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Portugal Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. October, 2003. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is: . An international scientific assessment to be completed in 2004 Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD),

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Portugal Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Portugal millennium ecosystem assessment l.jpg

Portugal Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

October, 2003


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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is:

  • An international scientific assessment to be completed in 2004

    • Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of

      • Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD),

      • Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD),

      • Ramsar Wetlands Convention,

      • other partners including the private sector and civil society

    • Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being

    • Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global)

    • Designed to both provide information and build capacity to provide information

    • Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it successfully meets needs


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  • Stakeholders:

  • Governments

  • Private Sector

  • Civil Society

Assessment

Monitoring

Research

Science Assessment:

  • A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers


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The MA focuses on:

  • Ecosystem services

  • The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being

  • The consequences of changes in ecosystems for other life on earth


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Ecosystem Services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems

Provisioning

Goods produced or provided by ecosystems

• food

• fresh water

• fuel wood

• fiber

• biochemicals

• genetic resources

Cultural

Non-material benefits obtained from ecosystems

• spiritual

• recreational

• aesthetic

• inspirational

• educational

• communal

• symbolic

Regulating

Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes

• climate regulation

• disease regulation

• flood regulation

• detoxification

Supporting

Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services

• Soil formation

• Nutrient cycling

• Primary production


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Climate Change

Climate

Change

Land Cover

Change

Biodiversity

Loss

Nutrient

Loading

Etc.

Energy

Sector

Biodiversity

Food

Supply

Water

Health

Health

Economics

Economics

Social

Social

IPCC

The MA is an Integrated Assessment IPCC looks at impacts of one driver (climate) on different systems; MA will integrate the effects of multiple drivers on all ecosystems

Driver

Ecosystems

Response

Human

Impact

Millennium Assessment


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Conceptual framework


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Sub-Global Assessment Working Group

All of the above… at sub-global scales

Using the Conceptual Framework as a guide, MA Working Groups will try to answer core questions

Conditions and Trends Working Group

  • What is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services?

  • What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being?

Scenarios Working Group

  • Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being?

Responses Working Group

  • What can we do about it?


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Portugal

Trinidade,Vietnam


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The Portuguese Assessment

  • Multi-scale

  • Created to answer to the information needs of local and global MA users

  • Condition and trends of ecosystem services

  • Scenarios for the next 50 years and possible answers

Sistelo

Mondego

Quinta

da França

Herdade da Ribeira Abaixo

Mira


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The Portuguese Assessment users represent different society sectors

National Government

Local Government

NGO

  • CELPA, Paper Industry Association

  • CONFAGRI, National Confederation of Portuguese Agricultural Cooperatives and Credit

  • National park of Peneda-Gerês

  • League for the Protection of Nature

  • Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Fisheries

  • Ministry of Public Works, Transportation and Housing

  • Institute for the Conservation of Nature

  • Water Institute

Private Sector

Others

  • ExtEnSity Project


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Organization

Advisory Board

Isabel Guerra, MOPTH

Helena Freitas, UC

Teresa Ribeiro, AEA

Humberto Rosa, UL

Steering Committee

Henrique Pereira

Tiago Domingos

Luis Vicente

Research Team

Inst. Politécnico Bragança

Univ. Católica

Univ. Coimbra

Univ. Évora

Univ. Lisboa

Univ. Técnica Lisboa

Users

CONFAGRI

CELPA

INAG

ICN

LPN

MADRP

MOPTH

ExtEnSity


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Program

IV Meeting

V Meeting

II Meeting

III Meeting

I Meeting

2003 2003 2004 2004 2005

State of the Assessment

Report

Final Assessment Publication

Final Assessment Review

Users Needs Report

Pilot Assessment


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Users Needs of Information Report

  • General Needs


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Users Needs of Information Report(2)

  • Priority Ecosystems


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Users Needs of Information Report(3)

  • Priority drivers


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Users Needs of Information Report(4)

  • Priority Ecosystem services


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Condition and Trend Analysis

  • Identification of the principal drivers

  • Biodiversity atlas

  • Water production atlas

  • Qualitative analysis of the stock condition and flux of each service

  • Economical analysis of the ecosystem services value

  • Human well-being

  • Responses


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Units of Analysis

  • IFN / MA Classification

    • Forest

    • Agriculture

    • Montado

    • Unsuitable for agriculture

    • Mountain

    • Oceans and Coast

    • Inland Waters

Agriculture

Inland Waters

Forest

Unsuit. Agricult.

Non-cultivated


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Scenarios for the next 50 years

  • The scenarios

    • To consider the possible futures for the unpredictable and ambiguous drivers (as well as for the predictable ones)

      • Emphasize the surprises, not the central trends

    • In accordance with the state of the art of ecological sciences

      • Quantitative and Qualitative

    • Until the year 2030


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Considered drivers


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Technogarden

Local Learning

 ecotourism

 biologic agriculture products

 recycling

 renewable energies

 environmental responsibility

 fire

Global Orchestration

Fortress World

Environmental Friendly Society

 Biodiversity

 Food production

 Water

 Soil protection

 Recreation

 Biodiversity

 Food production

 Water

 Soil protection

 Recreation

Agriculture answer to the markets

Land cultures geography changes

Abandonment / Intensification of foreign immigration

Agricultural enterprises

Fields abandonment

Rural ageing

Bucolic Portugal

Celestial Portugal

PAC

Status Quo

Portugal in its worst

Evolution on the continuity

 Biodiversity

 Food production

 Water

 Soil protection

 Recreation

 Biodiversity

 Food production

 Water

 Soil protection

 Recreation

Doesn’t Care Society

 tourism – Houses on the coast

 fire

Environmental irresponsibility

End of tolls

 mini-hydrics

Not controlled free hunting

Scenarios scratch


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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

First MA Product, published

September 2003


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www.millenniumassessment.org

Visit the MA Website


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