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Climate Change, Desertification & Conflict in the Horn of Africa

This presentation explores the interlocking relationship between climate change, desertification, and conflict in the Horn of Africa. It discusses the negative effects on economic growth, agriculture, and human security, and calls for a multi-actor intervention to address these challenges. The concept of security governance is explored, highlighting the need for cooperation and collaboration between state and non-state actors. The presentation concludes by discussing the impacts on violent conflicts and the urgent need for action.

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Climate Change, Desertification & Conflict in the Horn of Africa

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  1. Climate Change, Desertification & Conflict in the Horn of Africa Presentation made by: Johannes Dragsbæk Schmidt & Michael Omondi Owiso Department of Political Science Aalborg University Workshop on: Global Environmental and Security Governance: Past and Present November 30 – December 1, 2017 Venue: Krogstraede 3 Aalborg University

  2. Greater Horn of africa (Ghoa) 1.Somalia 2.Ethiopia 3.Kenya 4.South Sudan 5.Eritrea 6.Djibouti 7.Sudan Source: SDC, 2016

  3. Human Security (Agriculture, Water & Environment) ”PrecipitatingConditions” The three variables; Climate Change, Desertification and Conflict have an interlocking relationship(s). They either aggravate or trigger each other. The effects they produce are both short and long term necessitating a multi-actor/level intervention(s).

  4. Facts aboutclimatechange, desertification and conflict in HOA Climatechangeleading to: Rainfalluneven and incosistent. Annual average precipitationdeclinedsignificantly. About 72% of the region receivedinadequaterainfallamountswhile 89% of the region has moderate to veryhigh temperatures. Climatechange, desertification, land degradation and drought rendered economicgrowth rate to an average 4.1%, agriculturegrowth rate in relation to GDP at 42.5% National poverty rate at 42.6%. EthiopiaGDP loss from reducedagriculturalproductivity due to land degradationwasestimated at USD 130 million per year in the same period. Castrophicdrought in 2010/11 in the HOA that led to deadlivestock, witheredcrops and barren soils

  5. climatechange, desertification and conflict(continued) Global Hunger Index 2017 places Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Uganda as severe cases in theircategorization Sudan alarming- Somalia significantconcern (insufficient data) Thesearemanifestations of climatechangeresulting in a decline in economicgrowth A severechallenge for human security in HOA. Poses dangerssuch as threats, vulnerability as well as risksin human and natural systems. Call for a widening and deepening of the concept of security; in terms of dimensions and sectorsas well as levels and actors.

  6. The concept of Security governance Governancedenotesstructures and processes enabling a set of public and private actors to coordinatetheirinterdependentneeds and intereststhrough the making and implementation of binding policy decisions in the absence of a central politicalauthority. Security governance ”complimentstraditional models of security relations such as alliances, security regimes and securitycommunities”…by conceptualizing ”the complexnetworks of state and non-stateactors” ”in terms of the emergingshift from government to governance” .In this new arrangement there is ”differentiation in the making and implementation of securitypolicies” and an increasingwillingness of governments to rely on cooperation and resources from non-stateactors Impact on violentconflicts in the HOA and recasting it as a securitythreat

  7. The concept of Security governance….. Coperation and Fragmentation Cooperationin waron terror, international peacekeeping, refugeeresettlement and civil society promotion. National governments, and international organizationsareincorporatinga variety of private organizations at the local, regional and global levels to deal with issuessuch as humanitarianaid, human rightsmonitoring, refugees and militarytraining and protection. Authority is thereforefragmented

  8. Dimensions alongwhichgovernancecanbedifferentiated from Government • Geographicalscope • FunctionalScope • Distribution of resources • Interests • Norms • Decision making • Policy implementation

  9. SelectedActors and their interventions in the hoa/GhoA

  10. Overlaps, contradictions & gaps

  11. Outcomes

  12. Conclusion The triangle of climatechange, desertification and conflict is alreadyleading to: • Increase in threats to local and national livelihoods and environment; • Decreasinghealth standards; • Malnutrition and growing foodprices; • Increase in localconflicts with spilloversacrossborders over access to water, land, cattle and survival; • Poverty; • Forced migration ieClimateRefugees; • Predictions show clearly a worsening of the situation withinone or twodecadesand with the importantcaveatthat the link between multilateral institutions and national and localactors is becomingmuchweaker

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