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The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education Recommended Strategy Going Forward

The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education Recommended Strategy Going Forward. A Report to the Board of Governors October 30, 2002 Submitted by Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, P.A. Contact: Dr. Lisa K. Shapiro, Chief Economist www.gcglaw.com 800-528-1181. Overview. Background

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The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education Recommended Strategy Going Forward

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  1. The New Hampshire Forum on Higher EducationRecommended Strategy Going Forward A Report to the Board of Governors October 30, 2002 Submitted by Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, P.A.Contact: Dr. Lisa K. Shapiro, Chief Economist www.gcglaw.com 800-528-1181

  2. Overview • Background • Summary of Recommendations • Challenges of the 21st Century Economy • Forum Strategic Direction • Implementation and Next Steps

  3. Background Background

  4. Background Background Mission Statement The Forum’s mission is to sustain and grow New Hampshire’s prosperity by ensuring a workforce of highly educated and well-trained workers. Vision Statement New Hampshire is a community where more citizens seek to attend and have affordable access to in-state higher education institutions and continuing education opportunities, and where higher education institutions are recognized for responsively meeting the evolving business demand for well-educated and skilled workers, providing NH with a well-prepared workforce with which to sustain its economy.

  5. BackgroundGoals to Achieve Mission and Vision Access & Affordability Citizens Know Importance of Higher Education Necessary Resources Necessary Resources Working Partnerships Between Business/Colleges/Universities Change Attitudes and Behaviors Credible Voice Knowledgeable Board

  6. BackgroundForum Research Data Studies Reports Data Studies Reports Data Studies Reports Data

  7. BackgroundStrategic Direction of the Forum Action 1 Data/Studies Action 2 Data/Studies Action 3 Data/Studies Data/Studies

  8. Summary of Recommendations Summary of Recommendations

  9. Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction for the Forum Summary of Recommendations Forum Strategic Direction • Frame problem as the challenge of the 21st century economy • In this economy, business, education and government must work together more closely to keep pace and stay competitive • The Forum’s strategy is to become the “place” where business, education, and government connect to find new ways to grow, attract and retain knowledgeable workers

  10. Summary of RecommendationsStrategic Direction for the Forum Summary of Recommendations Forum Strategic Direction New High Economy Job Skills Forum Mission Old Low

  11. Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction for the Forum Summary of Recommendations Forum Strategic Direction Accessible & Affordable New Economy Higher Education Forum Mission No Access & Not Affordable Old

  12. Summary of RecommendationsStrategic Direction of the Forum Summary of Recommendations Forum Strategic Direction Power of Partnerships to Grow NH's Economic Success Forum has Necessary Resources Access and Affordability Citizens Know Importance of Higher Education Working Partnerships between Business/Colleges/Universities Change Attitudes and Behaviors Credible Voice Knowledgeable Board Business - Higher Education - Government

  13. Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction Summary of Recommendations Power of Partnerships Programs Policy Promotion

  14. Case StatementInvesting in New Hampshire’s Economic Future Summary of Recommendations Case Statement Investing in New Hampshire’s Economic Future Staying competitive in a quickly changing, global economy requires New Hampshire’s higher education institutions and businesses to collaborate in new and innovative ways. The fastest growing sectors in the new economy require highly trained workers with specialized educational and training needs throughout their changing careers – often outside of the traditional classroom. Working closely together, business and education can respond more effectively and efficiently to New Hampshire’s shifting economic needs in ways that allow more people to access learning and the careers of tomorrow.

  15. Summary of Recommendations Case Statement The Challenge • 7 out of 10 of New Hampshire’s fastest growing jobs over the next 10 years require a post-secondary degree • Demand for college-educated workers is forecasted to outpace supply nationwide • Mobile workforce creates competition for New Hampshire grads • Fast changing economy requires lifelong learning and training creating older, non-traditional student population • New economy jobs require highly specific training • New Hampshire higher education costs outpace inflation • Declining government resources decrease financial aid

  16. Summary of Recommendations Case Statement The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education – comprised of business, education and public policy leaders – is committed to ensuring a workforce of highly educated and well-trained citizens to sustain New Hampshire’s economic prosperity. Because the needs of business, higher education and government are increasingly interconnected, the continued vitality of our evolving economy depends on our ability to anticipate future needs. Whether it’s building awareness, creating access to affordable higher education or specialized workforce training, addressing these needs requires new levels of collaboration in an economy driven by information. The Forum acts as a catalyst to bring together the strengths and assets of educational, business and government entities to facilitate partnerships, share best practices and discover new ways to work together to ensure New Hampshire’s success in the 21st century economy. Together, we can play a positive and important role in sustaining New Hampshire educational advancement and economic growth.

  17. Implementation and Next Steps Summary of Recommendations • Get working partnerships going • Engineering/Science/Technology • Quality Educators • Federal Higher Education Act Reauthorization • Get the Forum message out • Get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda • Get Forum content up to speed

  18. Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Challenges of the 21st Century Economy What is the Economy Like? What works in this Economy? What can the Forum do as a Catalyst?

  19. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyInformation Drives the Economy Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyInformation Drives the Economy Economic Output Per Worker 1997 More Money Less Physical Goods 1977 Less Money More Physical Goods 38% more $Output per worker $19,404 $26,843 23% Less Pounds of Output per Worker 5,300 lbs 4,100 lbs

  20. Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Education Fuels the Economy Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Education Fuels the Economy Growth in Mean Earnings

  21. Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Growth inShare of More Highly Educated Workers Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Growth inShare of More Highly Educated Workers New Hampshire

  22. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyMore Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyMore Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed National Forecast for Workers with College Degrees To Fill New and Replacement Jobs, 2012 18 Million Demand (new graduates needed) 12 Million Supply (current degree trends)

  23. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNew Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNew Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields Nursing • Registered and Practical Nursing graduates peaked in NH in 1995, at over 1,000, but has since declined to 416 • NH is expected to have 599 annual job openings for RNs and LPNs, and another 261 for Nursing Aides • More than half of NH’s practicing nurses were 45 years old or over in 2001 • Just as these nurses are retiring, demand for nursing will increase because of the aging population

  24. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNew Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNew Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields Teaching • NH conferred 1.7% fewer Bachelor’s Degrees in education in 2000 than in 1992; the US conferred 0.1% more • NH has about 17,500 educators today and expects at least 820 annual K-12 job openings • As many as 500-700 teachers are projected to retire annually, and the retirement rate is projected to double in the next 5 years • Since 1999, Alternative Certification has increased by 187, and total annual certification has reached 1,696 • But not all new teachers get jobs in NH, and 67% are not being certified in critical shortage areas, e.g., math, chemistry, special education, and sciences

  25. Challenges of the 21st Century Economy 7 out of 10 Occupations in NH with the Fastest Growth Rates Require an Associate's Degree or More Challenges of the 21st Century Economy 7 out of 10 Occupations in NH with the Fastest Growth Rates Require an Associate's Degree or More

  26. Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Many of the Occupations in NH Adding the Most NewJobs Do Not Require a Post-Secondary Degree • 50%-60% of projected job openings require less than an Associate's Degree 1998-2008

  27. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyBusinesses Need Workers with Special Skill Sets Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyBusinesses Need Workers with Special Skill Sets • While demand for engineers and technology workers is expected to increase over the medium and long-term, the number of degrees conferred has declined, and even more so in NH. There has been nearly a 31% decline in annual degrees conferred in NH for engineers as compared with a 6% decline nationally • Aggregating across all computer sciences and engineer degrees, NH still lagged the U.S. Growth in Bachelor’s Degrees In Computer Sciences and Engineering 1995 to 2000 NH US -2.8% +6.2%

  28. Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Fast Changing Economy Requires FastChanging Education System Because there is a decline in “old, stable” industrial jobs, educational institutions, students, and businesses continue to intersect throughout a person’s lifetime Interaction of Business and Higher Education Old Way New Way Post Secondary Education Businesses Post Secondary Education Businesses

  29. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyAging Population • The aging population will accelerate the number of non-traditional students pursuing post-secondary degrees NH Population Growth Rates: 1990-2000 and 2005-2015

  30. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNon-Traditional Students • On average, college-educated workers have held 4 jobs since graduation, and expect at least one more job change in the future • The percent of adults participating in adult education has increased Percent of Adults Who Participated in Adult Education1 (by age)

  31. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyRegional Migration Net Population Change By Region (1990 to 2000 - millions of people) Net Population Change For Northeast States (1990 to 2000 - thousands of people)

  32. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyImmigration

  33. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNew Hampshire Migration • The trend of positive net-migration into NH continued through 2001 NH Migration, Top States and Total 1995 - 2001

  34. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNew Hampshire Migration • Net migration from MA into NH may slow in the future, as the number of people aged 25-64 years will only grow 3% (2005-2015), down from 9% (1990-2000) • MA is still expected to lose 815,000 people by 2025, one of the largest losses in the country

  35. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNew Hampshire Post-Secondary Performance • NH has one of the lowest high school completion rates in New England, but has an average rank when compared nationally • NH does a better job at sending its high school freshmen to go on to college High School to College Rate 2002

  36. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyPost-Secondary Education in New Hampshire • NH growth in post-secondary degrees per capita has been below the national average Growth in Degrees Per Capita Conferred 1990 to 2000

  37. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyPost-Secondary Education in New Hampshire • But NH produces a large number of graduates per capita Degrees Conferred Per 1,000 Population YR 2000 • And is among the top 5 states with a high percentage of college freshmen from outside of the state

  38. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyNew Hampshire College Student Migration • NH ranks second in the nation for in-state residents who attend college out-of-state By State of Residence Fall 2000

  39. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyMobility Creates Competition for Graduates Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyMobility Creates Competition for Graduates Percent of People Nationally Who Move Out of State (by education level) 45% 37% 19% High School Degree College Degree Advanced Degree

  40. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyCollege Student Migration Patterns • The top 4 reasons why NH high school graduates do not attend USNH: • Major not offered • They want to experience a different environment • Better academic reputation • Not the right location • College graduates migrate to states with: • Higher job growth • Lower unemployment • Higher pay • Lower housing costs • Better amenities • Price-quality issues

  41. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyMigration Patterns Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyMigration Patterns • Nationally, 81% of students who graduate from home state institutions live in their home state after four years, compared to only 52% of those who go out-of-state for their post-secondary education • A 2002 point-in-time query from a NH data base found that 78% of NH students attending NH post-secondary schools remain in NH during the first few years after graduating. after a small decline, this number increases to 91% returning within 16 years after graduation • The query also found that 56% of NH students attending non-NH post-secondary schools returned to NH shortly after graduating; this number steadily increased to 88% returning within 16 years after graduation

  42. Challenges of the 21st CenturyEconomy Higher Education Costs Increasing • Nationally, over the last two decades, the cost of attending public and private colleges has grown more rapidly than inflation and faster than family income • In NH, tuition and fees at public four-year colleges and universities increased by 52% over the last decade – the biggest increase in New England - to the highest costs: $5,557 • The median family income in NH over the same decade increased by 19% • NH’s tuition and fees at private four-year institutions increased by 17%, to $18,105, which is about average for New England

  43. Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyGovernment Resources are Declining Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyGovernment Resources are Declining • Recession created State budget deficits • Uncertain, subdued recovery • Fiscal conservatism

  44. Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Traditional Relationships Disappearing Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Traditional Relationships Disappearing Mobility Rapid Change Lack of Community Life as Byte-Sized Pieces

  45. Challenges of the 21st Century Economy New Economy Requires New Types of Relationships Challenges of the 21st Century Economy New Economy Requires New Types of Relationships • Listserv, for people with common interests • eBay, for buyers and sellers • Just-in-time inventory management, for businesses • Distance learning, for students and workers • On-line licensing, for government

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