1 / 16

Statewide Land-Use Allocation Model for Florida

Statewide Land-Use Allocation Model for Florida. Stephen Lawe, John Lobb & Kevin Hathaway Resource Systems Group. Presentation Outline. 1. Land Use Allocation Model (LUAM) Implementation & Overview 2. Data on Land Use Patterns Challenges of Estimation 3. Model Structure & Calibration

lsalinas
Download Presentation

Statewide Land-Use Allocation Model for Florida

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Statewide Land-Use Allocation Model for Florida Stephen Lawe, John Lobb & Kevin HathawayResource Systems Group

  2. Presentation Outline 1. Land Use Allocation Model (LUAM) • Implementation & Overview 2. Data on Land Use Patterns • Challenges of Estimation 3. Model Structure & Calibration 4. Results - Sensitivity to Accessibility

  3. LUAM Process – Turnpike Integrated Model Structure Land Use Allocation Model (LUAM) Described in this presentation 5-year lag Auto Trip Table Truck Trip Table As described in a presentation by Songer, et al. on Wednesday and Adler, et al. on Thursday Auto Toll-Free Trips Truck Toll Trips Truck Toll-Free Trips Auto Toll Trips Network Volumes and Travel Times

  4. Written in C++ and integrated with transportation models: Currently integrated into Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise State Model Built to integrate into MPO models Allocates housing and employment growth at TAZ-level Growth total inputs at user-defined geography State, County, MPO, other. LUAM Model runs in 2-4 minutes LUAM Process – Model Fundamentals St Petersburg

  5. LUAM Process – Model Development Plan • Goal: Incremental improvements while always having a model that supports analysis • 4-step process • Estimate and calibrate model using aggregate town & county trends • Re-estimate statewide model with parcel-level data from selected counties • Complete statewide model estimation with parcel-level data for all counties in state • Continue to refine input data and policy control hooks

  6. Legal & Physical Constraints Florida - Calibrated Parameters Generate Travel Impedance Matrix Land Use Data – Overview of Process Total Land Available Base Year Zonal Land Use • Households • Employment Determine Remaining Developable Land Accessibility and Overall Attractiveness Future Growth Increment Allocate new Increment of Land Use • Households • Employment TAZ Land Use Forecasts Forecasting Analysis Procedures • Households • Employment 5 Year Dynamic Land Use Lag

  7. Land Use Data – Development History (parcel level) Fort Myers Cape Coral

  8. Land Use Data – Lumpy by Year

  9. Land Use Data – Spatial Variability (parcel variability)

  10. Land Use Data – Urban Growth Boundaries (legal constraints)

  11. Model Structure – Parameters of Model

  12. ἀ + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk e Pij = Pr(Yij = 1 | Xij) = ἀ + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk 1 + e 2. How many houses & emp. will build on the consumed land? Tobit Model Estimates: Densityij = amount of land use j in TAZ i Densityij = β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk + ε Model Structure – Two Stage Logit / Linear 1. What percent of the available land is consumed? Logit Model Estimates: Pij = Probability of TAZ i, land use j, being developed

  13. Model Structure – Calibration Results (Residential Growth 1980 - 2005) Observed Growth Modeled Growth Pearson’s Correlation TAZ= .58 ZIP = .81

  14. Statewide Application – 2015 households • Run model and look for outliers • Run without controlling and compare to county control totals • Correlation of .93 with 2015 medium BEBR growth totals • Bureau of Economic and Business Research

  15. Model Sensitivity Test - Accessibility • Approximate Population to Employment Ratio • Cape Coral: 3 pop to 1 emp • Fort Myers: 1 pop to 2 emp • Doubling of bridge capacity during 1990s • Large subsequent observed increase in development in Cape Coral • Population increase by 75% between ’95 – ’05 • Twice the rate of growth in ’80s and ’90s • Modeled removal of new bridge capacity • Population increase by 55% between ’95 – ’05 (as compared to 75% with the bridges)

  16. Summary and Conclusions • FL TSM v1 completed in 2006, has been used for major planning applications (Doherty, Fennessy & Songer, Wednesday presentation – Session 17) • Land-use model built on a high-quality, maintained statewide GIS database • Simplified initial model structure supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues • Work is continuing on estimating one set of land-use models for the State • Statewide Land Use Model creates growth forecasts in a consistent manner which is important to the Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise

More Related