environmental technical working group meeting ierm discussion october 16 2003
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Environmental Technical Working Group Meeting – IERM Discussion October 16, 2003. Overview. Review/Discussion for PI Conceptual Model Diagrams Outstanding Issues Organized by Subgroup Discussion of Habitat Modeling and Correspondence/Categorization. IERM Conceptual Model – Lake Ontario.

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Presentation Transcript
overview
Overview
  • Review/Discussion for PI Conceptual Model Diagrams
  • Outstanding Issues Organized by Subgroup
  • Discussion of Habitat Modeling and Correspondence/Categorization
wetland plant sub model lo usl
Wetland Plant Sub-Model (LO/USL)

Wetland Plant PI Measures

  • LO/USL Water Level Time Series
  • Maximum level in 2 consecutive quarter monthly periods
  • Average water level for growing season
  • % Species Composition @ Specific Elevations
  • Barrier Beach
  • Drowned River Mouth
  • Protected Embayment
  • Unprotected Embayment

Feed to Faunal Sub-Models

Sub-Model Inputs

  • “Average” Wetland Topography
  • Barrier Beach
  • Drowned River Mouth
  • Protected Embayment
  • Unprotected Embayment

Sub-Model Outputs

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)
  • Barrier Beach
  • Drowned River Mouth
  • Protected Embayment
  • Unprotected Embayment

Feed to Faunal Sub-Models

  • LO/USL Wetland Area
  • Barrier Beach
  • Drowned River Mouth
  • Protected Embayment
  • Unprotected Embayment

Wetland Plant Effects

fish sub model lo usl lsl
Fish Sub-Model (LO/USL/LSL?)

Daily input

  • LO/USL Water Temperature Time Series
  • Daily values corrected based on depth/location

Fish PI Measures

Habitat Variables (20-m grid)

Guild-Based WSA for system (ha)

Water Depth

  • LO/USL Water Level Time Series
  • Interpolated daily values

Local Habitat Patch WSA (ha)

Daily input

Submergent Vegetation

Sub-Model Inputs

  • Population Models (life stages: #/ha)
  • Northern pike
  • Yellow perch
  • Smallmouth bass
  • Largemouth bass

Sub-Model Outputs

Wetland Sub-Model

Emergent Vegetation

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)
  • Barrier Beach
  • Drowned River Mouth
  • Protected Embayment
  • Unprotected Embayment

Substrate

Velocity

Fish Effects

wetland bird sub model lo usl
Wetland Bird Sub-Model (LO/USL)

H&H Inputs

Wetland Bird Effects

Wetland Bird PI Measures

  • LO/USL Water Levels
  • Quarter monthly time series
  • Significance of Recruitment Impacts?
  • Various species
  • Nest Losses (%) (Flooding)
  • Various species

Sub-Model Inputs

Sub-Model Outputs

Wetland Sub-Model

  • Significant Trends in Population Potential (#)
  • Various species
  • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)
  • Various species
  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)
  • Barrier Beach
  • Drowned River Mouth
  • Protected Embayment
  • Unprotected Embayment

Diversity of Bird Assemblages (Shannon-Weaver Index)

species at risk sub model lo usl
Species-At-Risk Sub-Model (LO/USL)

H&H Inputs

Species-At-Risk PI Measures

  • LO/USL Water Levels
  • Quarter monthly time series

Species-At-Risk Effects

Sub-Model Outputs

  • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)
  • Various species
  • Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat
  • Various species

Sub-Model Inputs

Wetland Sub-Model

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)
  • Barrier Beach
  • Drowned River Mouth
  • Protected Embayment
  • Unprotected Embayment
herptile sub model lo usl
Herptile Sub-Model (LO/USL)

H&H Inputs

Herptile PI Measures

Herptile Effects

  • LO/USL Water Levels
  • Quarter monthly time series

Turtle Survival (# or %)

Nest/Egg Survival (# or %)

Sub-Model Outputs

  • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)
  • Various species

Sub-Model Inputs

  • Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat Supply
  • Various species

Wetland Sub-Model

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)
  • Barrier Beach
  • Drowned River Mouth
  • Protected Embayment
  • Unprotected Embayment
muskrat sub model lo usl
Muskrat Sub-Model (LO/USL)

H&H Inputs

Muskrat PI Measures

Muskrat Effects

  • LO/USL Water Levels
  • Fall variability (?)
  • Winter variability (?)

Sub-Model Inputs

Sub-Model Outputs

Muskrat House Flooding/ Stranding Potential (% loss?)

Significant loss of muskrats based on threshold?

dabbling duck sub model lsl
Dabbling Duck Sub-Model (LSL)

Dabbling Duck PI Measures

H&H Inputs

Dabbling Duck Effects

  • LSL Water Levels
  • Quarter monthly time series

Brooding Success

Migration Success

Significant Effects?

Sub-Model Outputs

Sub-Model Inputs

Nest Survival (% survival)

Significant Effects On Population

Total Suitable Habitat Supply/Area (ha)

Wetland Sub-Model

Total Estimated Area of Plant Species/Classes (ha)

summary of outstanding issues
Summary of Outstanding Issues
  • Wetland Plants
    • Connecting plant community results to faunal sub-models / ca
    • Understanding potential extent of wetland evolution in LSL (Morin)
  • Fish
    • Streamlining population modeling approaches for LO, USL, and LSL (Minns/Morin/Farrell)
    • Availability of 100-year temperature time series
    • Refining data/approach for lakewide suitable habitat GIS-based computations
    • Tying in fish migration study (DeLafontaine)
summary of outstanding issues1
Summary of Outstanding Issues
  • Wetland Birds
    • Reducing list of key habitat/hydrological variables to be included
    • Connecting nest losses (due to flooding) to significant effects on productivity
  • Dabbling Ducks
    • Importance of long-term changes in habitat
    • Study only includes LSL
    • Rationale for exclusion of dabbling duck predictions for LO and USL?
summary of outstanding issues2
Summary of Outstanding Issues
  • Species-At-Risk
    • Reducing list of species to be modeled (already done for lower river)
    • Use of “hot spots” vs. overall impact on habitat
  • Muskrats
    • Defining direct water level impacts on flooding/ freezing, etc.
    • Extending to lower river model
    • Cattail herbivory feedback?
  • Herptiles
    • Identifying specific habitat/hydrological variables to be included
general ierm svm logistical issues
General IERM/SVM Logistical Issues
  • Merging calculations for LO and USL with LSL 2-dimensional model (Morin)
  • Complexity and computer run-time for:
    • Lower river model
    • GIS-based habitat calculations for LO/USL
  • Refining significance of effects – “meaningful” output for SVM
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