 POLICIES DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIES

1. CAPRICommon Agricultural Policy Regional Impact POLICIES DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIES  THE AGGREGATION METHOD  DEMANDE SYSTEM ESTIMATION  SENSITIVITY TEST WITH THE MARKET MODULE  PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL Kamel ELOUHICHI Belgium Team

2. POLICY DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIES •  TRQ : Tariff rate quota • TRQNT : the TRQ in tons • TAPREF : ad valorem tariff applied inside the TRQ • TAMF : ad valorem tariff outside the TRQ  TARS : Most favourite nation specific tariff PSE : Producer subsidy equivalent  CSE : Consumer subsidy equivalent  Expsub : Per unit export subsidy  Exps : Subsidized exports  Qute : WTO quantity limit on subsidized exports  Cpri :Consumer price  Ppri : Producer price  Padm : Administrative price

3. ORGANISATION OF COUNTRY DATA POLICIES

4. Import quantity of jth country Domestic sale of jth country Aggregation coefficient Domestic sale of regional aggregation (CEE, ACP,…) Import quantity of regional aggregation (CEE, ACP, MAD…) AGREGATION RULE

5. INTRODUCTION OF DATA POLICIES IN THE MODEL Bologna : 25-26/03/2003

6. POLICY DATA COVERAGE FOR NOECD COUNTRIES

7. Budget share allocated to ith good Price of the jth good Total expenditure Stone’s price index for the group THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM (AIDS MODEL)

8. THEORETICAL PROPERTIES OF LA/AIDS MODEL Homogeneity Adding-up Symmetry

9. Price elasticities Share of total expenditure allocated to ith good The Kronecker delta APPROACH USED TO ESTIMATING DEMAND ELASTICITIES FROM THE LA/AIDS MODEL Bologna : 25-26/03/2003

10. GROUPS OF PRODUCTS (SEPARABILITY ASSUMPTIONS)

11. 1 SOFT WHEAT 2 DURUM WHEAT 3 MAIZE 4 OTHER CEREALS (RYE AND MESLIN, BARLEY,OATS, OTHER CEREALS) PRELIMINARY RESULTS BASED ON THE GROUP OF CEREALS LA/AIDS MODEL

12. ESTIMATED MARSHALLIAN ELASTICITIES AT THE SAMPLE MEANPRELIMINARY RESULTS – FRENCH MARKET - CEREALS - LA/AIDS MODEL • Note 1 : standard errors are in parentheses • Note 2 : *significant at the 5% • Note 3 : **significant at the 10%

13. SENSIBILITY ANALYSIS The first example of sensitivity test Change theArmington elasticities (1,2) of wheat at the EU and we observe the change of : • SP1 : CES scale parameter • SP2 : CES scale parameter second stage • dp : CES distribution parameter

14. First stage Armington quantity aggregate Armington parameter Domestic sales Elasticity of substitution Trade streams from r1 to r Second stage Armington quantity aggregate TWO STAGE ARMINGTON SYSTEM

15. Supply for output i and region r Producer price Shift factor SENSIBILITY ANALYSIS The second example of sensitivity test  Change the shift factor in the supply equation to increase supply for the EU by 10% and compare : Production • Price • Imports and exports • Arm1 : Armington first stage aggregate • Arm2 : Armington second stage aggregate • Arm1p : Average price of foreign origins • Arm2p : Average price of foreign an domestic origins For different sets of Armington elasticities

16. PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL • WP 1 : CAPRI Data Base • Collection of data premium for Bel. and Lux. • Verification of grassland yields for Bel. and Lux. • Verification of cost estimations for Bel. and Lux. WP 4 : Regional Disaggregation of the Market Module Access to additional sources to complete the policy database for NOECD

17. PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL WP 8 : Revision of the Market Module 1. Continuation of the estimation of the elasticities of the demand for human consumption 2. Sensibility tests of Armington elasticities of substitution 3. Estimation of Armington elasticities of substitution 4. Validation of the market module from the calibration years 1997-1998-1999 to the validation years 2000-2000-2002 WP 11 : reference run WP 12 : Simulation run

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