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Future AIM modeling ~Focused on global and regional assessment tools~

Future AIM modeling ~Focused on global and regional assessment tools~. Yuzuru Matsuoka The 13th AIM International Workshop 17, February 2008 At Conference Room in Climate Change Research Hall (Not Ohyama Memorial Hall) National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305-8506,Tsukuba, Japan.

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Future AIM modeling ~Focused on global and regional assessment tools~

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  1. Future AIM modeling~Focused on global and regional assessment tools~ Yuzuru Matsuoka The 13th AIM International Workshop 17, February 2008 At Conference Room in Climate Change Research Hall (Not Ohyama Memorial Hall) National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305-8506,Tsukuba, Japan Future direction of AIM, 2008

  2. Focused points More realistic and comprehensive modeling • Impact[Policy] • Climate feedback and economic uncertainties :Implication on 50% reduction of world GHG emission • Enduse[global] Inclusion of urbanization effects, household energy transition, and spatial emission distributionRelative health impacts of environmental factors • Developing more consistent database for global economy and environmental modeling • More comprehensive modeling for LCS studyLinkage of ESS,BCM, and Element modelsExtension of ESS for long-term regional environment study Future direction of AIM, 2008

  3. AIM/Impact[Policy] • - Global and Long-term climate-economic-energy integrated model • multi-regions (< 10), year 2000 to year 2200 • Dynamic global model consisted with;Dynamic economic CGE module maximizing social utility+ Simplified climate module (global surface energy balance model)+ Carbon cycle module with feedback mechanism+ Simplified chemical reaction module+ Climate impact module • Gases : CO2, CH4, N2O, BC, SO2, and F gases • Now refining: 1)to multi-regional, 2) inclusion of climate feedback mechanism, 3) systematic and organized methodology of impact assessment. •  Future direction of AIM, 2008

  4. Including climate feedbacks Calibration 3：ＣＯ２concentration C4MIP (Friedlingstein et al.,2997), Plattneret al.(2007), WG1-7(2007) C4MIP (Friedlingstein et al.,2007), Plattneret al.(2007), WG1-7(2007) Productivity and heterogeneous respiration: HRBM/CTBM/FBM/4box biosphere (Meyer et al. 1999) Calibration１：Vegetation carbon absorption Carbon Cycle model Atmospheric carbon balance model(M1.1) Historical emissions GHG NO2,CO,NMVOC SO2, Halocarbon Vegetation FB coefficient Vegetation absorption Vegetation carbon model(M1.2) Calibration1 Oceanic carbon model(M1.3) Ocean FB coefficient Oceanic absorption Calibration2 HILDA (Joos et al., 1996) Calibration 2： Oceanic carbon absorption Chemistry model（non-CO2,M2.1) Calibration 4：Atmospheric non-CO２ concentration Joos et al. (2001), Eickhout et al.(2004) Chemistry model（TOZ,OH)(M2.2) Historical concentration Decay coefficients Atmospheric concentration Calibration 3,4 Radiative forcing in year 2000（IPCC WG1) GHG concentration - RF model(M3.1) Calibration 5：Radiative Forcing CH4 concentration→SH2O Calibration 5 Joos et al. (2001), Eickhout et al.(2004) Historical radiative forcing VOL, SOL, LAN ＳＯ２emission→DSU,ISU、 CFC and HC emission→ＳＯＺ CO emission→OC,BC Emissions of RF related chemicals-RF model（DSU,ISU,OC,BCS, OZ,SH2O)(M3.2) ＡＦ coefficient Radiative Forcing GHG: greenhouse gases DSU: direct effect of tropospheric sulfates ISU: indirect effect of tropospheric sulfates VOL: volcanic stratospheric aerosols SOL: solar irradiance BCA: black carbon TOZ: tropospheric ozone SOZ: stratospheric ozone IRF: impulse response function UPDM: upwell-diffusion model AF coefficient: Aerosol forcing coefficient FB:feedback LAN: landuse Global temperature model （IRF/UPDM)(M4) Historical global temperature change Climate sensitivity Global temperature Calibration 6 Calibration ６：Global temperature change Future direction of AIM, 2008

  5. Effects of 50% GHG emission reduction in year 2050 on long-term temperature change Future direction of AIM, 2008

  6. Impacts of carbon cycle feedbacks on CO2 emission paths 2.3 GtC/ppm (median) 96 GtC/℃ (median) 50% reduction in 2050 36% reduction in 2050 Sensitivities of carbon cycle in the C4MIP models Future direction of AIM, 2008

  7. Probability of temperature target compliance and emission reduction rate in year 2050 Future direction of AIM, 2008

  8. Countries' reduction rates for world 50% emission reduction in year 2050 Future direction of AIM, 2008

  9. Relation of reduction rates between different sharing schemes Future direction of AIM, 2008

  10. AIM/Enduse[Global] • - Regional bottom-up type model • 23 regions (same as AIM/Global[CGE]), year 2000 to year 2050 • - Regional energy enduse module coupled with • Regional energy resource moduleInternational energy, basic materials balance module • Regional macro-economy and energy service demand module • - Emission sectors (activities) • Industrial, residential and commercial, transport, agriculture, non-agricultural non CO2 emission sectors, F gases • Systematic reconciliation of base year information among stocks of energy devices, energy efficiency, energy services, and energy consumption • Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, BC, OC, SO2, and F gases • Compatibility with national AIM enduse modeling activity using same methodology and classification of energy/device/service •  Future direction of AIM, 2008

  11. AIM/Enduse[Global] Key modeling issue 1 Key modeling issue 2 Key modeling issue 3 Database transportation cost and trade barrier Database World Trade • Macro-economy module • Econometric production-side model coupled with detailed module of energy and material service demand generation mechanism • Trade module • Oil, Gas, Coal, Energy biomass • Iron and Steel, • Chemical products • Wood and wood products • Crop and diary products • Modules of material demand generation and its reduction mechanism • Iron and Steel, • Chemical products • Wood and wood products • Crop and diary products Trades of Energy, BMs and Food 23 regions Trade Balance Module of Energy, Materials and Food World energy and BM price Production and extraction amount of energy Key modeling issue 4 Regional macro-economy and energy service demand module Modeling of residential energy transition Dynamism among Electrification, household fuel choice and poverty Regional energy production and supply module Energy demand and Supply Energy service demand and energy price Regional technology bottom-up module Energy transformation sector Resources-Cost database Key modeling issue 5 Final energy demand • Regional reality of modeling • Spatial migration of emission activity • Building and household dynamics Energy price and emission coefficient Technology Database Industrial sector Residential and commercial sector Transport sector agriculture sector Non-agriculture CH4・N2O emission sector F gases emission sector Key modeling issue 6 • Modeling of ancillary benefit and neighboring policy effects • Regional air quality management • Other environmental policy Future direction of AIM, 2008

  12. Regional reality of Modeling: Population distribution and its relationship with CO2 emission activity( from county level information of year 2000 China population census) Types of industrial activities are strongly correlated with population distribution Household size is strongly correlated with population distribution House size is also strongly correlated with population distribution People migrates toward more dense populated region Future direction of AIM, 2008

  13. Modeling of energy transition: Household energy transition in urban area(from ESMAP household energy surveys, from 1984-2002) Stage 1: Utilization of Biomass fuels Transition :historical inevitability? Stage 2a: Utilization of Transition fuels, High Charcoal use Stage 2b: Utilization of Transition fuels, High Coal or Kerosene use Stage 2c: Utilization of Transition fuels, Diversified Transition fuel use Stage 3: Transition to LPG and Electricity Future direction of AIM, 2008

  14. Modeling of ancillary benefit and neighboring policy effects : Health risks attributed to environmental factors year 2000 situation ( estimated by WHO method) Excess mortality attributed to 1) Unsafe water and insufficient sanitation 2) Indoor air pollution 3) Urban air pollution, and 4) Climate change Direct effects of heat and cold →Cardiovascular disease Foodborne and waterborne diseases→Diarrhoea Vector-borne diseases→Malaria Future direction of AIM, 2008

  15. B2 scenario keeping current investments for next 30 years 1) Unsafe water and insufficient sanitation : decrease 10-20%, far from eradication 2) Indoor and urban air pollution : 40-70% increase mainly caused by population and emission increase 3) Climate change : 50-90% increase caused by the escalation of climate change Future direction of AIM, 2008

  16. B2+550ppm Scenario Doubling of regional Investment/GDP ratio for next 30 years Excess mortality attributed to 1) Unsafe water and insufficient sanitation 2) Indoor air pollution 3) Urban air pollution, and 4) Climate change 1) Unsafe water and insufficient sanitation : nearly eradicated 2) Indoor and urban air pollution : 50% decrease 3) Climate change : intensive adaptation suppresses increase by 10-40% Future direction of AIM, 2008

  17. LPSs by electricity generation (Coal) LPSs by electricity generation (Oil) LPSs by electricity generation (Gas) LPSs by Steel Production LPSs by Cement Production Regional reality of modeling :Large point sources of CO2 SO2 and NOx emission in 2000 Future direction of AIM, 2008

  18. Demonstrating low carbon & sustainable societies • Designing roadmaps toward them GAMMA (Global Accounting table for Money and Material ) AIM global modeling activity GAMMAF (Flow Account) SupplementalActivity Information GAMMAS (Stock Account) CGE [Global] Enduse [Global] Econometric [Global] Material [Global] PIOT (Physical IO Table) SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) Price Supporting database of AIM modeling activity Reconciliation: 1) Outliers’ elimination, 2) Flow balancing, 3) Value and volume adjusting, 4) Dynamic adjustment Monetary Flow Commodity Price Service Price Wage Energy Basic Material Population Labor Transportation Floor Area Energy Land Use Water More consistent database for global economy and environmental modeling Future direction of AIM, 2008

  19. GAMMA (Global Accounting table for Money and MAterial) GAMMAF (Flow Account) SupplementalActivity Information GAMMAS (Stock Account) Reconciliation: 1) Outliers’ elimination, 2) Flow balancing, 3) Value and volume adjusting, 4) Dynamic adjustment PIOT (Physical IO Table) SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) Price Supporting database of AIM modeling activity Monetary Flow Commodity Price Service Price Wage Energy Basic Material Population Labor Transportation Floor Area Energy Land Use Water Compiler Compiler Compiler Compiler • Period: 1970 – latest • Regionalization: 153 countries and regions ( covers more than 99% of global GDP) • Reconciliation methodology: Flow balancing, cross-sectional and temporal aggregation constrains Future direction of AIM, 2008

  20. More comprehensive modeling for LCS study: Two stages and three model groups of LCS’s study: • Stage 1: Design of a Low Carbon Society • Creation of narrative storylines of future Low • Carbon Societies • Description of sector-wise details of the future • LCSs. • Quantification of the Macro economic and social • aspects of the LCSs. • Identification of effective policy measures and packaging them Group 1: Element models; 1) Snapshot models; - Quasi steady Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model - Energy technology bottom-up models - Energy supply model - Household production/lifestyle model - Transportation demand model 2) Transition models; - Population and household model - Building dynamics model - Econometric type macro-economy model • Stage two : Putting them together and making it happen • Design of policy roadmaps toward the Low • Carbon Society • Feasibility analysis of the roadmaps • considering uncertainties involved in each • policy option • Analysis of robustness of the roadmap caused by societal, economical and institutional acceptability and uncertainties Group 2: Extended Snapshot Tool (ESS) Group 3: Backcasting Model for transient control (BCM) Future direction of AIM, 2008

  21. Extended SnapShot (ESS) Passenger transportation model Building model AIM/enduse model Freight transportation model Population and household model Passenger Transportation Demographic and time budget scenarios Residential Service Residential Building Population Commercial Service Commercial Building Changes of Input and import coefficient Energy consumption Aggregated energy and emission calculation in final sectors Energy supply Freight Transportation Time budget Input/Output model Labor Aggregated energy and emission calculation in final sectors Employment coefficient Industrial production Sectoral final demand Final demand converter Food production Macro-economy model AIM/econometric, AIM/Material GHG emissions Total energy consumption Other environmental load generation MSW/ISW Forest • SITUATION • Excel and GAMS versions were prepared • Developing multi-regional version • Linking with element models • APPLICATION • Japan 2050 LCS study • Shiga 2030 Sustainable Society study • Kyoto 2030 LCS study • Iskandar Sustainable Society study • REMAINING AND REQUIRED IMPROVEMENT • Linking with BCM • Friendly interface and good operationality • Systematic extension to other environmental loads Future direction of AIM, 2008

  22. Element models • Macro-economy model • Population and household model • Building model • Passenger transportation model • Freight transportation model • Energy supply model • Material stock dynamics model • Energy enduse models Supply transient and dynamic parameters based on more physically realistic mechanisms Supply target vision quantitatively Supply social, physical parameters based on more physically realistic mechanisms Backcasting Model (BCM) Design roadmaps toward future visions Extended Snapshot Tool (ESS) Check and analyze quantitative consistency of future societies Check and verify the future visions and transient paths from the points of economic reality Sequential CGE type model such as AIM/ material Supply values of parameters based on more physically realistic mechanisms Linkage among ESS, BCM, and Element models We have completed most of element models, ESS and the 1st version of BCM. Now preparing the operational version of BCM and also material stock model. After completing them, we will assemble them to one Integrated Model for Sustainable Society. Future direction of AIM, 2008

  23. Ratio of investment from outside of the region Fate of non-basic local industry Investment Internal market Industry Offshore procurement • Retail • Convenience goods • Shopping goods • Specialty goods Remaining ratio of value-add within the region Offshore procurement Purchase Job creation Regional People Local procurement Ratio of local product consumption Local government Job creation Tax Agriculture Agriculture Key factors for regional economy considered in ESS Service industry Service industry Manufacturing industry Manufacturing industry Public service Local procurement Investment Offshore market Industry Public projects GHG emission activity Export Local procurement Offshore procurement Investment Investment Economic activity Fate of basic export industry Working outside of region Outside of region Money flow Material and service flow Job creation More comprehensive model for regional LCS study: Key modeling parameters in regional ESS from a view point of regional development Future direction of AIM, 2008

  24. AIM model family, FY2008 →Dr.Masui →Dr.Ashina →Mｓ.Kawase →Mr.Hibino Mr.Gomi →Dr.Hanaoka Dr.Kanamori Mr.Akashi →Dr.Hijioka Future direction of AIM, 2008

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