How can we more effectively inform governance decisions at multiple scales:

1. How can we more effectively inform governance decisions at multiple scales: land management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions ? • SSWR - Signature Project - Talk Outline • Goals • Conceptual framework (for Social-Ecological System) • Key upper level questions, guiding aspects of the research • We need to understand system, to better inform governance decisions • Planned research products and schedule (2012-2017) • Trends (in part based on published literature and historical data) & Scenarios • Communication for conservation (multiple goals) • Need for collaboration (research and management) • Additional Sides (References) In PPT presentation mode, multiple active hyperlinks

2. SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. Purpose of the SSWR Signature Project • Goals: • Demonstrate an approach to integrated nutrient management for the Narragansett • Bay system • Provide solutions that can be broadly applied to other coastal watersheds and their • associated estuaries • Such that nutrient management decisions in Southern New England ecosystems • and watersheds are made in a holistic manner • So that human well-being and ecosystem condition are maintained, protected • or improved.

3. SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. A systems approach for organizing management and research questions • Drivers of change: • Global climate change, • population growth & land use change • biogeochemical cycles Adaption of Collins et al 2011 Frontiers in Ecology Press Pulse Dynamics Framework, • Scales : National, Regional, Local • Decisions • Air • Land • Water ORD Informing Social context Biotic context • Disturbances & Enhancements • Physical • hydrologic • sediments • thermal • Chemical • nutrients • contaminants • Biological • habitat • biota Human Behavior land management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions. Ecosystem Structure Q1 ERF’s Human Outcomes variations in quality and quantity of water & effects on: 1) designated uses of water, 2) human health & well being (e.g. aesthetics) 3) economic values Ecosystem Function EPF’s Demand for and access to services Sustainable Water & other ecosystem services Supply of services

4. To better inform decisions at a range of governance scales: There are a number of questions the research program needs to answer: 1) How has the management of Narragansett Bay and its watershed to date impacted the disturbances, enhancements, and ecosystem structure and function? (2) How do both drivers of change, and disturbances / enhancements (specifically nutrient related impacts) affect ecosystem structure and function, and ultimately sustainable water resources? (3) How can future governance decisions be informed or supported at multiple scales, related to management of the system to help assure sustainable water resources and desirable human outcomes? Need to informing a range of regulatory and non-regulator human behaviors related to possible physical, chemical and biological enhancements.

5. SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. • Need to understand: • the specific system to be managed • desired outcomes (e.g in case studies) • Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia, watershed & airshed • Chesapeake Bay, watershed & airshed • Narragansett Bay, watershed, & airshed • larger & local scale drivers of change • key ecosystem structures & functions • human outcomes & behavior • how management networks operate • how research networks inform decisions • Are Agency policies & governance decisions at multiple scales related to • air, land, and water, enabling or inhibiting systems solutions? End users in governance at a range of scales . knowledge information data For Nr we could look at source reduction and sink enhancement.

6. Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England SSWR Signature Project & Planned Research Products: • 2014: Trend analysis of stressors and ecological responses, particularly nutrients, in the Narragansett Bay • Watershed How is the watershed and estuary changing over time? • 2014: Assessment of past & present governance decisions affecting nutrient fluxes • Are we learning from different policy cycles? • 2015: Quantitative models describing past and current nutrient fluxes and associated ecosystem level • responses How much of the observed variation is predictable and controllable? • Requires combination of measurements, experimentation and quantitative models. • 2015: A systems analysis of nutrient management scenarios under climate variation for Narragansett Bay • Watershed How can future scenarios be designed to inform key future decisions? • 2016Key Product: Decision support tools to inform decisions at multiple scales affecting nutrient flux and the • trajectory change within the Narragansett Bay Watershed as a demonstration: • Are the conceptual approaches, information, and decision support tools useful to end users? • 2017: A guidance manual for extrapolation and transferring the tools to other coastal watersheds • How might the approach be adapted for use in other watersheds?

7. 15 SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. 5X ▲ TN Trends in Nitrogen Loading: Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al. 2011 Ecology letters 4X ▲ TN Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeuret al. 2010

8. Geographic Variation in Sources of Nr Yield kg/ha/yr from Northeast Rivers Plus POTW Point Sources to Estuaries Landside Load to the Estuary NB = 203 kg Nr / ha estuary / yr CB = 270 kg Nr / ha estuary / yr Latimer & Charpentier (2010) Scales of Governance Air rules can benefit the region Local point sources solutions Agriculture solutions neededin some locations Several points to intervene Nr Cascade: Air, Land, & Water

9. RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning project using the GIS analysis and 3 different growth scenarios for 2025. • SCENARIO: Trends • SCENARIO: Composite How would these different future scenarios affect nutrient fluxes , e.g. ▲Nr flux thru the watershed to the Bay? http://www.planning.ri.gov/spp/default.htm

10. RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning project TRENDS Red ▲ = new development Green = protected open space Available from http://www.edc.uri.edu/rigis/data/data.aspx?ISO=planningCadastre Landuse2025.zip

11. RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning project COMPOSIT How do we tie scenarios to ▲ Nitrogen flux ? Communication For Conservation • Conservation for Human Uses: • Air ▲ NOx controls • Land ▲ Comprehensive LU Planning ▲Low Impact Development ▲ Transfer of Development Rights • Water ▲ Point & Nonpoint controls ▲ Wetlands Restoration • Transportation Planning • Conservation of Landscapes & Aesthetics • Consideration of Climate Change

12. 15 SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. 5X ▲ TN Trends in Nitrogen Loading: Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al. 2011 Ecology letters 4X ▲ TN Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeuret al. 2010 19

13. Safe and Sustainable Water ResourcesProgram Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England End Users of knowledge SSWR Signature Project. Geographic focus on Narragansett Bay & Watershed • Informing governance institutions • Knowledge transfer at a range of scales • Other Active Research Efforts informing Decisions in Narragansett Bay: • Federal Agencies (e.g. USGS; EPA OW, OAR,R1; NOAA - CHRP), • Several Environmental Governance Institutions, and Universities (e.g. URI, Brown) • Supported by: lab & field work, monitoring, e.gNERACOOS for use in a variety of models, e.g: CMAQ, SPARROW, SWAT, N-Sink, ESDSS, NLM, FVCOM, ROMs, EcoGEM, EcoOBM, Climate Change, etc. • Decision Support (DS) tools, designed with end-users in mind e.g. for Northeastern lakes. Involves use of SPARROW MRB-1 & DSS Nr & TP • Approach & DS apps. that can be adapted for use in other watersheds. R&D knowledge

14. How can we more effectively inform governance decisions at multiple scales: land management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions ? • SSWR - Signature Project – Talk Outline • Goals • Conceptual framework (for Social-Ecological System) • Key upper level questions, guiding aspects of the research • We need to understand system, to better inform governance decisions • Planned research products and schedule (2012-2017) • Trends (in part based on published literature and historical data) & Scenarios • Communication for conservation (multiple goals) • Need for collaboration (research and management) • Additional Sides (References) QUESTIONS?

16. Social context: Biotic context: Research on complexity in coupled social - ecological systems Press Pulse Dynamics (PPD) framework for social-ecological systems. Collins et al, 2011 Used by National Science Foundation, Long Term Ecological, in relation to their Decadal Plan. LTER DP.

17. Additional Background Slides and Links • Related to ORD http://www.epa.gov/ord/ and research for the 21st century • Safe and Sustainable Water Resources (SSWR) Research Framework • http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm • Nitrogen, a complex 21st century challenge. Reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade • Ecosystem Services • Ecosystem services alterations affected by nitrogen (Compton et al 2011) • Press-Pulse Dynamics (PPD) framework from NSF (Collins et al 2011) • Reactive Nitrogen (Nr) as press, and pulse disturbances • Decision Cycle: ORD Informing decisions about management of Nr Cascade QUESTIONS?

18. Nitrogen research & management, a challenge for 21st century Thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research related to the reactive nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points and benefits? Policy Levers Nr Cascade EPA OAR: NAAQS: PM, O3, NOX, SOX; Title IV EPA OW: National Nutrient Management Strategy TMDLs, Nutrient Criteria RI & MA State Governance Decisions based on a combination of authorities and capacities Municipal Governance Galloway et al. (2003) , Compton et al. (2011) Ecology Letters How can research inform management of Nr sources and sinks?

19. Nitrogen research & management, a challenge for 21st century Thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research related to the reactive nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points and benefits? 15 Trends in nitrogen loading; a national challenge Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al. 2011 Ecology letters Benefits and side effects. Tradeoff decisions informed using Ecological Production Functions (EPFs) 5X ▲ TN 100 Soil fertility for crops Forest growth Northeast US Coastal fish production % of maximum Drinkable water Pristine Lakes Rockies 0 1 10 100 1000 Nitrogen load (kg N ha-1 yr-1)

20. Nitrogen research & management, a challenge for 21st century Thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research related to the reactive nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points and benefits? Stressors/Drivers Social context: Biotic context: Policy Levers: CAA, CWA Tracking Progress Using Collins et al 2011 color scheme Ecosystem Response Functions: ERF’s OAR: National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS): PM, O3, NOX, SOX; Acid Deposition (Title IV) Decisions System Assessment Management Scenarios Ecosystem Condition OW: National Nutrient Management Strategy TMDLs, Nutrient Criteria State Governance Decisions based on a combination of authorities and capacities Municipal Governance ORD Informing Decisions System Response N-Cascade Response System-based Knowledge (integrated models of ERF’s, EPF’s) Economic Values Ecosystem Goods & Services and Human Outcomes

21. Some thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research and management related to the reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points; possible cascading benefits? EPA ORD informing decisions: To carry out the decision cycles efficiently/effectively we need to “know” several things. There are a number of “questions” a research program needs to answer: We need to know the stressors of concern and their loading/exposure What loading/exposure is coming in to the environment that causes harm/impairment? We need to know what the current ecosystem condition is in terms of loading/exposure and impairment What are the tipping points; critical loads; nutrient criteria? Where are the exceedances and how big are they? We need to know how we got to the impairment What are key ecological production functions (ERF’s, EPF’s) underlying impairment? Stressors/Drivers Ecosystem Condition Ecosystem Response

22. Some thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research and management related to the reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points; possible cascading benefits? We need to know how the sources are connected together and where are there feedbacks to create tools for management analysis that will address cross-media effects and uncover unintended consequences What key elements of the N Cascade need to be connected together to provide a full picture of the system, flows and feedbacks and to be able to point out unintended consequences? How do we implement our systems-based knowledge in integrated, multimedia models? We need to know how impairment connects to society What are the ecosystem services provided by the environmental systems? We need to know what the costs and benefits are in common terms How are the ecosystem services valued and incorporated in an assessment framework? We need to know from where the loading/exposure is coming from What are the sources? (source apportionment) System Response N-Cascade Response, System-based Knowledge Ecosystem Goods & Services and Human Outcomes Economic Values

23. Some thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research and management related to the reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points; possible cascading benefits? • We need to be able to compare and contrast different management strategies (tools) and do it simultaneously across media • How do we provide a one-environment, integrated, multimedia scenario capability through modeling tools to address management questions; provide a range of tools? • We need to monitor the effectiveness of the management decisions • How do we design the monitoring of key indicators to provide feedback for adaptive management? • How is our current research portfolio organized relative to these questions. • What are we doing that fits? • What are we missing? • How do we/can we demonstrate this in a few case studies? System Assessment Management Scenarios Tracking Progress