e infrastructure for large scale social simulation
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e-Infrastructure for Large-Scale Social Simulation. Mark Birkin Andy Turner. Simulation Infrastructure. Background Features Capabilities Current developments, plans and priorities. Background. Aim :

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Presentation Transcript
simulation infrastructure
Simulation Infrastructure
  • Background
  • Features
  • Capabilities
  • Current developments, plans and priorities
background
Background
  • Aim:
  • Exploring the extent to which it is possible to develop robust representations (models) of cities and regions:
  • - as they are
  • - as they will be
  • - as they could be
background4
Background
  • Objectives
  • Realistic representations of cities
  • Medium-term projections
  • Changing behaviours and activity patterns

Service utilisation

Resource planning

Scenario-based forecasting

  • Technology interfaces
background5
Background
  • The Population Reconstruction Model (PRM)

Deprivation in Leeds, 2001

background6
Background
  • The Dynamic Model: Elderly Population

2031

2001

background7
Background
  • The Scenario Model: Air Quality

2001

2031

Traffic Intensity *

2015

* Traffic Intensity=Traffic load/Road capacity

background8
Background

Population and average speed changes in Leeds from 2001 to 2031

features 1
Features (1)
  • A formidable requirement for processing and storage:
  • PRM takes anything from several minutes to several days depending on the choice of algorithm and spatial extent
  • a typical set of forecasts
  • 800,000 individuals
  • 30 characteristics
  • 30 time periods
  • 20 scenarios
  • now duplicate for the ‘other’ 58 million!
features 2
Features (2)
  • An array of data sources which are potentially distributed:
  • Small Area Statistics
  • Sample of Anonymised Records
  • Special Migration Statistics
  • ONS Vital Statistics
  • BHPS
  • General Household Survey
  • Health Survey for England
  • Map boundaries and other spatial datasets
  • and so on...
features 3
Features (3)
  • Requires a capability for interrogation of data/ models/ scenarios and visualisation of the resulting outputs:

Map

Chart

Table

Report

features
Features
  • Architecture
features13
Features
  • Service-Oriented Architecture
plans and prospects
Plans and Prospects
  • National e-Infrastructure for Spatial Simulation (NeISS)
  • 1/4/09-31/3/12, 18 man years, £2 million budget
  • JISC Information Environment Programme:
  • “Developing e-Infrastructure to support research disciplines”
  • - production-level simulation tools and services
  • - social simulation exemplars
  • - integration of tools and respositories
  • - establish standards and frameworks
  • - work with stakeholders: raise awareness, build capacity, provide new services
plug and play architecture
Plug-and-play architecture?

Workflow

Research

Object

Portlet

neiss letters of support
NeISS: Letters of Support
  • Partners: Leeds, Manchester, Southampton, UCL, Glasgow, STFC, Stirling
  • E-Infrastructure service providers and stakeholders: NGS; NeSC; CCSR; Mimas; ESRC; UKRDS; Census Programme; UKOLN; EGI
  • User community: NCRM; Autodesk; Demographic Decisions; COMPASS; CGS; Newcastle School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences; Agriculture and Agri-food Canada; Liverpool School of Geography; Reading School of Systems Engineering; Royal Town Planning Institute; Macaulay Institute; AGI; EUAsiaGrid
neiss community
NeISS Community
  • Three tiers:
  • end-users (naïve)
  • research users (sophisticated)
  • contributors (“power users”)
  • Lifecycle model?
questions
Questions
  • What other simulations can we add to the portfolio?
  • Is it possible to build a community of both users and developers for social simulation?
  • What additional functions and services can be provided to support a social services infrastructure?
  • What are key datasets for the simulation community?
  • How important is computational grunt as a constraint? Are there other bottlenecks to simulation modelling which might be overcome through an e-infrastructure?
conclusions
Conclusions
  • NCeSS programme has introduced a platform and elements for the establishment of a research infrastructure for social simulation
  • NeISS project will provide the resources to implement a ‘production level’ version of these technologies
  • The project will stand or fall by its ability to engage with the social simulation research community
  • - your support is crucially important!!
references
References
  • Birkin M, Townend P, Turner A, Wu B, Xu J (2007) An Architecture for Social Simulation Models to Support Spatial Planning
  • http://www.ncess.ac.uk/events/conference/2007/papers/paper214.pdf
  • (Social Science Computing Review, in press).
  • Townend P, Xu J, Birkin M, Turner A, Wu B (2008) Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science Through the Use of Service-Orientation and Web 2.0 Technologies
  • http://www.ncess.ac.uk/events/conference/programme/workshop1/?ref=/programme/fri/4ctownend.htm
  • (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, in press)
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