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Chapter Two APPLYING SCIENTIFIC THINKING TO MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS. Outline. Style of Thinking Sources of Knowledge The Thought Process : Reasoning Deduction, Induction, Combining D&I, Reflective Thought and the Scientific Method The Scientific Attitude

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outline
Outline
  • Style of Thinking

Sources of Knowledge

  • The Thought Process : Reasoning

Deduction, Induction, Combining D&I, Reflective Thought and the Scientific Method

  • The Scientific Attitude
  • Understanding Theory : Components and Connections

Concepts, Constructs, Definitions, Variables, Propositions and Hypotheses, Theory, Models

empiricism
Empiricism(觀察實驗主義 實證主義)
  • To denote observations and propositions based on sense experience and/or derived from such experience by methods of inductive logic, including mathematics and statistics.
  • Empiricists attempt to describe, explain, and make predictions by relying on information gained through observation.
idealism
Idealism(理想主義 唯心論)
  • 表現完美的境界而不問是否與現實相符.
  • 多數的文學作品傾向於此
  • 每個人或多或少都有此傾向
rationalism
Rationalism(理性主義)
  • the belief that all knowledge can be deduced from known laws or basic truths of nature
  • From the time of Sir Francis Bacon to the present, adherents of rationalism have maintained that problems are best understood and resolved through formal logic or mathematics. Such efforts, of course, operate independently of observation and data collection
existentialism
Existentialism(存在主義)
  • 存在主義是西方哲學理性主義的反動,傳統理性主義認為人 有本質,以亞理士多德為代表,本質就是理性,人都要趨向這本質。即是有一個模型先存在, 人都要依照這模型方式做人。這是所謂「本質先於存在」。存在主義就是反對這種定義了人的 方式,認為人的本質不是預先定好的,人是自由的,人的本質是要自己創造的。你如何存在, 這存在便是你的本質,才是人的本質。因此說「存在先於本質」。
  • 尼采 沙特 等
sources of knowledge
Sources of Knowledge
  • Empiricists attempt to describe, explain, and make predictions through observation
  • Rationalists believe all knowledge can be deduced from known laws or basic truths of nature
  • Authorities serve as important sources of knowledge, but should be judged on integrity and willingness to present a balanced case
styles of thinking
Styles of Thinking
  • Untested opinion

“That’s the way we’ve always done it here”

Historically, myth, superstition, and hunch have been serious competitors for scientific thinking

  • Self-evident truth

“Everyone drives on the right side of the world”

“Women make inferior managers.”

“Men of noble birth are natural leaders.”

“Red-Light Traffic Sign”

styles of thinking1
Styles of Thinking
  • Method of Authority

Authorities serve as important sources of knowledge, but should be judged on integrity and willingness to present a balanced case.

Too often authority may depend on status or position rather on true expertise

  • Literary Style

The literary style of thinking is used in many classic case studies in the social science.

Because it is difficult to generalize from individual case studies, the literary style of thought restricts our ability to derive generally applicable knowledge or truths.

styles of thinking2
Styles of Thinking
  • Scientific Method

“Current scientific methods wed the best aspects of the logic of rational approach with the observational aspects of the empirical orientation into a cohesive, systematic perspective.”

  • Postulational Style

Some studies in OR and marketing are often postulational.

For example, many firms run computer simulations of their market before a product rollout. (Exhibit 2-1)

the essential tenets of science
The Essential Tenets of Science
  • Direct observation of phenomena
  • Clearly defined variables, methods, and procedures
  • Empirically testable hypotheses
  • Ability to rule out rival hypotheses
  • Statistical justification of conclusions
  • Self-correcting process
the thought process reasoning ways to communicate
The Thought Process: ReasoningWays to Communicate
  • Exposition
    • descriptive statements that merely state and do not give reason
  • Argument
    • allows us to explain, interpret, defend, challenge, and explore meaning

Two types of argument of great importance to research are deduction and induction.

important arguments in research
Important Arguments in Research
  • Deduction is a form of inference that purports to be conclusive – the conclusion must necessarily follow from the reasons given.
  • Induction draws conclusions from one or more particular facts or pieces of evidence. The conclusion explains the facts, and the facts support the conclusions.
important arguments in research1
Important Arguments in Research
  • Deduction is the process by which we arrive at a reasoned conclusion by logically generalizing from a known fact.
  • Induction is a process where we observe certain phenomena and on this basis arrive at conclusions. In other words, in induction we logically establish a general proposition based on observed facts.

“The nature of induction, however, is that the conclusion is only a hypothesis.”

deduction
Deduction (演繹)
  • (P1) All regular employees can be trusted not to steal.
  • (P2) John is a regular employee.
  • (C) John can be trusted not to steal.
  • (P1) Inner-city household interviewing is especially difficult and expensive.
  • (P2) This survey involves substantial inner-city household interviewing.
  • (C) The interviewing in this survey will be especially difficult and expensive.
induction
Induction (歸納)
  • “Light bulb burns out” case
  • To induce is to draw a conclusion from one or more particular facts or pieces of evidence.
  • The conclusion explains the facts, and the facts support the conclusion.
  • The nature of induction, however, is that the conclusion is only a hypothesis.
  • It is one explanation, but there are others that fit the facts just as well.
induction1
Induction (歸納)
  • Fact: “Sales did not increase during or after the promotional campaign.”
  • Ask: “Why didn’t sales increase ?”
  • One likely conclusion (by experience): “The promotional campaign was poorly executed.”
  • Others: “Regional retailers did not have sufficient stock”, “A strike by the employees of our trucking firm”, “Hurricane (or typhoon)”.
induction2
Induction (歸納)
  • The inductive conclusion is an inferential jump beyond the evidence presented.
  • One conclusion explains the fact, other conclusions also can explain the fact.
  • It may even be that none of the conclusions we advanced correctly explain the fact.
combined deduction and induction
Combined deduction and induction
  • “double movement of reflective thought”
  • Exhibit 2-2
  • Exhibit 2-3
reflective thought and the scientific method
Reflective Thought and the Scientific Method
  • Induction and deduction, observation, and hypothesis testing can be combined in a systematic way to illustrate the scientific method.
  • They are particularly appropriate for researchers whose conclusions depend on empirical data.
  • 8 items on page 40
scientific attitude
Scientific Attitude
  • If the tools of thinking are the mind of science, then the scientific attitude is the spirit.
  • The scientific attitude unleashes the creative drive that makes discovery possible.
  • Imagination, intuition, curiosity, suspicion, anguish, the rage to know, self-doubt.
hawthorne studies
Hawthorne Studies
  • Productivity vs. Worker Satisfaction
  • Scientific Management vs. Behavioral Research
understanding theory components and connections the building blocks of theory
Understanding Theory: Components and ConnectionsThe Building Blocks of Theory
  • Concepts
  • Constructs
  • Definitions
  • Variables
  • Propositions and Hypotheses
  • Theories
  • Models
understanding concepts
Understanding Concepts
  • A concept is a bundle of meanings or characteristics associated with certain events, objects, conditions, situations, and behaviors
  • Concepts have been developed over time through shared usage
  • Concrete: dog or table

Abstract : leadership, personality, motivation, etc.

Such abstract concepts are often called constructs.

understanding concepts1
Understanding Concepts
  • The success of research hinges on:
    • how clearly we conceptualize
    • how well others understand the concepts we use

Table vs. Personality

what is a construct
What is a Construct?
  • A construct is an image or idea specifically invented for a given research and/or theory-building purpose.
  • Exhibit 2-4
operational definition
Operational Definition
  • a definition for a variable stated in terms of specific testing criteria or operations, specifying what must be counted, measured, or gathered through our senses.
  • Freshman, Sophomore, Junior, Senior
  • Beauty
  • Achievement
types of variables
Types of Variables
  • Independent
  • Dependent
  • Moderating
  • Extraneous
  • Intervening
independent and dependent variables
Independent and Dependent Variables
  • Researchers are most interested in relationships among variables.
  • Does a participative leadership style influence job satisfaction ?
  • Researchers hypothesize relationships of independence and dependence: They invent them, and then they try by reality testing to see if the relationships actually work out that way.
independent and dependent variables1
Independent and Dependent Variables

New Product

Success

Stock Market

Price

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable

independent and dependent variables2
Independent and Dependent Variables

Number of books

Reading abilities

Independent variable

Dependent variable

moderating variables
Moderating Variables(干擾變數或情境變數)
  • a second independent variable, believed to have a significant contributory or contingent effect on the originally stated IV-DV relationship; notation: MV.
  • The introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity.
  • The introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity, especially among younger workers.
  • Whether a given variable is treated as an independent or as a moderating variable depends on the hypothesis.
moderating variables1
Moderating Variables(干擾變數或情境變數)

Number of books

Reading abilities

Independent variable

Dependent variable

Parents’ literacy

Moderating variable

moderating variables2
Moderating Variables(干擾變數或情境變數)

Willingness to learn

Training programs Growth needs

moderating variables3
Moderating Variables(干擾變數或情境變數)

Effects for those high in growth needs

Willingness to learn

Effects for those low in growth needs

Training programs

extraneous variables
ExtraneousVariables(外生變數或外在變數)
  • variables to assume (because they have little affect, or their impact is randomized) or exclude from a research study.
  • In routine office work, the introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity, especially among younger workers.
intervening variables
InterveningVariables(中介變數)
  • a factor that affects the observed phenomenon but cannot be seen, measured, or manipulated, thus its effect must be inferred from the effects of the independent and moderating variables on the dependent variable.
  • the introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity by increasing job satisfaction.
intervening variables1
InterveningVariables(中介變數)

Time:

t1

t2

t3

Workforce

diversity

Creative

synergy

Organizational

effectiveness

Independent variable

Intervening variable

Dependent variable

intervening variables2
InterveningVariables(中介變數)

t1

t2

t3

Workforce

diversity

Creative

synergy

Organizational

effectiveness

Independent variable

Intervening variable

Dependent variable

Managerial

expertise

Moderating variable

theoretical framework 1
Theoretical Framework (1)

Communication among cockpit members

Communication between ground control and cockpit

Air-safety

violations

Decentralization

Dependent variable

Training of cockpit crew

Independent variable

theoretical framework 2
Theoretical Framework (2)

Communication among cockpit members

Communication between ground control and cockpit

Air-safety

violations

Decentralization

Dependent variable

Nervousness

and

diffidence

Training of cockpit crew

Independent variable

Intervening variable

theoretical framework 3
Theoretical Framework (3)

Communication among cockpit members

Communication between ground control and cockpit

Air-safety

violations

Decentralization

Dependent variable

Training

Independent variable

Moderating variable

propositions and hypotheses
Propositions and Hypotheses
  • We define a proposition as a statement about concepts that may be judged as true or false if it refers to observable phenomena.
  • When a proposition is formulated for empirical testing, we call it a hypothesis
propositions and hypotheses1
Propositions and Hypotheses
  • Dr. Chen has a higher-than-average achievement motivation.
  • Faculty members at Dept. of Information Management, NTUST, have a higher-than-average achievement motivation.
descriptive hypotheses
Descriptive Hypotheses
  • American cities are experiencing budget difficulties.
  • Answer to question.
  • Q: “Are American cities experiencing budget difficulties ?”
  • Q: “What is the unemployment rate in Detroit ?”
  • These are propositions that typically state the existence, size, form, or distribution of some variable.
relational hypotheses
Relational Hypotheses
  • Describe a relationship between two variable with respect to some cases.
  • Correlational hypotheses

People in southern Taiwan give President Chen a more favorable rating than do people in northern Taiwan.

  • Explanatory (causal) hypotheses

An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income saved. (direction should be considered)

theoretical framework among variables
Theoretical Framework Among Variables

MANAGEMENT STYLE

People-Oriented

H3

H2

USER

PARTICIPATION

H1

SYSTEM

SUCESS

H2

H3

Task-Oriented

From Paper Reading Assignment 1

the role of the hypothesis
The Role of the Hypothesis
  • Guides the direction of the study
  • Identifies facts that are relevant
  • Suggests which form of research design is appropriate
  • Provides a framework for organizing the conclusions that result
what is a good hypothesis
What is a Good Hypothesis?
  • A good hypothesis should fulfill three conditions:
    • Must be adequate for its purpose
    • Must be testable
    • Must be better than its rivals
  • See Exhibit 2-6 for details
theory
Theory
  • a set of systematically interrelated concepts, definitions and propositions that are advanced to explain or predict phenomena (facts); the generalizations we make about variables and the relationships among variables.
theory paper reading assignment 2
Theory – Paper Reading Assignment 2

Perceived

Usefulness

(PU)

Attitude

(ATT)

Behavioral

Intention

(BI)

Perceived

Ease of Use

(PEOU)

  • TAM, Technology Acceptance Model
theory paper reading assignment 21
Theory – Paper Reading Assignment 2
  • TPB, Theory of Planned Behavior

Attitude

(ATT)

Subjective

Norms

(SN)

Behavioral

Intention

(BI)

Perceived

Behavioral

Control

(PBC)

theory paper reading assignment 22
Theory – Paper Reading Assignment 2

Perceived

Usefulness

(PU)

Compatibility

(COM)

Attitude

(ATT)

Behavioral

Intention

(BI)

Perceived

Ease of Use

(PEOU)

Subjective

Norms

(SN)

Perceived

Behavioral

Control

(PBC)

  • TAM and TPB

The TAM Model

The TPB Model

the value of a theory
The Value of a Theory
  • Narrows the range of facts we need to study
  • Suggests which research approaches will yield the greatest meaning
  • Suggests a data classification system
  • Summarizes what is known about an object of study
  • Predicts further facts that should be found
models
Models
  • a representation of a system that is constructed to study some aspect of that system or the system as a whole.
  • Models differ from theories in that a theory’s role is explanation whereas a model’s role is representation.
different types of models
Different Types of Models
  • Descriptive models

Describe the behavior of elements in a system where theory is inadequate or nonexistent

  • Explicative models

Extend the application of well-developed theories or improve our understanding of their key concepts

  • Simulation models

Clarify the structural relations of concepts and attempt to reveal the process relations among them

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