General Economic Update Workforce Development Council February 2010

1. General Economic Update Workforce Development Council February 2010 Bob Uhlenkott, Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor

2. September - 2007 By Dennis Cauchon Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly! • Idaho’s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500. • December 2009 published estimate is 601,100. • Equaling total job of losses over 68,000 since the peak.

4. (9.4%) Oct-1982 to Feb-1983 10 % 9.1 % December 2009 (2.8%) Nov-2006 to May-07

5. December 2007

6. December 2008

7. December 2009

10. Comparing Recessions in Idaho

11. Comparing Recessions in Idaho

16. On pace for recovery projections made in September of 2009 • Modeling an optimistic economic scenario purports year-over-year job increases in the fall of 2010. • However, regaining all the jobs lost in the recent recession is not expected to occur until late 2013 or early 2014. • For industries like construction pre-recession levels are not expected to be reached until the latter half of the next decade.

17. Thanks for your time! Bob Uhlenkott – Chief Research Officer

18. MARCH 5, 2010

19. Idaho’s Long-Term Employment Outlook • Following the current recession employment in Idaho is projected to increase more than 20 percent over the next decade. • If annual job replacements are also taken into account, job openings will rise to more than 30,000 annually.

20. What are HOT Industries? Hot industries are those that on average rank high in three major criteria — the abundance of jobs in the economy, jobs which are growing the fastest and jobs with the highest pay.

21. Idaho’s Hot Industries… 1 Ambulatory Health Care Services Change in Employment: +10,677 Growth Percentage: 42.3% Median Hourly Wage: $15.08 2 Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals Change in Employment: +7,506 Growth Percentage: 27.7% Median Hourly Wage: $18.37 3 Administrative and Support Services Change in Employment: +16,958 Growth Percentage: 43.2% Median Hourly Wage: $12.22 Source: IDOL 2006-2016 Industry Projections.

22. What are HOT Jobs? Hot Jobs are those that on average rank high in three major criteria — the abundance of jobs in the economy, jobs which are growing the fastest and jobs with the highest pay.

23. Idaho’s HOT Jobs… 1 Registered Nurses Change in Employment: +3,617 Growth Percentage: 36.7% Annual Openings: 523 Median Hourly Wage: $25.25 Required Education: Associate Degree 2 Pharmacists Change in Employment: +595 Growth Percentage: 42.9% Annual Openings: 84 Median Hourly Wage: $45.10 Required Education: First Professional Degree Source: IDOL 2006-2016 Occupational Projections.

24. Idaho’s HOT Jobs… 3 Business Operations Specialists, All Other Change in Employment: +1,537 Growth Percentage: 34.4% Annual Openings: 202 Median Hourly Wage: $22.61 Required Education: Bachelor’s Degree 4 Dental Hygienists Change in Employment: +477 Growth Percentage: 50.7% Annual Openings: 66 Median Hourly Wage: $33.70 Required Education: Associate Degree Source: IDOL 2006-2016 Occupational Projections.

25. Factors driving the Healthcare industry and occupational growth #1 Shifting demographic – Aging baby boomers #2 Everyone is living longer – Technology keeps us alive longer #3 With longer lives come health problems #4 Net in-migration made up of many retirees

26. Region 3 – Southwest IdahoLabor Market Information Quick Facts • Comprises of nearly 45% of Statewide employment • Ten of the 44 counties • Per capita income is nearly 17% higher than the rest of the State of Idaho

27. A Comparison of Employment Growth: Statewide vs. Southwest Idaho 2009 data is preliminary

28. How has the current recession affected businesses in the region? Total Number of Employers in Southwest Idaho

29. How has the current recession affected businesses in the region? Total Number of Employers in Southwest Idaho

30. In the 3rd Quarter of 2007 20,637 businesses were operating in Region 3.

31. By the 3rd Quarter of 2008 2,749 of the businesses in operation in 2007 relocated or closed their doors.

32. One year later, another 2,168 of those businesses moved out of the area or ceased operation.

33. Nearly 24% of businesses in Region 3 during the 3rd quarter of 2007 are no longer in operation. 19,097 Total Businesses in the Region 24% Decline 15,720 Businesses still in operation from 2007

34. Claimant Characteristics

35. Number of Claimants by Industry 2006 vs. 2009 - Southwest Idaho

36. Claimant’s Highest Level of Education 2006 vs. 2009 - Southwest Idaho

37. (9.4%) Oct-1982 to Feb-1983 10 % 9.1 % December 2009 (2.8%) Nov-2006 to May-07

38. Customer Profile(Dec. 2009) 110,000 Job Seekers 51,000 – advanced education 37,000 – age 45+ 30,000 – working 5,000 – in school 11,000 – food stamps 9,200 – Veterans 1,800 – homeless

39. Labor Local Offices Are Busy

43. Fringe Benefit Survey

44. What percent of employers offer health insurance to their employees*? *Full Time Employees Only Single Coverage

45. What percent of employers offer health insurance to their employees? What percent of the premium is paid by the employer?? Single Coverage Family Coverage

46. Thanks for your time! Bob Uhlenkott – Chief Research Officer John Van Dyke – Regional Labor Economist.