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Contango Oil & Gas Company

Contango Oil & Gas Company. Lawyer Stuff.

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Contango Oil & Gas Company

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  1. Contango Oil & Gas Company

  2. Lawyer Stuff This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding Contango that are intended to be covered by the safe harbor "forward-looking statements" provided by of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, based on Contango’s current expectations and includes statements regarding acquisitions and divestitures, estimates of future production, future results of operations, quality and nature of the asset base, the assumptions upon which estimates are based and other expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions, strategies or statements about future events or performance (often, but not always, using words such as "expects", “projects”, "anticipates", "plans", "estimates", "potential", "possible", "probable", or "intends", or stating that certain actions, events or results "may", "will", "should", or "could" be taken, occur or be achieved). Statements concerning oil and gas reserves also may be deemed to be forward looking statements in that they reflect estimates based on certain assumptions that the resources involved can be economically exploited. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those, reflected in the statements. These risks include, but are not limited to: the risks of the oil and gas industry (for example, operational risks in exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; risks and uncertainties involving geology of oil and gas deposits; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to future production, costs and expenses;

  3. ….More Lawyer Stuff potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; health, safety and environmental risks and risks related to weather such as hurricanes and other natural disasters); uncertainties as to the availability and cost of financing; fluctuations in oil and gas prices; risks associated with derivative positions; inability to realize expected value from acquisitions, inability of our management team to execute its plans to meet its goals, shortages of drilling equipment, oil field personnel and services, unavailability of gathering systems, pipelines and processing facilities and the possibility that government policies may change or governmental approvals may be delayed or withheld. Additional information on these and other factors which could affect Contango’s operations or financial results are included in Contango’s other reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  Investors are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from the projections in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on the estimates and opinions of management at the time the statements are made. Contango does not assume any obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or management's estimates or opinions change.

  4. …. And More Lawyer Stuff “There are three reasons why lawyers are replacing rats as laboratory research animals. One is that they’re plentiful, another is that lab assistants don’t get attached to them, and the third is that there are some things rats just won’t do” -Unknown

  5. CONTANGO – a natural gas centric, non crude oil oriented – never to be confused with anything remotely related to manufacturing - company with a business model focused on drilling wildcat exploration wells with a minimum of debt and shareholder dilution

  6. Contango’s Core BeliefsFrom Inception • The only competitive advantage in the natural gas and oil business is to be among the LOWEST COST producers • Virtually all the exploration and production industry’s VALUE CREATION occurs through the drilling of successful exploration wells • The whole point of a business is only and always to increase shareholder wealth…i.e. value creation PER SHARE “Beliefs are optional, Results are mandatory and the only result that matters is total return to shareholders” -Kenneth R. Peak

  7. (E) (E) • From a full cycle cost perspective the industry is losing money • Full cycle costs are now on the incline • I think the industry needs around $6.00/Mcfe to earn a 5-10% ROR “Only the average are always at their best” -Jean Giraudoux

  8. NYMEX Natural Gas Price Required to Earn a 10 % ROACE - UBS *Source: UBS

  9. Value Creation and Risk • Find, Develop & Acquire Capex (last 3 fiscal years)….....$556 million • Reserves added ……………................................................408 Bcfe F & D & A $1.36/Mcfe • DD&A for 12 months ended June 30, 2009……………...$1.17/Mcfe • A LOW DD&A IS NOT VALUE CREATION IF IT IS ACHIEVED THROUGH FULL COST POOL WRITE DOWNS • Debt adjusted PV-10 per Mcfe (PV-10 - Debt)/Mcfe: • June 30, 2009 (millions) ($890 - $0)/355 = $2.51 Gas Price: $4.09/Mcf • September 30, 2009 (millions) ($773 - $0)/347 = $2.23 Gas Price: $3.48/ Mcf • December 31, 2009 (millions) ($914 - $0)/350 = $2.61 Gas Price: $4.06/Mcf “You can’t steal second base and keep one foot on first” - Unknown

  10. What Contango Doesn’t Have • Lots of shares O/S • Lots of shareholders • Lots of options O/S • Lots of paid in capital vs R/E (SEE “PEAK RATIO”) • Lots of PUD’s • Lots of employees • Lots of wells • Lots of Landowners • Lots of Regulators • Near term leases expiring • L-T rig contracts • Debt • Severance Taxes • Hedges “Sometimes what you don’t have is more important than what you do have” -Kenneth R. Peak

  11. Contango’s Owners(As at 12/31/09) “Writing a check separates a commitment from a conversation” - Warren Buffet

  12. Investors should examine…… • The PAST…. • Does the company have a history of being profitable? • What’s their track record in creating value per share? • What about share price appreciation over past 5, 3, 1 year(s)? • ……The PRESENT • How do current earnings/cash flow/reserves/production – all per share look? • What about value per share…per Mcfe…per employee? • ……And the FUTURE • What are reasonable expectations about earnings per share growth ? “You can’t have a return ON Capital, until you have a return OF Capital, and then earn a PROFIT.” - Kenneth R. Peak

  13. Shareholder Dilution? Net Negative Capital Negative Dilution “They say you can’t do it, but sometimes it doesn’t always work”-Casey Stengal

  14. The Past • History of Profits? The Balance Sheet has the Answer • Peak Ratio Defined: Shareholder Earnings = R/E + Dividends Net Invested Capital Equity – (R/E + Dividends) • Contango’s Peak Ratio Calculated as at 12/31/10: R/E + Dividends = $363.4 + 5.4 = $368.8 = 27.93X Equity – (R/E + Dividends) $382-(363.4 + 5.4) $13.2 • Peak Market Cap Ratio: Market Cap = Shares O/S x Price = $870 = 66X Net Invested Capital Net Invested Capital $13.2 • Growth in Book Value/Share ($/Share) “Past performance is no guarantee of future results – but it is the way to bet” - Kenneth R. Peak

  15. STOCK PRICE APPRECIATIONONE YEAR COMPARISON Jan. 1, 2009 – Dec. 31, 2009 SHALE OFFSHORE MCF My favorite Chart…

  16. STOCK PRICE APPRECIATIONTHREE YEAR COMPARISON Jan. 1, 2007 – Dec. 31, 2009 BOOK VALUE MCF SHALE OFFSHORE Buffet is Right…..Again

  17. STOCK PRICE APPRECIATION FIVE YEAR PERFORMANCE COMPARISON Jan. 1, 2005 – Dec. 31, 2009 BOOK VALUE MCF SHALE OFFSHORE “Anyone who believes a growth rate in excess of 15% per annum over the long term is attainable should pursue a career in sales, but avoid one in mathematics” -Warren Buffet

  18. The Present • Multiple Metrics; Per Share; Per Mcfe Produced; Per Employee *For the 12 months ended, or, as at, 12/31/09, as appropriate “Measure 9 times, cut once” Tevye – Fiddler on the Roof

  19. The Future • Ship Shoal 263 comes on mid-summer at 20 Mcfed • Dude (MI – 617) - Drilling • Eloise South/Dutch #5 - Drilling • Paisano (VM – 155) – Drilling • Spud Onshore Farm-In – Before June 30 • Spud His Dudeness – Before Year-End • Lease Sale Prospects – March 17 – we were AHB on all three! • Conterra Onshore - Ongoing • CORE – End of year “Contango is a company with most of its future still in front of it” - Yogi Peak

  20. The Big Picture • CHINA DRIVES CRUDE • World’s second largest economy (8.8% of global GOP) • Out competing U.S. in securing world’s crude oil • Keeps crude on the bid • SHALE GAS IS OUR SALVATION • U.S. has 100 years supply NatGas • Green keeps a bid on NatGas via power generation and transportation • Why subsidize people who hate us? • So simple even our Congress will figure it out……..Eventually • UP FRONT CAPITAL NEEDS ARE ENORMOUS • XOM – XTO • Devon GOM/INTL Sale to focus on shale • Technology will drive F&D costs lower • Red Queen depletion rates • BUT…DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE “ARB” • Service companies are “for profit” entities with hurdle rates too • Service Co’s consolidate…E & P’s proliferate • Landowner’s are increasingly sophisticated – no more 1/8th royalties • States/Counties/Parishes need money – fees, ad valorem, income, sales and severance taxes • Water In / Water Out: Reg’s and more Reg’s • LOTS OF GAS, BUT THE WIND IS AT OUR BACK • No Nuke’s nowhere near no one • Carbon capture can’t conflate coal consumption • Production profile plumped “It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we know that ain't so.” - Will Rodgers

  21. The Wind at our Backs NEW YORK TIMES WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2010 Vermont Senate Votes to Close Nuclear Plant WALL STREET JOURNALMONDAY, APRIL 5, 2010 NEW YORK TIMES WEDNESDAY, APRIL 6, 2010 WALL STREET JOURNALMONDAY, APRIL 5, 2010 L.A. Spars Over Green Energy

  22. GOM Economics So…’splain me again… why is Contango so busy Drilling? • Acreage, G & G and seismic costs last 4 years combined: $10 million • NRI to Contango AFTER landowner ORRI and AFTER G & G Promote: 70-72% • Severance Tax: 0% • Ad Valorem Tax: 0% • Sales & Use Tax: 0% • State Income Tax: 0% • LOE(1) $.50 • G & A(1) $.20 • If NAT GAS @ $3.92/Mcf – Contango Receives(1) $5.20/Mcfe • If Contango produces 64.9 Mcfd – Contango Sells (1) 85.2 Mcfed • Contango is a Taxpayer: We have no NOL Carry Forwards 35% Risk Partner • Contango is a Taxpayer at $2.00 Gas: Drill – Baby Drill Good • Rig costs are less than half of 2 year ago levels Better • One Landowner – MMS Excellent • Lot’s of nearby infrastructure Wonderful • No Nimby’s to deal with Priceless • Yes, we will drill dry holes – The E in E & P stands for Exploration Reality (1) Average for 6 months ended December 31, 2009

  23. In Conclusion………..Do the Math…………. • Who has positive retained earnings? • Who has lower DD & A (look to R/E) • Who has lower LOE? (include – W/O’s; SVC Tax; Insurance) • Who has lower debt? • Who has lower G & A? (Include – Cap G&A, “non-cash” option expense) • Who has more PDP Mcfe’s/Share? • Who has more exploration upside per share? • Who has more commodity price upside? • Who doesn’t have an NOL carry-forward? Who has a 35% partner? • Who has fewer shares today than 1,3,5,7,9 years ago? • Which CEO’s haven’t taken options the last 3 years? Incentives drive behavior. “The further backward you look, the further forward you can see” - Winston Churchill

  24. Golden Factoids: GOLD:Most precious of metals: Atomic Number 79: Au-Aurum – “Shining dawn” • YIELD: 0% • WEIGHT MEASURE: 1 Troy oz. = 31.12305 grams • MINED: Only 161,000 tonnes mined in history of the world, ± $6 Trillion in March 2010 • CONSUMPTION: - Never Consumed – all gold ever found is still around • All the gold on earth could be held in a couple bank vaults • A worthless ore-body at $600/troy oz. can be a bonanza $1,100/troy oz. • New mined gold production has been declining for a decade • After two years of multitrillion spending , unemployment is ± 10% and the S & P 500 is where it was 12 years ago – NASDAQ is down 50%. • Gold since the beginning of time has been accepted as a store of value and offers wealth protection in times of deflation and inflation “The system worked well” - Secretary of Homeland Defense, Janet Napolitano “You’re doing a heckuva job Brownie” – President G.W. Bush

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