Neighbors in Conflict and the Failed State

1. Neighbors in Conflict and the Failed State Samantha DiFilippo sd8334a@american.edu American University School of International Service

2. Research Question Does having conflict in a neighboring state increase a state’s failed state index ranking? • Research Hypothesis • H0: States experiencing high levels of neighborhood war are not more likely to be ranked higher on the failed state index. • HA: States experiencing high levels of neighborhood war are more likely to be ranked higher on the failed state index.

3. Literature Review • Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger - CIDCM- J. Joseph Hewitt, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, and Ted Robert Gurr (2009) • 1 of 5 indicators chosen to forecast future instability is “neighborhood security,” which is a very similar measure to neighborhood war. • Both “neighborhood security” and “future instability” are similar, yet different enough to neighborhood war and the Failed State Index • Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes?- Nicholas Sambanis • Hypothesis: Presence of war in a neighboring country should increase the risk for more war in the neighborhood. • Neighborhood war is just one of the independent variables used to look at the behavior of states and conflicts. • Literature regarding neighborhood war typically exists in the realm of ethnic conflict, due to its national border resistant nature.

4. Data Unit of Analysis: Countries Dependent Variable • 2007 Failed State Index: (fsi) • LOM: interval ratio • Source: The Fund for Peace, 2007 Independent Variables • Conflict in neighboring state 2007 “neighborhood war” (nw) • LOM: ordinal Unit: states • Source: Adapted from Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 2007 • 2005 Corruption Perceptions Index (corrup) • LOM: interval ratio • Source: Transparency International, 2005 • 2005 Rate of child mortality under 5 (per 1000 live births) • (mrate5) • LOM: interval ratio • Source: UNICEF: ChildInfo, 2005

5. Descriptive Statistics and Bivariate Correlations Failed State Index Range: 1-120

6. Neighborhood War Analysis • Chi Square: 155 • Significance: .373 • N= 169 • Gamma: .462 • Significance: .000 Gamma (PRE): When predicting the order of pairs of cases on the dependent variable (failed state index), we would make 46% fewer errors by taking into account the independent variable (neighborhood war). There is a positive moderate relationship between neighborhood war and failed state index. Chi Square: Affected by high number of cases and not significant. RESULT: Ambiguous findings but Gamma is definitely a better measure.

7. Regression Analysis Dependent = FSI

8. Limitations of Model Correlation Coefficients • Collinearity • Use of Index • New Variable for Failed State

9. Conclusion • Failed to reject null hypothesis = Did not accept research hypothesis • Findings based on model • The BLUE model had a positive strong relationship between the corruption index, the mortality rate under 5, and the failed state index. • The model indicates that further analysis should be done to determine the study of neighborhood war and the “failed state.” • Policy Recommendations • A state’s high mortality rate and level of corruption can very much be affected by conflict in a neighboring state. • The relationship between neighborhood war and the failed state index indicates that increased attention should be paid, by the international community, to states in regions of high conflict, such as Africa and South Eastern Asia, where borders are especially weak.