T he C ombating T errorism C enter

1. The Darkest Terror: The Threat of WMD and Catastrophic Terrorism The CombatingTerrorismCenter atwest point Dr. James Forest, Director of Terrorism Studies

2. the Problem • “Terrorists have declared their intention to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to inflict even more catastrophic attacks against the United States, our allies, partners, and other interests around the world. ” 2006 US National Strategy for Combating Terrorism • “The prospect that a nuclear capable state may lose control of some of its weapons to terrorists is one of the greatest dangers the US and its allies face.” Quadrennial Defense Review, February 6, 2006 • “The greatest threat to U.S. and global security is no longer a nuclear exchange between nations, but nuclear terrorism by violent extremists.” President Barak Obama, April 6, 2010

3. The Threat, PART 1 Intentions High High Capabilities & Opportunities Low Low

4. During the Cold War Bipolar international system Monopoly of nukes & CBW by strong, powerful states Terrorists did not cross threshold of mass destruction Nuclear terrorism ruled out because of stringent security surrounding atomic material in US/USSR The Post-Cold War threat environment has changed The Non-Proliferation Regime’s crisis of legitimacy & nuclear proliferation in South Asia, N Korea, the Middle East Fears of CBRN proliferation post-Soviet collapse Precedents set by Aum Shinriyko, LTTE and Chechen rebels The 2001 anthrax attacks in US Jihadi terrorist groups’ explicit interest in WMD to inflict mass casualties on their enemies Major advances in biotechnology The Environment

5. Opportunities • Transfer by a sympathetic national government, perhaps using export control loopholes • Assistance from custodians of nuclear weapons (security guards) • Unauthorized assistance from corrupt, angry or disenchanted, scientists/officials • Seizure without insider help via armed raids • Coup d’etat and chaos in a nuclear-armed failing state • Technical information to build a nuclear weapon is widely available • With relatively little radioactive material obtained from a power plant or medical facility, terrorists could construct a “dirty bomb”

6. Weapons 4 Weapon Types • Biological • Chemical • Radiological • Nuclear • Effects produced by Chemical and Biological Weapons are usually delayed and spread over time. • Terrorists, in contrast, prefer spectacular, massive impact, instant worldwide publicity, shock & awe effect • Nuclear or radiological may be more likely, but are significantly more difficult to design or acquire • WMD attack on agricultural sector?

7. Critical Infrastructure “Pre-positioned WMD?” • Nuclear power plants • arrests in Canada (2003), Britain (2004), Australia (2005), and India (2006) foiled plots to carry out attacks on nuclear plants • Chemical storage facilities • Bio-technology labs • Dams, water protection infrastructure (e.g., Hurricane Katrina) • Urban transportation of toxic chemicals, etc. • 9/11 attacks used a type of “pre-positioned” weapons

8. The Threat, Part 2 Intentions High High Capabilities & Opportunities Low Low

9. Ideologies of violence A Spectrum of Ideologies Threshold of catastrophic violence Nonviolent Protests Apocalyptic Terrorism Groups that want to change the world, but reject the need for violent means Groups that want to change the world, and see a need for violent means Groups that want to destroy the world, for various reasons,possibly with WMD

10. Al-Qaida & WMD • AQ has long expressed a direct interest in WMD. • “It is our religious duty to acquire nuclear and chemical weapons to terrorize the enemies of Allah”– Osama bin Laden, 1998 • The 11th volume of Al-Qaeda’s 5000-page “Encyclopedia of Jihad” is devoted to explaining how to construct Chemical and Biological Weapons • Saudi Cleric Shaykh Nasir Bin Hamd Al-Fahd attempted to religiously legitimize the use of WMDs • Revelations post-9/11 provide evidence AQ has sought to • Establish links with Pakistani nuclear scientists • Obtain nuclear suitcase bombs from Russia • Procure Bio-Chem agents from Czech Republic, Iraq, DPRK • Develop means for spreading disease and poison

11. Al-Qaida & WMD • Late 1993-1994: Al Qaida tries to acquire uranium in Sudan to use in a nuclear device (per Testimony by Jawal al-Fadl, Feb. 2001) • Dec 24, 1998: Bin Laden tells TIME magazine reporter, “Acquiring WMD for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty.” • Early 1999: AQ recruits Rauf Ahmed, mid-level Pakistani biologist, to develop a bio weapons program in Kandahar • 1991-2001: AQ training camps in Afghanistan conduct chemical, biological and radiological courses; Tarnak Farms led by Abu Khabab al-Masri (chemist) and Abu Musab al-Suri (prolific AQ theorist)

12. Al-Qaida & WMD • January 2001: New organization UTN founded by Bashiruddin Mahmood, former chief of Pakistan’s Khushab plutonium reactor and AQ sympathizer; he declares that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons should be “the property of the whole umma (global Muslim community).” • October 23, 2001: Several UTN members detailed by Pakistan Intelligence (ISID) at the request of U.S. Government; post-9/11 cooperation with the U.S. makes it harder for Pakistan to ignore the connections between its scientists and al Qaida. • October 2003: Nuclear weapons design and technology supply network, run by Pakistani chief scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, is uncovered; Libya gives up its clandestine nuclear program

13. Al-Qaida & WMD • November 2001: UTN founder BashiruddinMahmood and several others are formerly arrested in Pakistan; Mahmood confesses to meeting bin Laden and providing expertise for designing an improvised nuclear device; He claims that bin Laden suggests al-Qaida may already have nuclear material • October 21, 2002): Abu Musab al-Suri praises the 9/11 attacks, but said a better plan would have been to load the hijacked airplanes with weapons of mass destruction: "Let the American people - those who voted for killing, destruction, the looting of other nations' wealth, megalomania and the desire to control others - be contaminated with radiation." • May 21, 2003; Saudi cleric Nasir al Fahd publishes 26-page fatwa justifying use of WMD.

14. Religious Justifications?

15. Using WMD Against Infidels • Saudi Cleric Shaykh Nasir Bin Hamd Al-Fahd attempted to religiously legitimize the use of WMDs by stating that: • Laws and treaties established by infidels against the use of nuclear, biological and chemical weaponshave no standing in Islamic law. • Pronouncements of historical Islamic jurists legitimate WMD and provide exceptions to the prohibition against killing women and children. • Damage American bombs have done to Muslim lands over many years justifies revenge

16. Al-Qaida & WMD • August 2003: CNN airs video of AQ experiments in Afghanistan conducted on animals (particularly dogs) during the 1990s, involving various toxins and poisons like cyanide creams, ricin, mustard and sarin gas, and botulinum. • June 26, 2003: Armenian citizen GarikDadayan is caught with 170 grams of highly enriched uranium on the Georgia-Armenia border; interrogation reveals this was a sample of a larger amount that was being offered for sale to an unknown customer • 2006: A shipment of weapons grade (90% enriched) uranium is seized in Georgia and brought to the U.S. for analysis

17. Al-Qaida & WMD • September 28, 2006: Abu Ayyub al-Masri—the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq—encouraged his fellow terrorists to consider testing these weapons in Iraq: “The field of jihad (holy war) can satisfy your scientific ambitions, and the large American bases (in Iraq) are good places to test your unconventional weapons, whether biological or dirty, as they call them.” • July 28, 2008: Abu Khabab killed by a U.S. Predator strike in Pakistan

18. Why? On a strategic level, Al Qaida’s leaders want WMD because: • Damage the U.S. and West economically • Competition with other “voices” in the Muslim world, and a catastrophic terror attack will allow them to claim center stage • Supporters of the global salafi-jihadist movement want and expect a “spectacular” event even bigger than 9/11 • A mushroom cloud (visual impact) more than massive numbers of bio or chem deaths • Fuel aligned ideological movements by showing strength of weak against strong • America and the West have it coming; a WMD attack is necessary to “even the score”

19. A Global Response • Determine intentions (analysis of ideology, strategy) • Diminish, destroy capabilities • Group level • Environmental enablers • Domestic and international dimensions • All dimensions (DIME) of national power needed • Other aspects of our response?

20. Conclusion • WMD terrorist attacks require very specific kinds of intentions and capabilities • Few groups have WMD intentions, even fewer have capabilities • Al Qaida is considered by most analysts as one of the few groups in the “high intentions” and “potential high capability” category • No evidence that bin Laden has been able to translate interest in WMD into viable plans or operations • But, what we don’t know could be very frightening . . .

21. Questions?