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Time for Real Tax Cuts. Presented by: Dawie Roodt 23 January 2007. Dawie Roodt. Chairman and Chief Economist Efficient Group 81 Dely Road Hazelwood 0081 Tel: (012) 460-9580 Cell: 082 456 0204 Email: dawie@efgroup.co.za. Economic Overview. Economic Overview. Background. Background.
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Time for Real Tax Cuts Presented by: Dawie Roodt 23 January 2007
Dawie Roodt Chairman and Chief EconomistEfficient Group81 Dely RoadHazelwood0081Tel: (012) 460-9580Cell: 082 456 0204Email: dawie@efgroup.co.za
Background Trevor’s reign! Gold
Summary • Increase Revenue • Decrease Expenditure • Boast Supply • Increase consumption expenditure • Saving (government vs households)
2006/07 in Review:Revenue * Estimated
Quick Calculation • 1995: Revenue (22.5% GDP) • 2005: GDP (fiscal): R1,417bn • 22.5% of GDP = Revenue (2005): R319bn • Actual Revenue: R347bn • Difference: R28bn Where is the tax cuts?
2006/07 in Review:Expenditure * Includes: Contingency Reserve (R3.1bn)
Main Expenditure trends • More for Education and Health • Services delivery to get more and more • Capital spending • World Cup • Housing • Let’s hope; safety and security - World Cup Higher revenue helps spending higher – danger!!
Close-up on South Africa (2004) Source: Unesco and World Bank Development Indicators
Education expenditure comparison (2002-2004 as available) Lesotho South Africa Equatorial Guinea Source: Human Development Report, 2006 (undp.org)
Adult Literacy Rate (2004) Estonia South Africa Mali Source: Human Development Report, 2006 (undp.org)
Pass Rate of SCE and Matriculation Exemption Source: HSRC
Pass Rate of SCE and Education Spending Source: HSRC
Learners Presenting For Standard and Higher Grade Exams Source: HSRC
Case Study: Flow of Pupils from Grade 1(1991) to Grade 12 (2002) Home Schooling? 1 207 066 learners 486 786 learners Note: Repeaters and drop outs not indicated Source: HSRC
Pupils-Teacher Ratio in Primary Education (Newest data available) Central African Republic Libya Weighted Average: 27.1 South Africa Source: UNESCO
Home Schooling • 1999: Between 6 000-10 000 parents giving home schooling • 2001: 15 000 parents • Reason: • “Quality of education in public schools is low” • “Implementation of outcome based education” • “Marks ‘adjusted’ for better results“ • Research conclusions: Gr.4 pupils in home schooling perform better than above average pupils in public schools Source: Tydskrif vir Geestenswetenskappe, Beeld 30 November 2006
Public Expenditure on Health comparison (2003-04) Iceland South Africa Myanmar Source: Human Development Report, 2006 (undp.org)
Health Spending as %GDP Source: Various Budgets
Life Expectancy at Birth (years)most recent 2000-05 Japan Swaziland South Africa Source: Human Development Report, 2006 (undp.org)
Number of HIV positive and cumulative HIV deaths Source: Centre for Actuarial Research and South African Medical Research Council, 2004
Estimated HIV prevalence amongst antenatal clinic attendees, by age Source: Avert international AIDS charity
Protection Services Spending as %GDP Source: Various Budgets and own calculation
Reported Crime Figures for the financial years 1994/95 to 2002/03 Source: Institute for Security Studies (issafrica.org)
Fast Crime and Policing Facts: • Change in different crimes 1994-2003: • Rape and attempted Rape: 17.2% • Murder: -17.0% • Robbery with aggravating circumstances: 49.7% • Policing Expenditure • % GDP: 2.0% (1994), 1.8% (2003) • % budget expenditure: 6.7% (1994), 7.9% (2003), 7.8% (2007 est) Source: Institute for Security Studies (issafrica.org) / own calculations
Police (per capita) by country (2000) Montserrat Costa Rica South Africa Source: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention