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Is there 'White Flight' in England?

Is there 'White Flight' in England? . Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk ; g.harris1@bbk.ac.uk. http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass twitter: @ epkaufm.

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Is there 'White Flight' in England?

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  1. Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.uk http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm

  2. Reduce Immigration (a little or a lot) • 80.4% of white UK born respondents vs. 19.6% of UK-born whites who wish immigration to stay the same or increase Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey, 2010-11, geocoded with Census 2011

  3. Reduce the number of immigrants (a lot and a little) by social class and ward diversity (aggregated dataset) for all white respondents

  4. Local Contact, Metro Threat? • 22 studies at ward level (population generally 10,000-30,000) : 74 percent link higher diversity to reduced animosity, just 18 percent the reverse • 43 studies using units above 100,000 population: a significant increase in out-group hostility in 86 percent of these studies

  5. Feeling of threat at metro level as minorities grow, but positive contact at local level creates accommodation

  6. Selection Bias Problem Q: Why are whites in diverse areas more tolerant? A: Selection bias: whites who don’t like diversity leave, a.k.a. ‘white flight’ or white avoidance

  7. Selection Bias? • No one has properly tested • Test with BHPS/Understanding Society • Large sample, longitudinal, geocoded • Compare white British who enter and leave diverse wards • Compare white British movers (enter/leave) with those who stay • Proxy questions for attitude to immigration

  8. Simpson (2007) Method Diversity Seekers White Flight/Avoiders

  9. Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991-2011

  10. Simpson (2007) Method • White Flight/Avoiders • 24% Tory • 18% Working Class • 30% Degrees • 57% English Identity • 56% Tabloid • 32% 17-25s • 26% renters • 35% single • 12% anti-homosexual • 12% gender traditionalists • Diversity Seekers • 24% Tory • 18% Working Class • 27% Degrees • 57% English Identity • 46% Tabloid • 44% 17-25s • 50% renters • 49% single • 10% anti-homosexual • 9% gender traditionalists

  11. Not Selection • Whites moving to diverse areas and those leaving them are almost identical in voting, family values, English national identity, British patriotism, newspaper readership • No direct measure of immigration opinion, but research in Sweden finds identical pattern (Hedman et. al 2012)

  12. Mobility?: Stayers Differ From Movers • Swedish research shows that whites leaving diverse areas (Hedman et. al 2012) are more tolerant of immigration than whites who remain • Our work with BHPS corroborates this: movers are more tolerant on family values and morality, whilst stayers tend to be more nationalistic and defensive of Britain’s standing in the world.

  13. Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991-2011

  14. Stayers and far right support • Harris’ work on support for the far right in Greater London 2007-10: electoral support for the BNP stronger in wards with less in- and – outflow • Far right support linked with white enclaves nested within more ethnically diverse areas- bifurcated relationship with diversity (Goodwin 2011, Bowyer 2008) • Positive relationship at Local Authority (conflict) against negative at ward level (contact)

  15. Whites Favouring Reduced Immigration, by social class By Share of Ethnic Minorities in Ward By Share of Recent Immigrants (less than 10 years in UK) in Ward

  16. Those Favouring Reduced Immigration, by class: Role of Transience

  17. Reduce Immigration a lot • 59.7% of white UK born respondents agree

  18. Conclusion • Local context matters for views on immigration and vice-versa • Whites in diverse English wards more positive about immigration • Not because intolerant whites have self-selected out • But in part because whites in diverse areas are more transient

  19. Some support for contact theory: more in ameliorating strong opposition than in promoting acceptance of current levels • Limited effect on white working class attitudes • White attitudes to immigration may be softened by contact; however LA-level diversity may increase threat effect (further research will use multilevel analysis to parse this) • Further research: 4 focus groups; expand analysis to 5 waves of Citizenship Survey

  20. Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.uk http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm

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