Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement
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Terrorism, Skyjacking & Embezzlement. Foreign and Domestic. Points About Terrorism. Definition: The killing and injuring of innocent civilians for political purposes The perceived threat from foreign terrorists to the USA (at home) is relatively new (since 9/11)

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Terrorism, Skyjacking & Embezzlement

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Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Terrorism, Skyjacking & Embezzlement

Foreign and Domestic


Points about terrorism

Points About Terrorism

  • Definition: The killing and injuring of innocent civilians for political purposes

  • The perceived threat from foreign terrorists to the USA (at home) is relatively new (since 9/11)

  • Earlier skyjackings in the US were not by terrorists

  • Terrorism has been a threat since World War II in Europe, much of it connected to the Middle East

  • We can learn from comparing the US reaction to skyjacking, and attempts to control it


Post 9 11

Attack

what

how

where

when

why? Why don’t our enemies love us?

Defense (focus)

what

how

where

when

why were we not prepared for the attack?

Post 9-11


Us wars

Domestic (over here)

independence

1812

Civil

Foreign (over there)

Mexico: Halls of Moctezuma

Spanish: San Juan Hill & Manila Bay

WWI: France

WWII: North Africa, Europe, Pacific

Korea

Vietnam

Gulf: Desert Storm

Afghanistan and Iraq

US Wars


Why were we not prepared theme 1 over there

Why were we not Prepared?Theme #1: “Over there… “

Chorus

Over there, over there,

Send the word, send the word over there -

That the Yanks are coming,

The Yanks are coming,

The drums rum-tumming

Ev'rywhere.

So prepare, say a pray'r,

Send the word, send the word to beware.

We'll be over, we're coming over,

And we won't come back till it's over

Over there.


America s best known world war i song

America’s Best Known World War I Song

  • “Over there, over there, send the word, send the word over there, that the yanks are coming, ….


Terrorism in the usa

Terrorism in the USA

  • Home grown

  • Foreign imports

  • Remedies


Over there

Over There

  • There have not been very many politically motivated attacks by foreign terrorists on the domestic USA until 9-11

    • World Trade Center ( Feb. 26, 1993)


Learning from history

Learning from History

  • Skyjacking in the USA

    • first in the USA was 1961

    • in contrast to skyjackings abroad, at most one skyjacking at home was, maybe, politically motivated by a someone with connections to the Balkans


Learning from economics

Learning from Economics

  • Thwarting embezzlement

    • inspection, I. E. audit


Recent history of us terrorism

Recent History of US Terrorism

  • Bombings

    • World Trade Center, New York

      • 6 killed, 1000+ injureed

    • Murtaugh Federal Building, Oklahoma City

    • Black Churches

  • Skyjackings


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

WTC 1993

Blackhawk Down 1993

Saudi Arabia 1996

Africa 1998


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

USS Cole 2000

9/11


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Reward: $2,000,000


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/february/26/newsid_2516000/2516469.stm


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Facts:

My

Lecture

# 7 On

Corrections

Bureaucracy

“corrected”


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Total International Terrorist Attacks

http://www.state.gov

Office of the Coordinator

for Counter-Terrorism

Patterns of Global Terrorism


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Note: The

Small # of

Attacks in

North

America


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Shock value

Of 9/11

Few attacks

In North

America, but

Many

Casualties


Skyjackings

Skyjackings

  • The first skyjacking was a Peruvian carrier in February 1931

  • The first skyjacking of a US carrier was a National Airlines flight destined for Key West Florida on May 1, 1961


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

The Legend of D. B. Cooper


Us response to domestic skyjackings

US Response to Domestic Skyjackings

  • Armed Federal Marshals on Flights

    • mostly on flights on the Eastern seaboard corridor

  • Congress Passes the US Civil Aviation Security Program in 1973


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Model of US Skyjackings and Bomb Threats

Terrorism

Foreign

Skyjackings

US

Skyjackings

2 Year Lag

Bomb Threats

to US Aircraft

Inspection


Borch model of inspection

Borch Model of Inspection

  • Two actors

    • employee(embezzler) & firm

    • skyjacker & airport security

  • Two sets of values or payoffs to the outcomes

  • No dominant strategy for either actor

  • Need to keep your adversary guessing

  • Embezzler’s expected outcome: break even

  • Firm’s expected outcome: dead-weight cost of inspection


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Defense Against Embezzlement and Skyjacking

I. Options for choice: States of the world

Firm

No

Audit

E A

E Â

Embezzle

Employee

Ê A

Ê Â

Not


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Defense Against Embezzlement and Skyjacking

II. Valuation of the options, i.e. choices

A. Payoffs to the employee

Audit

No

- 

G

Embezzle

0

0

Not

B. Payoffs to the firm

Audit

No

- C

- L

Embezzle

- C

0

Not


Circular contest

Circular Contest

  • Best outcome for the employee

    • embezzle and no audit

  • Best outcome for the firm

    • no embezzling and no audit

  • Worst outcome for the employee

    • embezzle and get audited

  • Worst outcome for the firm

    • don’t audit and get embezzled


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

Payoff to the Employee

-


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

Payoff to the Employee

- C

Ê A

-


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

- 

Payoff to the Employee

- C

E A

Ê A

-


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

- 

G

Payoff to the Employee

- C

E A

Ê A

- L

E Â

-


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

- 

G

Payoff to the Employee

- C

E A

Ê A

- L

E Â

Probability of audit = 1

-

Probability of Audit = 0


Firm can choose a probability of audit between 0 and 1

Firm Can Choose A Probability Of Audit Between 0 and 1

  • If PA = 1, then employee loses - 

  • If PA = 0, then employee gains G

  • How about a probability between 0 and 1 like G/( + G)


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

+

Payoff to the Firm

Ê Â

-

+

- 

G

Payoff to the Employee

- C

E A

Ê A

- L

Probability of audit = 1

E Â

-

Probability of Audit = 0


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Defense Against Embezzlement and Skyjacking

Keep Your Adversary Guessing

Expected Payoff to the employee

Audit:

PA

No:

1 - PA

- 

G

Embezzle: PE

0

0

Not: 1- PE

PE PA(- ) + PE(1 - PA) G = 0 = No Incentive

PA(- ) + PA(- G) + G = 0 = PA(  + G) - G

PA = G / (+ G)


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Reaction Curve of the Employee to the Firm

1.0

PE

0

1.0

PA

G/( + G)


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Reaction Curve of the Employee to the Firm

1.0

PE

0

1.0

PA

G/( + G)


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Reaction Curve of the Employee to the Firm

1.0

PE

0

1.0

PA

G/( + G)


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Reaction Curve of the Firm to the Employee

VF = PEPA(-C) +(1-PE)PA(-C) + PE(1-PA)(-L)

1.0

PE

C/L

0

0

PA

1.0


Terrorism skyjacking embezzlement

Reaction Curve of the Firm to the Employee

VF = PEPA(-C) +(1-PE)PA(-C) + PE(1-PA)(-L)

1.0

PE

C/L

0

G/(G+P

0

PA

1.0


Post 9 111

Attack

what

how

where

when

why? Why don’t our enemies love us?

Defense (focus)

what

how

where

when

why were we not prepared for the attack?

Post 9-11


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