everywhere but Russia • Increased precipitation intensity almost everywhere

  6. A climate-smart world is possible… Annual public subsidies Private funding for energy R&D

  7. But to meet the challenge, we must • ACT NOW • ACT TOGETHER • ACT DIFFERENTLY

  8. Act now:Today’s actions Determine tomorrow’s options Inertia in the climate system feasibility Inertia in the built environment costs Inertia in institutions and individuals’ behavior political momentum

  9. Act now:Or the 2˚C trajectory is out of reach Projected annual total global emissions (billion tons of CO2 equivalent)

  10. Act now:Much is at risk already and we have to learn to adapt Urban climate by 2100 (if we don’t act)

  11. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 - 20 - 40 - 60 - 80 - 100 - 120 - 140 - 160 Act together:Richer countries have to take the lead but all have a role to play Marginal mitigation cost ($/tCO2e) Advanced technologies: carbon capture and storage Gt of foregone mitigation Efficiency in buildings Land-use and land-use change, mostly in developing countries Additional cost of achieving 10 Gt of mitigation 0 10 20 30 40 Mitigation potential (GtCO2e/year) Small hydro and nuclear in developing countries Renewable energy: Wind and solar Efficiency in motors, cars, and electricity co-eneration Marginal cost, all countries Marginal cost, all countries Negative costs: Long-term savings outweigh initial costs Mitigation measure in a developing country Marginal cost, only high-income countries Mitigation measure in a high-income country McKinsey 2009

  12. Act differently:Radically transform energy systems Global primary energy mix (exajoules) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Energy efficiency

  13. Act differently:To manage a changing world • To take advantage of the opportunities that could arise • Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine to “feed the world”? • Warmer temperatures, carbon fertilization… but land and water? • Agriculture and forestry yield gap much higher than potential increase from climate change • Northern expansion…requires infrastructure • Make robust rather than optimal decisions

  14. Making it happen:New resources To reconcile equity and efficiency Requires massive scaling-up From $9 bn to $170-$275 Bn in 2030 A financing challenge: $250-$550 bn in associated mitigation finance It can be done: Requires all options available Financing = 3% global investments

  15. Making it happen:New instruments To support communities and decisionmakers Low-tech and high-tech

  16. Increasing awareness and concern Individuals and organizations are responding Politics are changing More is needed to turn awareness into action “ Soft” policy tools - communication and education; social norms Create institutional mechanisms to deal with new challenges • Making it happen:New pressures

  17. http://blogs.worldbank.org/ climatechange/ http://worldbank.org/wdr2010 http://www.worldbank.org/eca/ climatechange

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