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Terrorism, Skyjacking & Embezzlement. Foreign and Domestic. Points About Terrorism. Definition: The killing and injuring of innocent civilians for political purposes The perceived threat from foreign terrorists to the USA (at home) is relatively new (since 9/11)

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Presentation Transcript
points about terrorism
Points About Terrorism
  • Definition: The killing and injuring of innocent civilians for political purposes
  • The perceived threat from foreign terrorists to the USA (at home) is relatively new (since 9/11)
  • Earlier skyjackings in the US were not by terrorists
  • Terrorism has been a threat since World War II in Europe, much of it connected to the Middle East
  • We can learn from comparing the US reaction to skyjacking, and attempts to control it
post 9 11
Attack

what

how

where

when

why? Why don’t our enemies love us?

Defense (focus)

what

how

where

when

why were we not prepared for the attack?

Post 9-11
us wars
Domestic (over here)

independence

1812

Civil

Foreign (over there)

Mexico: Halls of Moctezuma

Spanish: San Juan Hill & Manila Bay

WWI: France

WWII: North Africa, Europe, Pacific

Korea

Vietnam

Gulf: Desert Storm

Afghanistan and Iraq

US Wars
why were we not prepared theme 1 over there
Why were we not Prepared?Theme #1: “Over there… “

Chorus

Over there, over there,

Send the word, send the word over there -

That the Yanks are coming,

The Yanks are coming,

The drums rum-tumming

Ev\'rywhere.

So prepare, say a pray\'r,

Send the word, send the word to beware.

We\'ll be over, we\'re coming over,

And we won\'t come back till it\'s over

Over there.

america s best known world war i song
America’s Best Known World War I Song
  • “Over there, over there, send the word, send the word over there, that the yanks are coming, ….
terrorism in the usa
Terrorism in the USA
  • Home grown
  • Foreign imports
  • Remedies
over there
Over There
  • There have not been very many politically motivated attacks by foreign terrorists on the domestic USA until 9-11
    • World Trade Center ( Feb. 26, 1993)
learning from history
Learning from History
  • Skyjacking in the USA
    • first in the USA was 1961
    • in contrast to skyjackings abroad, at most one skyjacking at home was, maybe, politically motivated by a someone with connections to the Balkans
learning from economics
Learning from Economics
  • Thwarting embezzlement
    • inspection, I. E. audit
recent history of us terrorism
Recent History of US Terrorism
  • Bombings
    • World Trade Center, New York
      • 6 killed, 1000+ injureed
    • Murtaugh Federal Building, Oklahoma City
    • Black Churches
  • Skyjackings
slide12

WTC 1993

Blackhawk Down 1993

Saudi Arabia 1996

Africa 1998

slide16

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/february/26/newsid_2516000/2516469.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/february/26/newsid_2516000/2516469.stm

slide17

Facts:

My

Lecture

# 7 On

Corrections

Bureaucracy

“corrected”

slide18

Total International Terrorist Attacks

http://www.state.gov

Office of the Coordinator

for Counter-Terrorism

Patterns of Global Terrorism

slide19

Note: The

Small # of

Attacks in

North

America

slide20

Shock value

Of 9/11

Few attacks

In North

America, but

Many

Casualties

skyjackings
Skyjackings
  • The first skyjacking was a Peruvian carrier in February 1931
  • The first skyjacking of a US carrier was a National Airlines flight destined for Key West Florida on May 1, 1961
us response to domestic skyjackings
US Response to Domestic Skyjackings
  • Armed Federal Marshals on Flights
    • mostly on flights on the Eastern seaboard corridor
  • Congress Passes the US Civil Aviation Security Program in 1973
slide35

Model of US Skyjackings and Bomb Threats

Terrorism

Foreign

Skyjackings

US

Skyjackings

2 Year Lag

Bomb Threats

to US Aircraft

Inspection

borch model of inspection
Borch Model of Inspection
  • Two actors
    • employee(embezzler) & firm
    • skyjacker & airport security
  • Two sets of values or payoffs to the outcomes
  • No dominant strategy for either actor
  • Need to keep your adversary guessing
  • Embezzler’s expected outcome: break even
  • Firm’s expected outcome: dead-weight cost of inspection
slide40

Defense Against Embezzlement and Skyjacking

I. Options for choice: States of the world

Firm

No

Audit

E A

E Â

Embezzle

Employee

Ê A

Ê Â

Not

slide41

Defense Against Embezzlement and Skyjacking

II. Valuation of the options, i.e. choices

A. Payoffs to the employee

Audit

No

- 

G

Embezzle

0

0

Not

B. Payoffs to the firm

Audit

No

- C

- L

Embezzle

- C

0

Not

circular contest
Circular Contest
  • Best outcome for the employee
    • embezzle and no audit
  • Best outcome for the firm
    • no embezzling and no audit
  • Worst outcome for the employee
    • embezzle and get audited
  • Worst outcome for the firm
    • don’t audit and get embezzled
slide43

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

Payoff to the Employee

-

slide44

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

Payoff to the Employee

- C

Ê A

-

slide45

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

- 

Payoff to the Employee

- C

E A

Ê A

-

slide46

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

- 

G

Payoff to the Employee

- C

E A

Ê A

- L

E Â

-

slide47

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

- 

G

Payoff to the Employee

- C

E A

Ê A

- L

E Â

Probability of audit = 1

-

Probability of Audit = 0

firm can choose a probability of audit between 0 and 1
Firm Can Choose A Probability Of Audit Between 0 and 1
  • If PA = 1, then employee loses - 
  • If PA = 0, then employee gains G
  • How about a probability between 0 and 1 like G/( + G)
slide49

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

- 

G

Payoff to the Employee

- C

E A

Ê A

- L

Probability of audit = 1

E Â

-

Probability of Audit = 0

slide50

Defense Against Embezzlement and Skyjacking

Keep Your Adversary Guessing

Expected Payoff to the employee

Audit:

PA

No:

1 - PA

- 

G

Embezzle: PE

0

0

Not: 1- PE

PE PA(- ) + PE(1 - PA) G = 0 = No Incentive

PA(- ) + PA(- G) + G = 0 = PA(  + G) - G

PA = G / (+ G)

slide54

Reaction Curve of the Firm to the Employee

VF = PEPA(-C) +(1-PE)PA(-C) + PE(1-PA)(-L)

1.0

PE

C/L

0

0

PA

1.0

slide55

Reaction Curve of the Firm to the Employee

VF = PEPA(-C) +(1-PE)PA(-C) + PE(1-PA)(-L)

1.0

PE

C/L

0

G/(G+P

0

PA

1.0

post 9 111
Attack

what

how

where

when

why? Why don’t our enemies love us?

Defense (focus)

what

how

where

when

why were we not prepared for the attack?

Post 9-11
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