1 / 6

Previous Reserve Margin Calculation - 2005

Summer Readiness Report Presented To ERCOT Board Of Directors May 17, 2005 Sam Jones, COO System Operations. Previous Reserve Margin Calculation - 2005. Updated Reserve Margin Calculation - 2005. Updated Calculation Assumptions. TAC-approved Changes

marly
Download Presentation

Previous Reserve Margin Calculation - 2005

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Summer Readiness ReportPresented ToERCOT Board Of DirectorsMay 17, 2005 Sam Jones, COO System Operations

  2. Previous Reserve Margin Calculation - 2005

  3. Updated Reserve MarginCalculation - 2005

  4. Updated Calculation Assumptions • TAC-approved Changes • Net dependable capacity from latest summer season test used for all Generating Resource capacities • Wind capacity value counted as 2.9% of nameplate • 50% of DC Ties’ capacity included • 100% of Switchable units are included except one GT that has notified ERCOT of unit specific firm commitment outside ERCOT • New ERCOT Information • PH Robinson 2 is RMR • All other Tx Genco announced retirements are excluded • B.M. Davis 1 included in operational capacity (unit 2 is RMR) • All mothballed units are unavailable for 2005 • Load Forecast Assumption • Peak forecast based on trend methodology

  5. Overall System Situation • No known significant congestion concerns • Currently scheduled transmission and generation outages do not cause problems • P H Robinson and Barney Davis units are being kept on RMR to ensure adequate voltage control in the Houston and Corpus Christi industrial areas • McCamey area • Scheduled Transmission line projects are complete • Reactive support projects are still being implemented • Export is now up to 620 MW • Econometric forecast and updated LTDF and reserve margin forecast is expected by 6/1/05

  6. Load Forecast • Current load forecast • Based on a simplistic trending of historic ERCOT peak demand growth • Unadjusted for weather or economic conditions • New econometric load forecast • Based on regression equations that describe the historic hourly load of the ERCOT System as a function of certain economic and temperature variables • Forecasted economic variables (obtained from an economic forecasting service) and temperature profile are used in the regression equations to forecast hourly ERCOT System loads

More Related