Report of the Planning Coordination Committee

1. Report of the Planning Coordination Committee December 2006 WECC BOD Meeting Cabo Del Sol, Los Cabos

2. WECC Probabilistic Based Reliability Criteria (PBRC) • Members can apply for adjustment in the performance requirements with respect to the WECC Disturbance Performance Table • WECC BOD approved a Seven Step Process describing the information necessary to request a performance level adjustment (Dec 2004) • Adjustments to Category D performance must not result in cascading unless • Estimated MTBF is greater than 300 years, or • Initiating disturbances and corresponding impacts are confined to either a radial system or a local network. • Four adjustments from level C to level D performance have been approved to date • These have been for circuits that share a common right-of-way for a portion of their length. • NERC treats loss of circuits on separate structures as Category D Extreme Event (TPL-004)

3. Category Upgrade of North Gila 2nd Line • APS proposes to build a second 117 mile 500 kV transmission line in parallel with the existing Hassayampa – North Gila line in the same transmission corridor. • While such a line meets the required level C performance, the voltage dip performance is marginal. • To mitigate the risk of the potential future derates in the event modest system changes, APS selected to apply for a performance category adjustment.

4. Expected System Performance • Double line outage resulted in voltage dip of 29.5% (level C limit is 30%) • With no dips > 20% lasting longer than 40 cycles • No frequency dip violations • MTBF calculation performed using analytic method from Kangley-Echo Lake analysis with outage statistics from Palo Verde-Westwing and Navajo-Westwing corridors. • APS calculated a MTBF of 21 to 2,700 years compared to a PBRC requirement of 33 years. • If the contribution from terminal equipment related outages is omitted, the MTBF rises to 42 years. • Using robust line design features, the performance is expected to be on the high end of the range. • Most design features of the proposed line are the same or nearly identical to Palo Verde – Westwing 500 lines which have been granted a performance adjustment.

5. PCC Recommendation PCC Recommends Board approval of Arizona Public Service Company’s (APS) request for a change from Category C to Category D with no cascading for the North Gila parallel line.

6. Transmission Outage Database • Transmission Reliability Database Task Force (TRDTF) has developed a process and the supporting documentation to annually gather forced outage data on 200 kV and higher transmission facilities • Will facilitate the probabilistic planning the work of RPEWG in assessing performance category upgrades under the PBRC. • The database will allow the RPEWG to monitor facility outage data and recommend changes in the required performance category for individual facilities as necessary. • An annual report on forced outage performance would be generated.

7. Database Implementation • Data would be collected once a year in the first quarter of the year. • Begin data collect data with 2006 and without gathering earlier outage info. • The incremental burden on members to report this information will be modest as most members collect these data in varying formats for their own internal uses. • DOE has indicated its desire to begin collecting transmission outage data as part of its EIA data gathering process. • WECC is participating in the NERC task force formed to address the DOE needs. Will ensure that the WECC data collection is sufficient to meet potential NERC requirements. • To ensure consistency and quality of the information received, the TRDTF has prepared a detailed description for data reporting and will be conduction a workshop. • Confidentiality proposal has been prepared and will be submitted to the Board in April.

8. PCC and OC Recommendation PCC and OC recommend Board approval of the Transmission Reliability Database Task Force recommendation of a process for a WECC-Wide Common Outage Database and to charge WECC staff to collect the data.

9. Other Items Approved By PCC • Loads and Resources Data Confidentiality (Board Consent Agenda) • Generation Testing Model Validation Implementation Plan • Plan to address the backlog generators awaiting their 5 year re-test following the Board approval of the new testing policy

10. Project Advancement in Regional Planning or Path Rating Processes • Initiating Regional Planning or Path Rating Processes • BC to Northern California Transmission Project – PG&E • Path 27 Upgrade – LADWP • Ely Transmission Project - SPPC • Path 51 Redefinition – SRP • Path 46 (East of River) Near Term Rating Increase Progressed through Phase 2 and into Phase 3

11. Information Items – Modeling Improvements • WECC Dynamic Modeling Procedure • Improve the quality of the WECCMaster Dynamic Data File • Assist WECC staff in managing submittals of models • Clarify modeling procedure for WECC members • Improve interaction with program developers • Identify need for new models and improvement to existing models • Identify and report compatibility and conversion issues • Electronic Data Base System (EDBS) • SRWG has evaluated an EDBS to address the remaining unresolved base case data preparation process issues. • Would utilize automated features for data error checks and coordination. • SRWG estimates EDBS may save conservatively 50% or more of the time required to prepare base cases once implemented. • TSS established a Task Force to evaluate the proposal and the possibility for coordination with the West-Wide System Model development • Modeling Workshop (Held in Nov)

12. Loads and Resources • Resource Adequacy Framework White Paper • Surveys the landscape of potential resource adequacy frameworks that could be applied in the Western Interconnection. • Provides background on specific WECC and PCC goals • Summarizes frameworks that are currently in place or proposed by others within the West • Summarizes NERC and other regional council approaches • Discusses frameworks that could be applied by WECC to implement the Board and PCC goals • Identifies implementation challenges and a proposed timetable

13. Resource Adequacy Guideline Development Timeline

14. 2007 Power Supply Assessment and the L&R Data Collection Cycle • PSA development schedule currently begins in the Fall and results in a recommendation to the July Board meeting. • Data collection occurs Nov-Jan • NERC cycles for semiannual supply assessments • Summer assessment information in March • Winter assessment information in September • Current cycles have the NERC summer assessment being issued while the PSA is being developed • PSA issued 4-6 weeks later may not be consistent • Since the PSA is intended to focus primarily on the upcoming season, the LRS is considering the merits of moving the PSA cycle by one quarter later. This would result in the PSA being reviewed by the PCC in October and approved by the Board in December.

15. Questions?

16. Current LRS Work Plan • Capacity Planning Reserve Margin Assessment • More Sophisticated Analysis 2007-8 • Probabilistic Based Assessment 2009 at the earliest • Requires Major Changes To • Methodology • Data Requirement • Models • Will Require Consultants and Additional WECC Staff To Achieve • Qualified and Available Personnel/Consultants May be Hard To Find

17. Accelerated LRS Work Plan • Probabilistic Planning Reserve Margin Assessment • More Sophisticated Analysis 2007 • Probabilistic Based Assessment 2008 At The Earliest • Must have Additional Consultants To Achieve • Issue Is Obtaining Qualified and Available Personnel

18. Current LRS Work Plan – More Detail

19. Current LRS Work Plan – Continued Accelerated Work Plan Would Merge 2008-2010 Into Two Years