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UPDATE ON TAMDAR IMPACT ON RUC FORECASTS & RECENT TAMDAR/RAOB COMPARISONS

UPDATE ON TAMDAR IMPACT ON RUC FORECASTS & RECENT TAMDAR/RAOB COMPARISONS. Ed Szoke,* Brian Jamison*, Bill Moninger, Stan Benjamin, Randy Collander*, and Tracy Smith* NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division

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UPDATE ON TAMDAR IMPACT ON RUC FORECASTS & RECENT TAMDAR/RAOB COMPARISONS

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  1. UPDATE ON TAMDAR IMPACT ON RUC FORECASTS & RECENT TAMDAR/RAOB COMPARISONS Ed Szoke,* Brian Jamison*, Bill Moninger, Stan Benjamin, Randy Collander*, and Tracy Smith* NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division *Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

  2. Using the high-resolution TAMDAR data available since 30 Mar 06... Examine impact on RUC forecasts Subjective evaluation concentrating on short-range precipitation forecasts Focus on 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts ending at 0000 and 0600 UTC (but other fields also examined) For 1800 UTC runs compare forecast soundings with observed soundings Models used: identical RUC-20 km runs with and without TAMDAR Compare TAMDAR sounding quality and detail TAMDAR soundings compared to each other TAMDAR soundings compared to nearby RAOBs Emphasis on the kinds of sharp structures that can be resolved with the higher resolution TAMDAR data Outline

  3. 30 Mar 2100 UTC: Deepening storm with severe weather & ND snow System is at north/west edge of TAMDAR to within network (in WI/IL). In ND rain changing to snow. Will examine precipitation fields and CAPE and helicity.

  4. Display of the TAMDAR coverage from 2100 UTC 30 Mar to 0000 UTC 31 Mar

  5. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 0000 UTC 31 Mar 06 – Minneapolis Good overall agreement with the sounding and all TAMDARs nicely resolve the dry layer centered at 800 mb

  6. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 0000 UTC 31 Mar 06 – Minneapolis The most variability in this set is from the flight heading off to the southeast.

  7. AMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 0000 UTC 31 Mar 06 – Minneapolis For comparison to TAMDAR, here are a few AMDAR temperature profiles compared to the MSP RAOB

  8. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 0000 UTC 31 Mar 06 – Peoria, Illinois Here we do see a difference between the ascent and descent soundings (that track in pretty much the same location and not far off in time), with a better match to the RAOB for the TAMDAR ascent.

  9. 7 April 0000 UTC: Deepening storm with severe weather & R+ High risk severe wx day NE to eastern KS. Also heavy rains in band e-w across MSP. Will examine precipitation fields and CAPE and helicity.

  10. Comparison of 6-h RUC precipitation forecasts with and without TAMDAR for runs initialized at 1800 UTC on 6 April 06. Without TAMDAR With TAMDAR >0.10” >0.25” >0.5” >1.0” Two main differences are highlighted: 1) In MN/nrn IA with more precip in TAMDAR run 2) More of a line of precip in eastern NE in the TAMDAR run

  11. Observed 6h precipitation ending 0000 UTC 7 April 06 TAMDAR run looks better for having more precip near MSP. Similarly, in eastern KS more precip in the TAMDAR run is also better.

  12. Comparison of 6-h RUC CAPE and CIN forecasts with and without TAMDAR for runs initialized at 1800 UTC on 6 April 06. Without TAMDAR With TAMDAR Not a lot of differences in the CAPE fields although more CIN across IL in the TAMDAR run.

  13. Analyzed CAPE from the NAM valid 0000 UTC 7 April 06

  14. Comparison of 6-h RUC Helicity forecasts with and without TAMDAR for runs initialized at 1800 UTC on 6 April 06. Without TAMDAR With TAMDAR A few differences are seen (northern IA, eastern KY). Analysis (next) perhaps favors TAMDAR run slightly....

  15. Analyzed SREH from the NAM valid 0000 UTC 7 April 06

  16. 6 April 1800 UTC: Storm intensifying with severe weather developing Next we'll examine some TAMDAR/ RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC and for the special soundings launched at 1800 UTC for MSP and LZK (Little Rock, AR).

  17. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Minneapolis Good agreement between the two descent TAMDARs

  18. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Minneapolis Same with this set

  19. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Minneapolis Also good agreement with a descent/ascent pair.

  20. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Minneapolis The main disagreement is found for the 2 TAMDARs heading south, but note these are ~80 min apart in time.

  21. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for Minneapolis: time series Nice depiction of the effect of sustained lift on the strong inversion centered near 850 mb.

  22. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Little Rock/Nashville Good overall agreement with the sounding and all TAMDARs.

  23. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1800 UTC 6 April 06 – Little Rock/Nashville Note how well the sharp inversion is resolved near 900 mb, and the very sharp dry layer above this.

  24. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Little Rock/Nashville Similar good resolution with this set of soundings a little while later.

  25. TAMDAR coverage for 1500-1800 UTC 6 April 06 Coverage doesn't go quite to Little Rock but is close.

  26. The next day: 7 April 2100 UTC - Severe weather moves into eastern/southern part of TAMDAR network Another high risk day, this time shifted east to western TN/KY. By 2100 UTC 4 tornado watch boxes were already in place.

  27. Southern TAMDAR coverage for 7 April 06 BNA Little Rock Jackson

  28. Comparison of 6-h RUC precipitation forecasts with and without TAMDAR for runs initialized at 1800 UTC on 7 April 06. With TAMDAR Without TAMDAR >0.10” >0.25” >0.5” >1.0” More precipitation is produced by the run with TAMDAR across southern IN into OH. The run without TAMDAR has more precip in nw AL.

  29. Observed 6h precipitation ending 0000 UTC 8 April 06 TAMDAR run looks better for having more precip in IN/OH

  30. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 7 Apr 06 – Jackson, MS Sharp dry layer above the inversion is really captured well.

  31. TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for ~1500-1800 UTC 7 Apr 06 – Jackson, MS Sharp moisture changes between 700 to 750 mb are shown in special RAOBs and TAMDARs. Also, good agreement with the moisture profile down low.

  32. TAMDAR time series for Memphis leading up to initial tornadoes Nice time series showing both the removal of the early morning cap near 850 mb and then the development of a much more moist and unstable layer in the lowest 100 mb.

  33. RUC forecasts with and without TAMDAR showed some differences Generally did not find cases as dramatic as those shown at AMS But the differences that were found usually favored the TAMDAR runs For other cases recently (not shown) differences were minor Sounding comparisons... Showed 3 different strong severe weather days Overall consistency between TAMDAR soundings is fairly good Higher resolution data is able to nicely capture very sharp moist/dry layers TAMDAR soundings continue to show value for forecast applications Nice Memphis time series leading up to the initial TN tornadoes last Friday Summary

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