World energy outlook key trends challenges and policy responses dr fatih birol iea chief economist
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World Energy Outlook: Key trends, challenges and policy responses Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist. Change in world oil demand in the Reference Scenario, 2008-2030. China. Middle East. India. Other Asia. Latin America. Africa. E. Europe/Eurasia. OECD Europe. OECD Pacific.

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Change in world oil demand in the Reference Scenario, 2008-2030

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World energy outlook key trends challenges and policy responses dr fatih birol iea chief economist

World Energy Outlook:Key trends, challenges and policy responses Dr. Fatih BirolIEA Chief Economist


Change in world oil demand in the reference scenario 2008 2030

Change in world oil demand in the Reference Scenario, 2008-2030

China

Middle East

India

Other Asia

Latin America

Africa

E. Europe/Eurasia

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

OECD N.America

-

4

-

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

mb/d

Most of the growth in oil demand comes from developing Asia & the Middle East, with demand falling in OECD regions due to saturation and improved vehicle fuel economy


Worldwide upstream oil gas capital expenditures

Worldwide upstream oil & gas capital expenditures

500

11%

19%

Billion dollars

400

300

200

100

0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010*

* Estimated spending

Global upstream spending fell in 2009, for the first time in a decade, by over $90 billion in 2009, but is set to bounce back by around 10% in 2010 on current plans


Where would the oil come from

Where would the oil come from?

120

Unconventional

mb/d

100

Other OPEC

80

Middle East OPEC

60

Non-OPEC

40

20

0

2000

2008

2015

2030

OPEC takes the lion’s share of the growth in oil supply as conventional non-OPEC production soon peaks, with unconventional oil also playing a growing role


What future for iraqi oil

What future for Iraqi oil ?

  • Iraq: a decisive driver of global oil markets in the coming decade?

  • Iraqi oilfields are mostly technically straightforward and relatively cheap to develop

  • The very rapid capacity expansion claimed by politicians is overly optimistic

  • But even a modest achievement – e.g. a doubling of current production – would have a significant impact on global oil markets

  • Main challenges: security, infrastructure, water and personnel


Oil import bills as share of gdp 2009

Oil import bills as share of GDP, 2009

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0%

European

United

Japan

China

Turkey

Union

States

Turkey 's oil import bills likely to grow and put increasing pressure on the economy


Us natural gas supply in the reference scenario

US natural gas supply in the Reference Scenario

700

bcm

Net imports

600

Conventional

Unconventional

500

400

300

200

100

0

1990

1995

2000

2005

2008

2015

2020

2025

2030

Mainly as a result of shale gas production growth, US gas output grows gradually

through to 2030, outstripping US demand & squeezing US net imports


Natural gas transportation capacity

Natural gas transportation capacity

800

bcm

Unutilised LNG liquefaction

& pipeline capacity

73%

700

600

LNG trade

88%

500

Pipeline trade

400

% Capacity utilisation rate

300

200

100

0

2007

2015

A glut of gas is developing – reaching 200 bcm by 2015 – due to weaker than expected demand & plentiful US unconventional supply, with far-reaching implications for gas pricing


More on natural gas

More on natural gas

  • Pace of global economic recovery is key to gas and electricity demand prospects

  • Pressure on oil-indexed pricing – more innovative gas pricing formulae?

  • Growing interest in LNG –less appetite for pipe line gas

  • More unconventional gas: can the North American success story be replicated elsewhere ?

  • Gas glut: putting pressure on renewables and others ?


How to limit temperature increase to 2 c

How to Limit Temperature Increase to 2°c ?


Limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees requires big quick emission reductions in all regions

Limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees requires big & quick emission reductions in all regions

Abatement of world energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Scenario

Gt

42

World abatement by technology, 2030

Reference Scenario

40

38

Efficiency - 57%

36

34

13.8 Gt

3.8 Gt

32

Renewables & biofuels - 23%

30

Nuclear - 10%

28

CCS - 10%

450 Scenario

26

2007

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

  • An additional $10.5 trillion of investment is needed in total in the 450 Scenario, with measures to boost energy efficiency accounting for most of the abatement through to 2030


Incremental eu electricity production by scenario 2008 2030

Incremental EU electricity productionby scenario, 2008-2030

800

Reference Scenario

TWh

600

450 Scenario

400

200

0

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

Coal

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Biomass

Solar

Other

renewables

  • Renewables, nuclear and plants fitted with CCS account for 80% of electricity generation in EU in 2030 in the 450 Scenario, up from 44% today


Growing interest in nuclear capacity under construction

Growing interest in nuclear - capacity under construction

China

Russia

Non-OECD

24

7

3

8

India

Other

Pacific

Europe

OECD

8

4

1

North America

0

10

20

30

40

50

GW

  • More than three-fourths of the 55 GW of nuclear capacity currently under construction

  • is located in the non-OECD, with over 40% in China alone


European union passenger vehicle sales in the 450 scenario

European Union passenger vehicle sales in the 450 Scenario

100%

Electric vehicles

Plug-in hybrids

80%

Hybrid vehicles

ICE vehicles

60%

40%

20%

0%

2007

2020

2030

The 450 Scenario represents a radical departure from historical trends in fuel and engine technology, which will require significant policy support and appropriate pricing signals


Global co 2 emissions from the power sector and the use of electric cars

Global CO2 emissions from the power sectorand the use of electric cars

Electric vehicle, 450 Scenario, 2030

Electric vehicle, present

Gasoline ICE vehicle, present

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Grammes CO2/km

  • Electric cars only are not enough: a holistic approach is required, reducing CO2 emissions of the power generation system too…


Eu primary natural gas imports by scenario

EU primary natural gas imports by scenario

600

Bcm

Reference Scenario

+65% (204 bcm)

450 Scenario

500

+37% (116 bcm)

400

300

200

100

0

2007

2015

2020

2025

2030

  • EU gas imports continue to grow in the 450 Scenario, but plateaus by around mid-2020s


What does the copenhagen accord entail

What does the Copenhagen Accord entail?

  • A politically significant step towards a legally binding deal:

    • Recognises the need to limit the global temperature increase to 2C

    • Sets a goal of mobilising $100 billion/year of funding for mitigation & adaptation from developed to developing countries by 2020

    • Several countries made pledges by 2020;

  • The Conference took note of the Accord, but not binding and no guarantee of real action

  • Will the accord pave the way for a much stronger deal later to ensure that the 2C goal is achieved?


World abatement of energy related co 2 emissions in the 450 scenario

World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissionsin the 450 Scenario

Gt

42

Reference Scenario

Reference Scenario

40

Current Pledges

38

36

450 Scenario

34

13.8 Gt

3.8 Gt

32

30

28

450 Scenario

26

2007

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

  • Current pledges point in the right direction but further efforts would be needed to reach the 450 Scenario


Summary conclusions

Summary & conclusions

  • The financial crisis has halted the rise in global energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies

  • Oil investment has fallen sharply, posing questions on medium term supply

  • Iraq can play a decisive role shaping the oil market outlook

  • A sizable glut of natural gas is looming – with major implications for gas markets

    • Major growth potential in alternative energy technologies – nuclear, renewables, advance car technologies


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