Anticipatory Anthropology

1. Anticipatory Anthropology Thinking like a futurist

2. Anticipatory Anthropology • Area of anthropology that uses the perspective, theories, models, and methods of anthropology in an anticipatory manner. • Allows individuals, citizens, leaders, and governments to be better able to make informed policy decisions • Improving the community's or society's chances for realizing preferred futures and avoiding undesired ones

3. Anticipatory Anthropology • The term ‘anticipatory anthropology’ was introduced by anthropologist Marion Lundy Dobbert in 1984 • Anthropologists in preceding years had different terms for the same idea: • futurology, • futuristics, • anthropology of the future, and • speculative anthropology of cultural futures

4. Futurists • Futurists: • Try to suggest things that might happen in the future, so that people can decide what they want to make happen. • By looking at current trends, for example, it is possible to make a projection of what might be the case in the future

5. The World Future Society • The World Future Society is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association of people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future

7. Future Society • By studying the future, people can better anticipate what lies ahead. • They can actively decide how they will live in the future, by making choices today and realizing the consequences of their decisions.

8. Futures Research in Action http://superstructgame.org/

9. Global Trends • The future doesn't just happen: People create it through their action -- or inaction -- today. • If we can predict how culture will react to specific imputes, we can make some predictions about society

10. Future Society • The Society strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future • Ideas about the future include forecasts, recommendations, and alternative scenarios.

11. Anticipatory Example • President Kennedy's dream of placing a man on the moon and predicting it would occur before 1970 • This dream was embraced by America, and supported by an aggressive funding of research and development, and the implementation of a time factored plan

12. Moon Landing • The vision—the dream, the scenario—was realized in 1969 when homo sapiens took a first step onto the moon's pristine dusty surface—“an achievement that awed the world”

13. Dreamin • This sequence—the ‘dreaming’ followed by the ‘planning’ of actions to be implemented in pursuit of the dream—comprise the nature of futures studies and planning. • Also reflects human culture itself.

14. Anticipation • Anthropologists have been actively involved in the art of anticipation from a cultural perspective for well over 30 years. • Example: Margret Mead

15. Mead • Mead was persistent in her efforts from 1943 to 1977 to apply anthropology in anticipating and pre-figuring the future • Likely inspired the emergence of ‘futures studies’ in the mid-50's by her interest and research

16. Mead • She viewed human future as "neither predetermined nor predictable: it is, rather, something which lies within our hands, to be shaped and molded by the choices we make in present time."

17. Systems • Sharing a pattern, or system, of culture enables people to communicate and interact with one another appropriately and efficiently. • Systems also allow us to acculturate the next generation

18. Cultural Systems • Cultural Systems also allow us to predict future social systems • We can effect future cultural systems now by our choices now • Identifying those systems is where anthropologists come in…

19. Planned Changed • Anthropologists became involved in anticipation during social impact assessment research. • They assessed the social gains and losses that might be expected to accompany a program of planned change.

20. Applied Research • So applied research projects are concerned with assessing the future impacts of present policies • Thus the birth of anticipatory anthropology

21. Ethical Considerations • Futurists reflect their culture without knowing it; • Speaking for the world and forget that it is their cultural biases, their disciplinary education and their social character that is being expressed • Futurists must acknowledge the existence and the value of cultures, attitudes and objectives that are different from their own

22. Ethics • Futurists must be aware of etic systems of values and beliefs being projected to someone else's future • This may not end in the people willingly participating in the way of life that we would create for them (ex. eating beef in India)

23. Anthropological Eye • Anthropology sensitizing people to other ways of life, values and worldviews • Some VERY different from their own • Anthropology brings appreciation for the potentiality of cultural diversity

24. Ethnographic Method • Understanding of the human condition Ethnographic fieldwork approach • First hand observation of, and participation in, the daily behavior of the group under study for a prolonged period of time (over one year) in which the myriad details of everyday life, seasonal and unusual events and happenings may be experienced.

25. Anthropology’s Contribution • Because of this, anthropology can contribute to discussion and decision making by citizens, activists, leaders and governments of a given society, community or organization. • Especially where serious attention is paid to the means whereby preferable futures may be achieved, and undesirable ones avoided

26. Essays in anticipatory anthropology Victoria M. RazakDepartment of Anthropology, State University of New York, Buffalo, New York, USA • What does Razak hope will happen? • Truly collaborative emic/etic futures studies approach to the visioning and crafting of the future will become a standard approach used in the practice of foresight planning

27. What can be done? • Collaborative research creating an interface with theory, hindsight, practice and objectivity to provide a necessary broader context to the visioning process

28. Anticipatory Planning • The ethnographic approach used in conjunction with necessary quantitative data gathering and analysis, can straddle the divide between an etic (outsider point of view) based approach and an emic-centered approach to anticipatory planning.

29. Anticipatory planning • Anticipatory planning is really at the core of Futurism • Anthropologists have a unique set of tools for this kind of planning • Anthropologists should be involved in regional planning programs • Anthropologists should be involved in predicting social trends impacting development

30. Global Trends • So, if anticipatory anthropology seeks to understand cultural trends as they effect social organizations… • What have we learned? • Enter Raymond Scupin

31. Global Village • Globalization – the growth of global interdependence • Colonialization – the establishment of settler colonies, trading posts, and plantations with the metropole's own population, colonialism deals with this and the ruling of new territories' existing peoples. • (largely economic over the last 100 years)

32. Environmental Trends • Preindustrial societies • Foragers • Horticulturalist • Pastoralist • Intensive agriculture • Overall limited impact • Global Industrialism spreads after the industrial revolution • Agribusiness (Mechanized Agriculture)

33. Environmental Trends • Green Revolution • Not very green • Fossil fuels, Chemical Fertilizers, Genetically Modified Seeds, Pesticides • All energy intensive • Bhopal incident, Rivers in the Midwest, other drainage • Air and Water Pollution • Automobile, coal power, industry • Greenhouse Effect and global warming • CO2 build up…Natural or human-made? Doesn’t matter if we can see the effects…

34. Population Trends • Global growth over human history • Paleolithic: 10 million total population over the entire period • Neolithic: 300 million by 1 A.D. (advent of agriculture 10,000) • Industrial Revolution: Demographic Transition theory… • 1900: 1.6 billion • 1950: 2.5 billion • 2000: + 6 billion • 2040: + 8 billion • 2050: + 10 billion

35. Demographic-Transition Theory • Assumes a close connection between fertility and morality rates and socio-economic development. Phase one = high fertility rate is countered by a high morality rate Foragers such as the !Kung Phase two = population increases quickly due to lower morality rates and higher fertility rates Industrial Europe in the 1500s Phase three = fertility rates drop due to family planning and increasing costs of child rearing Germany/Italy today

36. Global Population • U.S. 307,571,579 (300 Million) • One birth every 7 seconds • One death every 13 seconds • One international migrant every 29 seconds • Net gain of one person every 9 seconds • World 6,787,153,505 (6.7 Billion) • Do we need to control population? Or will technological and economic adaptation allow us to continue to grow?

37. Global Population Trends • In the wealthy industrialized Core countries of the U.S., Japan, Europe • Low growth: below ZPG for some (Germany) • Peripheral Countries such as India, Bangladeshi, etc • Extremely fast growth rate • Globalization & death rate falls • High rates of population growth: • 3% doubles population every 25 years • 4% doubles population every 15 years

38. Global Technological Trends • Industrial technology: high energy usage, such technology necessary to compete in world market • Wealthy core countries: 15% of world population • Uses 80% of energy reserves • India, China, Mexico show high rate of increasing energy use…

39. Global Technological Trends The loss of biodiversity • Biodiversity is the genetic and biological variation with and among different species of plants and animals • About 50% of all species live in tropical rainforests • Global trends toward resource overuse leading to loss of biodiversity • Greatest level of mass extinction in global history?

40. Perspectives on Global Trends • Pessimistic and Optimistic views on globalization • Limits to growth model • What can the world sustain? Do we have the right to destroy all other species for our own continued expansion? • Pessimistic forecasts • The Doomsday Model • Club of Rome; predicted that at current resource use levels would lead to scarcity and economic collapse • Run out of resources in 100 years • Logic of growth model • Assumes that natural resources are infinite and that economic growth can continue indefinitely without long term harm to the environment • Argues population growth a stimulus for, not deterrent to, economic progress

41. Perspectives • Technology will solve all problems • Ethnographic Research on the green revolution • Positive and negative assessments • Case Study=Sikh village in India…adopted green revolution successfully • Villagers took economic risks that paid off • Villagers willing to learn new skills • Ethnographers contribution…his detailed report lead to his involvement in the planning process

42. Perspectives • Knowledge can solve all problems • Ethnographic research in Haiti • Intensive agriculture • Peasant farmers cut forests for fuel (cannot afford to buy fuel on wages) • Do not value replanting local varieties of trees (took too long to grow…) • Introduction of new tree species • New “tree farms” owned by peasant co-ops • Success lead to localized production of for-profit commodity

43. Global Solutions? • Conferences/Summits on Climate Change • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development • Represents industrialized nations • Kyoto Protocol established targets and limits for greenhouse gases • Bush Administration withdrew from the accords

44. Global Solutions • Sustainability Model • Suggests that societies globally need environments and technologies that provide subsistence • Model encourages resource management for future generations • Encourages growth that does not damage the environment • Requires global movement, not nation by nation solutions

45. Global Economic Trends • Multinational capitalism spreads • Are multinationals the new social institution? • Multinationals reorganizing industry • Eventually assume management of global affairs? Problems? • Positive assessment of Multinationals? • Jobs, technology, capital. Enhanced global economic development leads to reduction in poverty. • Negative Assessment? • Cheap labor, pollution, inequalities. Create benefits for wealthy elite, majority of population doesn’t participate in modernization

46. Global Political Changes • Nation-state too small? • Growth of the European Union • Global problems need multilateral solutions • Unified European continent? • Population, environment, economy, terrorism • World Bank, NAFTA, European Union, UN • Nation-state is too large? • Perceived threat to ethnic identify • Local level interests not being served • Localization of identity and the new identity movements like Scottish and Quebec independence THESE MOVEMENTS ARE A REFLECTION OF GLOBALIZATION AND THE WEAKINING OF NATIONALISTIC TIES!!!

47. Emerging Economic Trends • Globalization of the world economy • Changes in the socialist countries • State administered economies failed to compete globally (with one notable exception…) • Soviet Russia falls…Russian leaders call for economic reform • Adaptation of free-market capitalism • Cultural patterns lead to substantial hardships • Rise of crony capitalism (appointing people without proper skills because of loyalty) and corruption • Eastern Europe • Eastern Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia all reformed economies in the 1990s • China; liberalization of economy. Little political reform. Necessity of free speech and civil liberties for expanding market economy?

48. Global Religious Changes • Globalization creates secularization • Religion becomes separated from economy/environment • Individualization of religion • Responses to secularization • Fundamentalism; response to globalization’s challenge to traditional beliefs • Islamic fundamentalism • Christian (end of times cults) • Jewish (zionist colonialists) • Hindu (anti-Islamic movements) • Buddhist (anti-Chinese movements) • Re-emphasis on tradition • Religious substance as a means of restoring meaning to individuals lives • Gives people meaning and understanding of otherwise chaotic lives • Fearful of losing culture, values, traditions

49. Role of Anthropology • Active recording of local responses to globalization. • Understanding of dislocations, loss of identity • Understanding of localization and sustainability • Understanding of specific cultural aspirations • Synthesis of local studies with studies of global conditions • Anthropological studies of trends can help understand the globalization process