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Characterising Climate Risks Breakout Workshop Presentation

This workshop presentation by Roger N. Jones from CSIRO Atmospheric Research explores the largest risks posed by climate variability and extremes, rather than direct consequences of mean climate change. It emphasizes the need for scenario builders to employ diverse methods and not be limited by global climate models. The text discusses the importance of quantifying vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation for current and future climates, and highlights thresholds as useful tools for linking performance criteria to climate. It also discusses the under-utilization of available risk characterization tools and the need to embrace uncertainty and develop probabilities.

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Characterising Climate Risks Breakout Workshop Presentation

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  1. Characterising Climate Risks Breakout Workshop Presentation Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research

  2. Characterising climate risks The largest risks come from climate variability and extremes rather being a direct consequence of mean climate change Scenario builders need to use a variety of methods to address this and not be limited by global climate models

  3. “I don’t just want to see variability, I want to see CHANGE” The Right Reverend Barry Smit First Church of the Evangelical Adaptor

  4. Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation V = I - A Vulnerability = Impacts - Adaptation

  5. Current climate

  6. Future climate - no adaptation

  7. Future climate with adaptation

  8. Impacted Performance Climate activity criteria variable Linking key climatic variables to impacts

  9. Critical thresholdsMacquarie River Catchment Irrigation 5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right Wetlands 10 consecutive years below bird breeding events

  10. Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (irrigation)

  11. Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (bird breeding)

  12. Characterising risk Climate change risk can be characterised according to a function of vulnerability related to probability × criticality Where criticality is a known threshold, measured by how far an impact is shifted out of the coping range. This can quantify V = I - A for individual impacts.

  13. Risk response surfaceChange in mean irrigation allocations in 2030

  14. Risk response surfaceChange in Macquarie Marsh inflows in 2030

  15. Probability distribution function for irrigation supply, dam supply and wetlands 2030

  16. Summary There are a large number of tools available for characterising climate risk that are under-utilised. Uncertainty will not go away, so one strategy is to fully embrace uncertainty and develop probabilities. Thresholds are important tools for linking performance criteria for specific activities to climate. They often involve one or more aspects of climate variability but can be very robust. Climate change for individual impacts often requires combinations of single event (mean change) and frequency-based uncertainties (variability) to be addressed in characterising risk

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