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Vehicle to Grid Power Analysis Seminar NREL, Washington, DC 28 September 2005

Vehicle to Grid Power Analysis Seminar NREL, Washington, DC 28 September 2005. Willett Kempton University of Delaware. Four Big Problems . Global climate change. Evidence in the past two years suggest far more risk than before.

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Vehicle to Grid Power Analysis Seminar NREL, Washington, DC 28 September 2005

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  1. Vehicle to Grid PowerAnalysis SeminarNREL, Washington, DC28 September 2005 • Willett Kempton • University of Delaware

  2. Four Big Problems • Global climate change. Evidence in the past two years suggest far more risk than before. • Peak oil production; demand from China and India soaring; $200B/year in Middle East wars. • US economy extraordinarily vulnerable to external supply and distant politics. • Renewable energy plentiful and now cheap, limited by intermittent supply.

  3. An Unexpected Synergy • It may be easier to solve all of these problems at once than one at a time. • Vehicle to Grid power (“V2G”) as a bridging technology.

  4. Vehicle to Grid Arrows indicate direction of power flow

  5. V2G Basic Math • Average car driven 1 hour/day --> time parked is 23 hours/day • Daily average travel: 32 miles • Practical power draw from car: 10 - 20 kW • US power generation=811 GW; load=417 GW • US 191 million cars x 15 kW = 2,865 GW

  6. How Much Power?

  7. How Much Power? ... power in cars >> generation or load

  8. Which vehicles will be available first? • Fuel cell? • Plug-in hybrid? • Battery? (all work for V2G, distinct advantages for each)

  9. Fuel Cell Vehicle: Honda FCX

  10. NRC Review of H2 • "Since using hydrogen as a transportation fuel would necessitate several significant breakthroughs, other alternatives to achieve the program goals should be explored and additional research supported if such alternatives show comparable prospects for success. The committee suggests that high-energy batteries for pure battery electric vehicles might be such an alternative. " • From: Executive Summary, “Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership”, National Research Council, draft, August 2005, page ES-5 (www.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/11406.pdf)

  11. Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle: DaimlerChrysler Sprinter

  12. Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle: DaimlerChrysler Sprinter

  13. Revolution in Battery Technology • Today’s automotive starter batteries: Lead-acid • RAV4 EV (and Toyota Prius hybrid battery): Nickel Metal-hydride • New batteries based on Lithium, Li-ion or Li-polymer: 5x lighter for same energy! • These advances make possible large battery storage for vehicles.

  14. Which atom would you schlep?

  15. Which atom would you schlep? Pb=207.2 Ni=58.9 Li=6.9

  16. So, what can you do with these batteries?

  17. Venturi Fetish 58 kWh Li-ion 180 kW 400 km range standard: WiMax 802.16 2 Intel chips Oracle 10G iPod V2G 0-100 km/h in 4.5 sec, max 170 km/h 19 Sep 05 press release: http://www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3549956

  18. Mitsubishi Colt platform In-wheel motor 13 kWh Li-ion, 2 x 20kW in-wheel motors; developing 50 kW in-wheel motor

  19. Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion “We plan to manufacture safety-certified electric vehicle conversions and sell them to retail and fleet customers. The conversions will be based on the Scion xA and xB, the new sport compact vehicles built by Toyota...

  20. Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion “We plan to manufacture safety-certified electric vehicle conversions and sell them to retail and fleet customers. The conversions will be based on the Scion xA and xB, the new sport compact vehicles built by Toyota... “We plan two models, a base model, and a premium with a larger battery. The base model will outperform the RAV4 EV and is expected to sell for about the same price.”

  21. But, don’t we need to wait for the big OEMs?

  22. OEM Automobile Logic • Automobile as receiver of petroleum; isolated from other energy systems • Engine as the primary value added, owned by OEM (other components commodity items, from suppliers) • Expertise in combustion, mechanical engineering, low-cost production • No expertise or IP in electrochemistry, power electronics, power markets • Consumer’s performance space inviolable

  23. BEV and PHEV Logic • Non-fossil carriers essential to the future • Hydrogen unlikely, especially in the near term, thus electricity primary carrier • CO2 displacement very large, especially with hydro or wind • Electricity as carrier leads to V2G logic...

  24. V2G Logic • Cars: A power resource too large to ignore • V2G makes electric power capacity cheap, but electric energy is still expensive • Today, market value for grid management • Future, enable very large renewable energy • Optimize design for both transport and electric system -- OEMs will not do this

  25. Example logical disconnect: The Plug • OEM: stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power components, no electrician needed (save $500), anyway where’s the V2G rate schedule? • V2G: add 15kW connection, get fast charge, sell regulation services (add revenue of $3,000/year), start with regional markets.

  26. Example logical disconnect: The Plug • OEM: stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power components, no electrician needed (save $500), anyway where’s the V2G rate schedule? • V2G: add 15kW connection, get fast charge, sell regulation services (add revenue of $3,000/year), start with regional markets. The OEMs don’t get it. They aren’t going to get it until someone else puts the pieces together and shows how it works.

  27. Better to demonstrate the V2G business model without OEMs

  28. Better to demonstrate the V2G business model without OEMs • V2G revenues mean we can afford to make cars that costs $10K too much • Less capitalized manufacturing process allows design refinements as we understand the businesses • The critical cost barriers are components, not low-cost assembly

  29. Which power markets? • Not bulk power, because costs > revenue • Ideal to start selling mostly power (capacity) not so much energy ... ancillary services (A/S) • A/S: Regulation, spinning reserves, reactive power, etc ~ $10B/year in US • Vehicle can run regulation while parked and charging (next slides)

  30. Regulation from hydro

  31. Regulation from V2G (drive, charge & A/S)

  32. A sequence of markets • High value regulation great for buying down initially high vehicle cost • About 1 - 3% of the vehicle fleet saturates regulation, up to perhaps 4-5% saturates other A/S, then start selling peak power • As V2G costs drop and A/S saturates, start selling storage for intermittent renewables (8-38% of fleet enables 50% wind!) • So, let’s look at some business models...

  33. PJM A/S Regulation: Single Vehicles • Average DPL costs for Ancillary Service regulation: $6,800,000/year ($6.8M) • Average PJM regulation contract price in 2003 was $38.33 $/MW-h • Single vehicle, 15 kW, available 18 h/d, A/S reg -> $3777 revenue/year • PJM contracts 1 MW, so, need an aggregator (e.g., Delmarva, Verizon Cellular or ...)

  34. A/S Regulation: Fleet operator as IPP • 100 vehicles, parked 18h/d (16 h * 5 days + 24 h * 2 days), 80% available, each 20 kW A/S regulation services at $38/MW-h. • Single connection point, single meter, 2 MW peak “generator” --> higher ISO comfort • Revenue: 100*18h*365d*.8*.02MW*$38= $400,000/year revenue from fleet ($4,000/car/year)

  35. Regional assembly • Buy gasoline vehicle, modify to electric with V2G • 10 lifts in a 10,000-15,000 ft2 warehouse, 15-20 employees, produce 250 cars/year, 2 shifts=500 • Vehicle conversion local, battery assembly local, cars sourced from OEM, drive sourced from AC Propulsion, national/local sourcing of: gearbox, wiring harness, non-drive electronics, metal parts. • Production could start in 12 - 18 months!

  36. Assembler Finances • Engineer for each platform: Cost about $1 - $2M for engineering and testing. Add $2M for NTSA crash tests, manufacturer certification. • Set up shop for $US 0.4 to 1.0 million; working capital about $3 m • Assembler cost breakpoints at 500, 2,000 vehicles/year; OEM cost breaks at 30,000 - 100,000/year • Vehicle cost at 250/year perhaps $45k; an argument for public subsidy

  37. Transition Strategy • Start simple: Battery now, e-hybrid later • Small fleets: 100 car V2G fleet = 1 MW; demonstrate V2G business models • Production in several regions, develop technology, drive down component costs • Develop standards for V2G (e.g. response time, metering, at least 10 kW/car, drawdown limits, etc) • THEN we need the OEMs, low-cost production at > 50,000 cars/year

  38. How to launch a V2G industry? • Well under $20 M gets several fleets going • OR, a couple of state PUCs could allow/ratebase/require their IOUs to buy 100 vehicle size V2G fleets • OR, a municipal government or urban peak power user could provide free CBD parking & free charge in exchange for V2G • OR, a state legislature could use a small gasoline, electric, or car registration fee to buy down initial costs of V2G vehicles

  39. Vision • One-half vehicle fleet is electric drive: battery plus plug-in hybrid • One-half of electric energy from wind, eventually other renewables • Climate change is greatly slowed down; US can survive (a while) without foreign oil • CO2-free electricity, high-penetration intermittent renewables, and CO2-free transportation: an unexpected and dramatic synergy

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