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How to Reach Zettaflops

SAND2008-2492C. How to Reach Zettaflops. Erik P. DeBenedictis Avogadro-Scale Computing April 17, 2008 The Bartos Theater Building E15 MIT.

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How to Reach Zettaflops

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  1. SAND2008-2492C How to Reach Zettaflops Erik P. DeBenedictis Avogadro-Scale Computing April 17, 2008 The Bartos Theater Building E15 MIT Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for theUnited States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  2. Outline • Why Strive for Zettaflops? • Global Warming Mission • How Far Will CMOS Go? • “Beyond CMOS” Alternatives • The Zettaflops Workshops: Political Landscape • International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) Activity • My Answers on “How to Reach Zettaflops”

  3. Climate Modeling as an Application • SCaLeS study included section on climate • Understanding and mitigating global warming analyzed and requires 1 Zettaflops

  4. Outline • Why Strive for Zettaflops? • Global Warming Mission • How Far Will CMOS Go? • “Beyond CMOS” Alternatives • The Zettaflops Workshops: Political Landscape • International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) Activity • My Answers on “How to Reach Zettaflops”

  5. Big Spreadsheet Columns are years Rows are 100+ transistor parameters Manual entry of process parameters by year Excel computes operating parameters Extra degrees of freedom go to making Moore’s Law smooth – not the best computers ITRS Process Integration Spreadsheet

  6. ITRS Spreadsheet Structure Target is exponential in “Years in Future” Line Width Scaling ITRS 2003 supplementary material Fprocessor is result of 96 rows of targets, inputs, and iterative calculation Result usually matches to one decimal place!

  7.  QDCA Best Case Logic  QDCA mP CMOS Best Case Logic CMOS mP Workup for Climate Modeling • Conclusion: CMOS to 200 Petaflops;QDCA to .5 Zettaflops

  8. Outline • Why Strive for Zettaflops? • Global Warming Mission • How Far Will CMOS Go? • “Beyond CMOS” Alternatives • The Zettaflops Workshops: Political Landscape • International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) Activity • My Answers on “How to Reach Zettaflops”

  9. We need some data point on performance Graph to right from a published paper by Lent et. al. Notre Dame on quantum dot cellular automata However, architectural considerations say their operating points are not ideal Reversible Logic Parameters Edissirreversibleoperation 101 100 10-1 kBTloge(2) 10-2 Operating Point Energy/Ek 10-3 Memory Operating Point 10-4 10-5 Ek=0.5 eV T=60K Edissreversibleoperation 10-6 10-7 Tc(s) 10-14 10-13 10-12 10-11 Figure 8: Molecular Quantum Dot Cellular Automata speed-energy curve for irreversible and reversible operation (courtesy of C. Lent) with operating points used in this paper labeled.

  10.  QDCA Best Case Logic  QDCA mP CMOS Best Case Logic CMOS mP Workup for Climate Modeling • Conclusion: CMOS to 200 Petaflops;QDCA to .5 Zettaflops

  11. CMOS per ITRS roadmap With operating points adjusted for climate modeling machines instead of matching Moore’s Law 200 Petaflops @ 2 MW DARPA Exascale study 1 Exaflops @ >2 MW A New Computing Device Notre Dame QDCA Reversible Logic .5 Zettaflops CMOS and Beyond CMOS Limits

  12. Outline • Why Strive for Zettaflops? • Global Warming Mission • How Far Will CMOS Go? • “Beyond CMOS” Alternatives • The Zettaflops Workshops: Political Landscape • International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) Activity • My Answers on “How to Reach Zettaflops”

  13. Testing the Political Waters in 2005 & 2007 • Question: Among policy makers, is Moore’s Law more powerful than Landauer’s Limit? • If Moore’s Law is more powerful, no chance of funding physics of computing research • If Landauer’s limit is more powerful, physics of computation research is the only way to continue the computer industry • Method: Run a workshop on Exaflops and Zettaflops and see how the participants sort out the difference

  14. Testing Procedure 2007

  15. Results of Experiment • Answer in 2005 • No distinction between Exaflops and Zettaflops • Answer in 2007 • Audience renamed it the Exaflops conference (because 90% of the conclusions pertained to Exaflops) • Everybody left understanding the distinction between Exaflops and Zettaflops

  16. Outline • Why Strive for Zettaflops? • Global Warming Mission • How Far Will CMOS Go? • “Beyond CMOS” Alternatives • The Zettaflops Workshops: Political Landscape • International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) Activity • My Answers on “How to Reach Zettaflops”

  17. Selecting Successor to CMOS by 12/31/2008 • From meeting and e-mail to committee  • The semiconductor industry is waking up • Downselect “beyond CMOS” options through a advocate/skeptic competition

  18. Downselect Criteria

  19. Downselect Criteria

  20. Outline • Why Strive for Zettaflops? • Global Warming Mission • How Far Will CMOS Go? • “Beyond CMOS” Alternatives • The Zettaflops Workshops: Political Landscape • International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) Activity • My Answers on “How to Reach Zettaflops”

  21. How to Reach Zettaflops (I/III) • End-user application: Understanding and mitigating global warming to save the Earth • The climate modeling community can supply representatives that say 1 Zettaflops is needed • Computer required: anything >2 Exaflops • DARPA IPTO is preparing a plan for 1 Exaflops but that looks like a stretch goal for mature CMOS • Reference Zettaflops workshop that there is no CMOS solution beyond 1 Exaflops

  22. How to Reach Zettaflops (II/III) • Perform physical science research and discover a new computing device • ITRS calls this the “new switch” • we can guarantee it won’t be a switch • NRI, NSF, maybe national labs have infrastructure in place and can distribute research funds • Downselect competition complete12/31/2008 • may I be your sponsor? • Generate funds from Government and industry through appeal to end-user application

  23. How to Reach Zettaflops (III/III) • You will need a • Sub kT classical information processing device • Quantum computer won’t solve problems of the necessary public interest • Compatible interconnect • Compatible memory and storage • A new computer architecture • Post von Neumann, post parallel von Neumann, must be some sort of heterogeneous accelerated quasi-special purpose architecture

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