Vulnerability of Poor Rural Households to Climate Variability and Change in the West African Sahel

1. Vulnerability of Poor Rural Households to Climate Variability and Change in the West African Sahel Anthony Nyong Geography Department, University of Jos, Nigeria START Visiting Fellow Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford, UK Abou Berthé Institute of Rural Economy, Mali Second International Conference on Climate Assessment (SICCIA), June 28 – July 2, 2004, Grainau, Germany.

2. Acknowledgements • This work is part of an AIACC supported project on Households and droughts in the West African Sahel: Effective Adaptation Measures. Research is executed by the University of Jos, Nigeria and The Institute of Rural Economy, Mali. • Funding for AIACC (Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions) was provided by GEF, USAID, CIDA and USEPA. • AIACC is jointly administered by START (Global SysTems for Analysis, Research and Training) and TWAS (Third World Academy of Science)

3. The Sahel Environment 1 • A transition between the southern margin of the Sahara desert and the savanna regions to the south. • A bio-climatic zone of mainly annual grasses with a few shrubs and trees, that receives a mean annual rainfall of between 150 and 600mm • A steep gradient of decreasing rainfall from south to north, with an increase in inter-annual and spatial variability. • A zone of cultural transition where the Islamic culture from the north mingles with the traditional cultures of the south. • North-south stratification of social systems, northerly cultures tend towards pastoralism, southerly cultures largely practice sedentary agriculture.

4. The Sahel Environment 2 A comparison of the 10-day rainfall distribution and the cumulative rainfall for 2002 with the long term average (1960-90) for various zones within the Sahel

5. Research Questions/Objectives • Who is vulnerable?What are the specific reasons for their vulnerability? Where are the vulnerable? How have they come to be vulnerable? What shapes the exposure to and ability of certain groups to rebound from vulnerability? • We also wish to know the temporal and spatial aspects of vulnerability: Will vulnerability be long or short term or is vulnerability worse at certain times of the year? • From the spatial perspective we wish to know the extent of vulnerable areas susceptible to droughts. The most vulnerable people may not be in the most vulnerable regions.

6. IPCC AIACC Selection of Study Sites Key Climatic Variables Non Climatic Variables Adaptation Strategies Scenarios Capacity Building Stakeholders Vulnerability Model Risk Assessment Sensitivity Analysis Coping Threshold

7. Project Coverage

8. Methodology 1 • The Focus • Current Vulnerability • The Scale • Household • The Framework • Sustainable Livelihood Systems Framework • Stakeholder involvement and analysis • Variations in definition and perception of vulnerability

9. Current Vulnerability • Quantitative assessment of the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of various groups to past and present drought disasters will form a basis for, and contribute to understanding future Vulnerability & Adaptation to drought hazards in the Sahel.

10. Household Analysis • Project will mainly address the vulnerability of resource-poor households and groups, with a strong gender perspective. • Continuing absence of class and gender focus in vulnerability to drought reinforces biases and presents a gap in giving a clearer picture of vulnerability, as well as in designing effective mitigation measures for them. • Assets and entitlements are better analyzed at household level

11. Why Sustainable Livelihood? • Adopting a sustainable livelihoods perspective on drought vulnerability results in a fundamental shift in focus away from the resource itself to people, the impact of drought on their livelihood strategies, and resource conditions. • Will ensure that projects tackling drought mitigation and adaptation become problem-led rather than ‘discipline-led’. • Will lead to a greater understanding of the multiple dimensions of drought vulnerability. Vulnerability is explicitly a social phenomenon related to a human value system.

12. Stakeholder Analysis • Stakeholders are those who would be increasingly affected by the foreseen impacts, as well as those who have a role in influencing adaptation and policy. • Understanding role of stakeholders in the decision-making processes to cope with and adapt during climatic events is fundamental to characterizing current and possible future vulnerability. • Stakeholder analysis will assist the implementation of adaptation policies and the formation of an “adaptation community”, that will provide the momentum to carry the process forward (APF, 2003).

13. Methodology 2 • Participatory Rural Appraisal to: • Identify major livelihood systems Farming Pastoralism Fishing Non-Agric Systems

14. Mali Nigeria 27 communities selected, 860 households interviewed, Communities selected based on livelihood systems, size of villages and willingness of the women to participate in the project. Selection of Study Communities

15. Identification Vulnerability Indicators • Identification of risks exposed to: • Different groups in the Sahel are differentially at risk from different threats to their livelihood. Climate change is one of those threats. Such risks include: Insecurity/violence, ill-health/death of both humans and animals, rising cost of living, insufficient food for the household, crop failure • Vulnerability varies within and between households and across communities. People’s perceptions of risk may be based not only on the objective risks that they face, such as variable rainfall, but also on their subjective assessment of risk. • Development of indicators of vulnerability - mix of both quantitative and subjective indicators

16. Table 1: Indices and Weights for Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment for Northern Nigeria

17. Vulnerability Ranking • Methodology for classification • Indicators weights • <350 Highly Vulnerable • 351 – 700 Vulnerable • >700 Not Vulnerable Distribution of Households According to Levels of Vulnerability

18. Table 3: Selected Household Indicators of Adaptive Capacity by Vulnerability Groups

19. Table 4: Multivariate Results of Household Adaptive Capacity

20. What Next? • More Data Analyses to answer the Research Questions • Development of a GIS for spatial analysis of drought vulnerability Concerns? • Aggregating household level indicators to community/regional indices • Development of a Dynamic Vulnerability Model