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PROACTIVE FAILURE PREDICTION (REVERSE “TRIZ”) InfraGard™ MEETING, 6/10/03 ORLANDO, FL Jack Hipple Innovation-TRIZ Tampa, FL www.innovation-triz.com PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC. PROACTIVE FAILURE PREDICTION (REVERSE “TRIZ”) InfraGard™ MEETING, 6/10/03 ORLANDO, FL Jack Hipple Innovation-TRIZ Tampa, FL www.innovation-triz.com 813-994-9999. OBJECTIVES. Familiarize you with the basic concepts of Inventive Problem Solving/TRIZ

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Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC.

PROACTIVE FAILURE PREDICTION (REVERSE “TRIZ”)

InfraGard™ MEETING, 6/10/03

ORLANDO, FL

Jack Hipple

Innovation-TRIZ

Tampa, FL

www.innovation-triz.com

813-994-9999


Objectives

OBJECTIVES

  • Familiarize you with the basic concepts of Inventive Problem Solving/TRIZ

  • Explain and demonstrate “reverse” TRIZ or Pro-active Failure Prediction

  • Change the way you think about solving problems

  • Introduce you to new ways to think about failure analysis/prediction, and future planning

  • Discuss linkage with other failure prediction tools you may be using


Objectives1

OBJECTIVES

  • Education and sharing

  • Desire for input


Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

BEFORE WE START….LET’S BENCHMARK

  • MACHINE REPLACES MAN

  • CASE STUDY

  • A robot was brought to a plant to operate a machine. After it was rigged up and switched on, the elderly worker who had operated the machine for years was amazed at seeing the nimble “iron man” performing all the necessary steps.

  • A half an hour later, however, the robot came to a standstill, to the bewilderment of the service team of electronic engineers. What happened? As it turned out, some chips had fallen from the workpiece into the moving elements of the machine. This situation where a human worker would simply flip the chips away with a broom and continue working brought the robot to a deadlock. The engineers cleaned the machine with a broom, switched on the robot…only to see the robot stop again. How could this problem be solved? Obviously, one cannot attach a human worker with a broom to the robot……

  • Source: TRIZ: The Right Solution at the Right Time, p3, used with permission


  • Before reverse triz we need to review normal triz

    BEFORE “REVERSE” TRIZ, WE NEED TO REVIEW “NORMAL” TRIZ


    What is triz

    WHAT IS “TRIZ” ?

    A Russian acronym:

    Theoria Resheneyva Isobretatelskehuh Zadach

    (Theory of Solving Problems Inventively)


    What is triz1

    WHAT IS “TRIZ” ?

    • A way of thinking

    • A family of tools, tool kits, and software

      The “way of thinking” can ALWAYS be used, but the tools in the tool kit can be selected depending on the nature of the problem, time available, etc.


    The history of triz

    THE HISTORY OF TRIZ

    • A discovery of a brilliant patent examiner for the Russian navy, Genrich Altshuller, 1950’s--studied hundreds of thousands of patents

    • He recognized that the development of technological systems follows predictable patterns that cut across ALL areas of technology--the speed of technical evolution can be accelerated

    • Also recognized that problem solving principles are also predictable and repeatable--anyone can invent!

    • Established schools to teach after a Stalin 7 yr. prison term--deceased in 1999 at age 71

    • “Reverse” TRIZ was developed around 1970


    What to use triz for

    WHAT TO USE TRIZ FOR

    • Level 2-4 problems

      • 1--straightforward engineering design

      • 2--simple contradictions

      • 3--difficult design and manufacturing contradictions (WHAT IS NORMAL APPROACH?)

      • 4--extremely difficult system design problems (“intestine problems”)

      • 5--invention of new science

    • Level 4 can require looking at hundreds of thousands of potential solutions and take many years of effort within an organization


    What to use triz for1

    WHAT TO USE TRIZ FOR

    • Safety/security analogs?

      • 1--straightforward engineering design

      • 2--simple contradictions

      • 3--difficult design and manufacturing contradictions (WHAT IS NORMAL APPROACH?)

      • 4--extremely difficult system design problems (“intestine problems”)

      • 5--invention of new science


    Where does it fit

    IDENTIFY

    IMPLEMENT

    TOOLS

    Six Sigma, QFD, TOC

    TRIZ/ CPS/Six Hats

    Robust design/JIT

    WHERE DOES IT FIT?


    Vs other creativity tools

    VS. OTHER “CREATIVITY” TOOLS

    • Based on science and not psychology

    • Takes time to learn and practice

    • Time consuming on the problem definition side--pays dividends, but some people prefer to solve the wrong problem several times and appear to be doing something useful


    The output of the process

    THE OUTPUT OF THE PROCESS

    • Generates solution paths and concepts of solution, NOT engineering drawings and detailed plans

    • A better, more clearly defined problem and project

    • New and nearly exhaustive set of concepts


    Thinking outside your paradigm

    THINKING OUTSIDE YOUR PARADIGM

    SPACE

    IMPOSSIBLE

    9/11?

    POSSIBLE

    TIME

    EVENTS AND EXPERIENCES SHAPE OUR BELIEF SYSTEM!!!

    DISCUSSION


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    THE SOLUTION SPACE

    Mechanical

    Effects &

    Technology

    Thermo-Dynamics

    P

    roblem

    Chemical Effects

    & Technology

    Electrical &

    Magnetic Effects

    & Technology

    S

    olution

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    HOW WE SOLVE PROBLEMS USING THE TRIAL & ERROR METHOD

    Variants

    Variants

    Variants

    Concept 3

    Variants

    Concept N-1

    Concept 2

    Psychological

    Inertia Vector

    Variants

    Concept N

    Concept 1

    P

    problem

    S

    solution

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    PSYCHOLOGICAL INERTIA COMES IN MANY FORMS

    • Habits

    • Beliefs

    • History/Tradition

    • Policies/Procedures

    • Rules/Guidelines

    • Education

    • Past experiences

      OTHERS?

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    “A GOOD THING”

    • Psychological inertia is “good”

      • Basis for our brain’s stability

      • Usually good that we follow it

      • Protects the mind from doing unproductive work

      • Utilizes past experiences and knowledge

        • Good that we can remember, memorize and use

        • Storage of ready-made decisions keeps the brain free which allows work to be done in parallel

      • Basis for stable society

        • Any kind of change is potentially bad or dangerous

        • There is always a need to stabilize situations

    ®Ideation International, used by permission

    -


    A normal person s view

    A “NORMAL” PERSON’S VIEW...

    How does a centrifuge work?


    The baker s view

    INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC.

    THE BAKER’S VIEW

    The Waissenberg Effect

    When the motion of certain liquids is altered, the liquid achieves a highly plastic state. This state is caused by stress which is normal to the plane of the altered motion. For example, if a rotating shaft emerges from a pool of liquid, the liquid will rise along the shaft. This effect is observed in solutions, in molten polymers, and in gels of low molecular weight. The effect is used to develop extruders that do not use spiral impellers. A characteristic of this effect is that, as the speed of motion increases, the stability of the flow decreases


    Parallel universes

    PARALLEL UNIVERSES

    • Many other industries or technologies face the same type of problems in a generic sense

    • It’s almost impossible to follow all areas of technology, read all literature, go to all meetings

    • Accidents or alerts sometimes change this, but it is normally not proactive in most organizations

    • In planning the future, it is CRITICAL to be aware of advances in ALL fields of technology

    • Advances in unknown areas can forecast advances in known areas


    Why is this important

    INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC.

    WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

    Let’s take a look at some examples…..


    An inventive principle concept of an operator

    AN INVENTIVE PRINCIPLE: CONCEPT OF AN OPERATOR

    Operator Example

    Specific problemSpecialized solution

    3x2+5x+2 = 0 x = ????

    ALGEBRA DOES NOT EXIST--HOW DO WE SOLVE?


    An operator

    AN OPERATOR

    Operator Example

    Specific problemSpecialized solution

    3x2+5x+2 = 0 x= -1, -2/3

    Trial and Error!!


    An operator the basic principle of triz

    AN OPERATOR--THE BASIC PRINCIPLE OF TRIZ

    Operator Example

    Abstract problem Abstract solution

    ax2+bx+c = 0 x=(-b+/-b2-4ac)/2a

    Specific problemSpecialized solution

    3x2+5x+2 = 0 x= -1, -2/3

    TRIZ DOES FOR PROBLEM SOLVING AND FORECASTING WHAT ALGEBRA DOES FOR EQUATION PROBLEM SOLVING!


    I am designing a food processing plant requiring destemmed peppers how would i do this

    INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC.

    I am designing a food processing plant requiring “destemmed” peppers----how would I do this?


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    PATTERNS OF INVENTION

    Processing Sweet Peppers

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    What is the inventive principle how did we solve the problem

    WHAT IS THE “INVENTIVE PRINCIPLE”?HOW DID WE SOLVE THE PROBLEM?

    “Slowly raise pressure and suddenly reduce it” or “slowly store energy and suddenly release it”

    • A path to a solution

    • An approach to solving a problem

    • A direction towards an answer


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    PATTERNS OF INVENTION

    • Removing stems from bell peppers

    • Removing shells form sunflower seeds

    • Cleaning filters

    • Unpacking parts wrapped in protective paper

    • Splitting diamonds along micro-cracks

    • Producing sugar powder from sugar crystals

    • Explosive depulping


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    PATTERNS OF INVENTION

    • Removing stems from bell peppers (1945)

    • Removing shells form sunflower seeds

    • Cleaning filters

    • Unpacking parts wrapped in protective paper

    • Splitting diamonds along micro-cracks (1972)

    • (+27 years after pepper patent)

    • Producing sugar powder from sugar crystals

    • Explosive depulping


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    My

    Problem

    n

    Many Typical

    Recommendations

    for

    Solutions

    (Knowledge base)

    Many

    Typical

    Problems

    A large number of typical problems are available for consideration

    TRIZ help to marrow the search to a manageable range of typical problems

    For each typical problem, there are one or more potential solutions

    1

    2

    3

    To

    Corresponding

    Solutions

    Prism

    of TRIZ -

    Analytical

    tools

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    n

    My

    Solution

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Boeing rethinks airplane building

    BOEING RETHINKS AIRPLANE BUILDING


    The story of the caviar eggs and ball bearings

    THE STORY OF THE CAVIAR EGGS AND BALL BEARINGS


    The bottom line

    THE BOTTOM LINE...

    MOST PROBLEMS THAT WE SOLVE AND MOST PATHS OF EVOLUTION OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS ARE ALREADY KNOWN----THIS IS A MAJORPSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER

    WHAT WE HAVE TO DO IS TO RECOGNIZE OTHERS’ PROBLEMS AND TECHNOLIGIES IN GENERIC FORM (IN DISGUISE?)

    SOME PEOPLE MAKE A CAREER OUT OF MAKING THEIR PROBLEM SEEM TRULY UNIQE


    Defalcation

    “DEFALCATION”

    From a Bank of Montreal problem questionnaire:

    “The purpose is to reduce/eliminate defalcation when criminals use false ID to impersonate real customers”

    Does anyone know what this word means?


    Genericizing operators

    GENERICIZING OPERATORS

    • Defalcation

      • Fraud

        • Substitution of one thing for another

    • What differences would you see in a literature search for these various topics?


    Examples of jargon in your area

    EXAMPLES OF JARGON IN YOUR AREA...

    JARGON PHRASE MORE GENERIC DESCRIPTION

    1.

    2.

    3.

    4.

    FLIP CHART


    Other industries with similar problems failure problems

    OTHER INDUSTRIESWITH SIMILAR PROBLEMS--FAILURE PROBLEMS?

    • Food processing?

    • Water quality?

    • Chemical releases?

    • ?

    • ?

    • ?


    Ideality and resources

    INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC.

    IDEALITY AND RESOURCES

    THE BASIC TRIZ PRINCIPLES THAT UNDERLIE SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND PATTERNS OF PROBLEM SOLVING


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    WHAT IS IDEALITY

    (IDEAL FINAL RESULT)?

    Ideality

    All Useful Functions

    All HarmfulFunctions

    =

    The ideal system performs a required function without actually existing. The function is often performed using existing resources. ALL systems evolve in this direction over time by resolving contradictions.

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    CHAMBER DESTRUCTION PROBLEM

    Container

    Acid

    Specimen

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    CHAMBER DESTRUCTION PROBLEM

    Acid

    Specimen

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    CHAMBER DESTRUCTION PROBLEM

    Acid

    Specimen/

    Container

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Ideality

    INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC.

    IDEALITY

    WHAT’S THE IDEAL FINAL RESULT/DESCRIPTION OF IDEALITY IN THE “NEW MACHINE” PROBLEM?


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    LET’S REVISIT THE NEW MACHINE

    • MACHINE REPLACES MAN

  • CASE STUDY

  • A robot was brought to a plant to operate a machine. After it was rigged up and switched on, the elderly worker who had operated the machine for years was amazed at seeing the nimble “iron man” performing all the necessary steps.

  • A half an hour later, however, the robot came to a standstill, to the bewilderment of the service team of electronic engineers. What happened? As it turned out, some chips had fallen from the workpiece into the moving elements of the machine. This situation where a human worker would simply flip the chips away with a broom and continue working brought the robot to a deadlock. The engineers cleaned the machine with a broom, switched on the robot…only to see the robot stop again. How could this problem be solved? Obviously, one cannot attach a human worker with a broom to the robot……

  • Source: TRIZ: The Right Solution at the Right Time, p3, used by permission


  • How would you describe reverse ideality in this case

    HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE “REVERSE” IDEALITY IN THIS CASE?


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    HOW DO WE GET TO IDEALITY?

    • TRIZ provides two general approaches for achieving close-to-ideal solutions (that is, solutions which do not increase system complexity):

      • Use of resources

      • Use of physical, chemical, geometrical and other effects (remember the Waissenberg effect?)

    -


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    WHAT’S A RESOURCE FROM A TRIZ PERSPECTIVE?

    • A resource:

      • is any substance (including waste) available in the system or its environment

      • has the functional and technological ability to jointly perform additional functions

      • is an energy reserve, free time, unoccupied space, information, etc.


    Resources wire example

    RESOURCES -- WIRE EXAMPLE

    Copper Wire

    Problem Zone

    Voltage & Current

    Air

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Immediately available resources

    IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE RESOURCES

    Copper

    Contaminates

    Type

    Amount

    Diameter

    Length

    Shape of wire

    Amount

    Form of excitation signal (A/C)

    Frequency

    Amount

    Form of excitation signal (A/C)

    Frequency

    Hydrogen

    Oxygen

    Nitrogen

    Carbon

    Temperature, Pressure, Velocity, Speed

    Wire

    Current

    Voltage

    Air

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Derivative resources wire example

    DERIVATIVE RESOURCES -- WIRE EXAMPLE

    Copper

    Contaminates

    Type

    Amount

    Diameter

    Length

    Shape of wire

    Amount

    Form of excitation signal (A/C)

    Frequency

    Amount

    Form of excitation signal (A/C)

    Frequency

    Hydrogen

    Oxygen

    Nitrogen

    Carbon

    Temperature

    Pressure, Velocity, Speed

    Resistance

    Magnetic Field

    Oxidation

    Moisture

    CO/CO2

    Cooling/Heat

    Dissipation

    Wire

    Current

    Voltage

    Air

    ®Ideation International, used by permission

    l


    Resource checklist

    RESOURCE CHECKLIST

    • Substances

    • Fields

    • Space

    • Time

    • Information

    • Functional


    System resources

    SYSTEM RESOURCES

    • When a system’s resources are depleted, it will probably be replaced

    • Tracking system resources is a good way to predict when a system may be replaced, challenged, or significantly modified

    • Sometimes it’s a matter of just seeing the resource, other times it’s a matter of figuring out how to use it


    Solving a contact lense problem

    SOLVING A CONTACT LENSE PROBLEM

    • Space resources

      • from the perspective of a contact lense manufacturer

      • from the standpoint of a semi-conductor manufacturer


    Resources

    INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC.

    RESOURCES

    WHAT ARE SOME PREVIOUSLY UNRECOGNIZED RESOURCES IN THE “NEW MACHINE” PROBLEM?


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    LET’S REVISIT THE NEW MACHINE AGAIN….

    • MACHINE REPLACES MAN

  • CASE STUDY

  • A robot was brought to a plant to operate a machine. After it was rigged up and switched on, the elderly worker who had operated the machine for years was amazed at seeing the nimble “iron man” performing all the necessary steps.

  • A half an hour later, however, the robot came to a standstill, to the bewilderment of the service team of electronic engineers. What happened? As it turned out, some chips had fallen from the workpiece into the moving elements of the machine. This situation where a human worker would simply flip the chips away with a broom and continue working brought the robot to a deadlock. The engineers cleaned the machine with a broom, switched on the robot…only to see the robot stop again. How could this problem be solved? Obviously, one cannot attach a human worker with a broom to the robot……

  • Source: TRIZ: The Right Solution at the Right Time, p3


  • Resource checklist1

    RESOURCE CHECKLIST

    • Substances

    • Fields

    • Space

    • Time

    • Information

    • Functional

    These are frequently overlooked


    What unrecognized resource was used in the 9 11 incident

    WHAT UNRECOGNIZED RESOURCE WAS USED IN THE 9/11 INCIDENT?


    The simple triz algorithm

    THE SIMPLE TRIZ ALGORITHM….

    1. State the ideal final result

    2. List the resources that can be used

    3. State the contradictions standing in the way

    4. Use separation principles, the contradiction table, and other TRIZ inventive principles to resolve


    Proactive failure prediction

    PROACTIVE FAILURE PREDICTION

    “TRIZ” IN REVERSE


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    INNOVATION-TRIZ, INC. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL03/29/1999

    Ford to Recall 945,000 Cars, Trucks to Fix Cruise Control DEARBORN, Mich. - Ford Motor Co. is warning owners of 945,000 1998 and 1999 model cars and trucks not to use the cruise-control feature because of a potential defect that could cause the accelerator to stick open.

    The auto maker said it knows of no accidents related to the problem, which company engineers discovered during tests, a Ford spokeswoman said. The vehicles will be recalled and repaired at no cost to customers starting in May when Ford gets replacement parts, the spokeswoman said. In the meantime, customers may get the cruise-control mechanism disabled, the company said.

    The models affected are about 567,000 1998 and 1999 Explorer and Mountaineer sport-utility vehicles; about 166,000 1998 and 1999 Ranger pick-ups; 99,000 1998 and 1999 Mustangs; 88,000 1999 Super Duty F-Series trucks and about 25,000 1999 Super Duty F-Series stripped chassis.

    To alert owners to the problem, Ford is sending letters and directing customers to a Web site, www.recall.ford.com, where they can enter the vehicle identification number to learn if their caror truck is affected.


    Example

    EXAMPLE

    Checklist for this workshop


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    Potential

    Failures

    Potential

    Cause

    REVERSE TRIZ

    • What failures may occur?

    System

    • Why failures did occur?

    Failures


    Reverse triz

    REVERSE TRIZ

    • Formulate original problem

    • Invert the original problem

    • Amplify the inverted problem

    • Search for information and resources

    • Hypothesis, tests, and correction


    What is your checklist for avoiding this result

    The Russian navy, in the early years of the cold war, developed sophisticated combustion technology which allowed a ship to sail under power without a significantly visible smoke trail, making observation by airplanes or satellites very difficult. On its first trial, the ship sailed out and no visible smoke trail could be seen. As a backup precaution, a picture was taken from an airplane, the picture developed, and a smoke trail was seen in the photo. After rechecking all logistics and procedures, the trial was repeated and exactly the same smoke trail in the photo was observed.

    What is your checklist for avoiding this result?


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    Real view

    Photo

    SMOKE-FREE TEST SHIP

    ®Ideation International, used by permission


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    Bulk storage

    Received by rail car and truck, unloaded by N2 pressure or pump

    Distribution to process

    Scrubber for containment

    Unloading with pressure transfer (T/C) and pump (T/T)

    Foam control in storage area

    HAZARDOUS CHEMICAL HANDLING SYSTEM


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    Unload

    Vent

    N2

    Scrubber

    To Process


    The reverse triz approach

    THE REVERSE TRIZ APPROACH

    • The problem: I want to prevent a leak

    • Invert the problem: I WANT to have a leak

    • Exaggerate/amplify the inverted problem: I WANT to have a CATASTROPHIC leak, causing MAJOR damage and public affairs impact

    • What RESOURCES do I need to have/cause a leak?

    • If I was a saboteur, how would I cause this system to leak? Hurt someone? Cause the town to be evacuated? Make our company famous in the national press?


    Vs other processes

    VS. OTHER PROCESSES

    • Compared to the HAZOP or FEMA checklist process, generates far more real possibilities, puts people in an aggressive mind set, and finds possibilities not otherwise found

    • Software supported

    • Larger knowledge base

    • Use inventive skills and thinking from traditional TRIZ problem-solving


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    USES

    • Failure prediction for projects and processes

    • Failure prediction and/or analysis for technology, software developments

    • Failure prediction for technology adoption

    • Failure prediction for commercialization

    • Failure prediction for management/organizational processes

    • Failure analysis for product design/system failures

    • Predicting commercial sabotage


    Example1

    EXAMPLE

    Checklist for this workshop--let’s revisit from an reverse TRIZ standpoint


    If i wanted to sabotage the triz seminar i would

    IF I WANTED TO SABOTAGE THE TRIZ SEMINAR, I WOULD………..


    Case study the exploding drum

    CASE STUDY:THE EXPLODING DRUM

    An overseas shipping system for a highly corrosive chemical has been designed to avoid the expense of using a very expensive reusable, corrosion resistant container. The container is basically a 30 gallon container made of steel (known to be corroded by the product, but rate is steady and known) thick enough to withstand the corrosion that occurs during transit. The liquid is distilled away from the corrosion products at the overseas destination. One trip is made successfully, but during trip #2, several drums rupture and cause a major toxic release on board the transport ship. Analyze this problem using the TRIZ tools in reverse and identify the root cause and suggest possible solutions if it is desired to continue the operation.


    Reverse triz analysis

    REVERSE TRIZ ANALYSIS

    What’s ideality?

    What’s inverted ideality?

    What’s exaggerated inverted ideality?


    Reverse triz analysis1

    REVERSE TRIZ ANALYSIS

    What resources do I need?

    What resources do I have?

    What are possible scenarios?


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    FAILURE PREDICTION - 5 STEP PROCESS

    Problem Description

    Inversion & amplification

    1

    Search for information

    2

    Possibility #1

    Possibility #2

    Possibility #3

    Utilization of resources

    3

    Problem is solved

    Invent a way to produce the resource(s)

    4

    Formulate hypothesis & their verification

    5

    All resources exist

    Focus on missing resource(s)

    Some resources exist

    No resources exist

    Probably the wrong direction


    Pfp problem outline

    PFP PROBLEM OUTLINE

    • How does the system function?

    • What are its known drawbacks?

    • Side effects of useful operations?

    • System interaction(s) with its environment


    Pfp paths for inventing failure

    PFP PATHS FORINVENTING FAILURE

    • Intensify the failure

      • by the system itself

      • distribution of harm

      • specific system reaction

    • Preventing natural compensation

      • hindering self treatment

      • hindering natural environmental mechanisms

    • Prevention of maintenance and correction

      • prevent further disassembly

      • increase system complexity

      • locate “drawback” in an inaccessible location


    Pfp paths for hiding failure

    PFP PATHS FORHIDING FAILURE

    • Places never checked

      • buildup of hazardous materials

      • defects and errors

    • Places difficult to access

    • Making failure invisible during checks

      • between routine tests

      • appearance only during extraordinary circumstances

    • Diverting the sensor’s attention

      • make another phenomenon look like it

      • make the failure look like something else

    • Lack of sensor capability

      • detecting equipment

      • humans


    Group exercises

    GROUP EXERCISES


    Exercise 1

    EXERCISE 1

    Our organization or security consulting company is issuing a new security policy and procedure for a very large, distributed organization. We want this to go flawlessly and have all employees and visitors comply


    Exercise 2

    EXERCISE 2

    We are installing a new system-wide software upgrade in a large corporation and want it to go flawlessly and have it up and running without anyone noticing we did the installation


    Exercise 3

    EXERCISE 3

    We are launching a significant new product line unrelated to our current business and want this new product introduction to go flawlessly and generate all the revenue and profit predicted by the business plan and all the young MBA’s who have never sold anything before


    Exercise 4

    EXERCISE 4

    • The terror alert level had just been raised. Your responsibility is to prevent a terror attack on major tourist attraction in the Orlando area. Use Proactive Failure Prediction to analyze the possibilities and make recommendations.


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    PATTERNS OF EVOLUTION -- A PRIMARY TRIZ POSTULATE

    • Engineering (technological) systems evolve not randomly, but according to objective patterns

    • These patterns can be revealed from the patent literature and analysis of system development and purposefully used for systems development without numerous blind trials


    Appications in long term failure planning

    APPICATIONS IN LONG TERMFAILURE PLANNING

    • Understand better next generation technologies and how better to cause failure within them

    • Look for “back fill” in the existing lines of evolution to spot holes in security positions


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    PATTERNS OF EVOLUTION OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS

    1. Stages of Evolution

    2. Evolution Toward Increased Ideality

    3. Non-Uniform Development of Systems Elements

    4. Evolution Toward Increased Dynamism and Controllability

    5. Increased Complexity then Simplification (Reduction)

    6. Evolution with Matching and Mismatching Components

    7. Evolution Toward Micro-level and Increased Use of Fields

    8. Evolution Toward Decreased Human Involvement


    The transition

    THE TRANSITION

    MeThChEM

    (Mechanical, Thermal, Chemical, Electronic, Magnetic, Electromagnetic)

    Ex: Polymer Processing, Photography


    Examples

    Toothbrushes

    Adhesives

    Pointers

    House construction

    Telephone

    Automobile steering, other systems

    Functional connections

    Writing instruments

    Software development

    Polymer processing

    Tools

    Flow of electricity

    Control systems (on/off, regulates, regulates vs. needs)

    Hydraulic pressure, synchronicity, matched frequency, away from resonant frequencies

    Sunglasses, compensating bi-systems

    A/C systems

    Computer interfaces

    EXAMPLES


    What would the next field be in your system what would the safety security concerns be

    WHAT WOULD THE “NEXT” FIELD BE IN YOUR SYSTEM? WHAT WOULD THE SAFETY/SECURITY CONCERNS BE?


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    8. EVOLUTION TOWARD DECREASED HUMAN INVOLVEMENT

    • Systems develop to perform tedious functions that free people to do more intellectual work

    • Example: Clothes washing

      • Tub and washboard

      • Ringer washing machine

      • Automatic washing machine

      • Automatic washing machine with automatic dispensing of bleach and fabric softener

    • REMEMBER THE NEW MACHINE AND PILL???


    Application at different levels

    APPLICATION AT DIFFERENT LEVELS

    • The principles of “Reverse” TRIZ can be applied at different system levels to assure ourselves that our sub- and super- systems are also protected

    • Deterrence may vary greatly


    Proactive failure prediction reverse triz infragard meeting 6

    LEVEL OF PROBLEM ATTACK

    (NINE BOX LOOK)

    Past

    Future

    Past

    Future

    Past

    Future

    Present

    Supersystem

    System

    Subsystem


    Nine box diagram

    NINE BOX DIAGRAM


    Triz processes are front loaded

    TRIZ PROCESSES ARE FRONT LOADED

    • “The worst sin of all is to do an excellent job at that which should not have been done at all”

      • NY Times, anonymous

  • “We never have time to do it right, but we always have time (and money!) to do it over”

    • Anonymous

  • “Six months in the lab will save an hour in the library”

    • Jack Hipple


  • Front loading

    FRONT LOADING

    • TRIZ problem definition will ADD to what is already defined with QFD or with other tools

    • Experience of the TRIZ community is that few people have truly thought through the problem they are trying to or were told to solve


    Observation

    OBSERVATION

    Many organizations do not have the discipline to thoroughly define a problem prior to going into the solution space. This, in itself, can be fatal to understanding all that might happen in implementation


    Psychological impact

    PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT

    • TRIZ can be viewed as a threat (as opposed to a breakthrough productivity tool) by certain senior technical staff who can’t believe the solution to a problem may lie outside their area of expertise


    Resources1

    RESOURCES

    • Annual Altshuller conference, Seattle, spring, 2004

      • Introductory workshops, TRIZ in non-technical areas, how to implement, Altshuller Institute, www.aitriz.org

    • www.innovation-triz.com web site, newsletter

    • TRIZ Journal, on line at www.triz-journal.com

    • Books

      • “And Suddenly the Inventor Appeared”, Altshuller, $40

      • “Hands on Systematic Innovation”, Mann, CREAX Press

      • “TRIZ: The Right Solution at the Right Time”, Salamatov

      • “Simplified TRIZ”, Rantanen and Domb, CRC Press

      • “The Engineering of Creativity”, Savransky, CRC Press

    • Software providers


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