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School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia

School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Alternative Energy and Environmental Issues Dr N. Keith Tovey. Hard Choices Ahead. Physical. Economic. Technical. Political. Social. Environmental. Global Warming Sea level rise Extremes of climate - more flooding

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School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia

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  1. School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Alternative Energy and Environmental Issues Dr N. Keith Tovey Hard Choices Ahead

  2. Physical Economic Technical Political Social Environmental • Global Warming • Sea level rise • Extremes of climate - more flooding • UK will probably become colder • Acid Rain • Pollution etc………etc…….etc How much energy do we need? What do we need it for? Standards of comfort have risen Household sizes have reduced Desire for more appliances If every household in UK turned off one appliance which is normally on standby, how much would we save? Some Resources are expensive to exploit e.g. photo voltaics others such as Gas are cheap Exploitation of some Energy Resources is limited by technical know-how e.g. Wave Power There are also limits to how fast new resources/technologies can be exploited. • Climate • Geological Resources - Fossil Fuels / Nuclear • Renewable Resources • Lawsof Nature(thermodynamics) Energy • Measures in last 12 months • New Building Regulations • New Electricity trading Arrangements • New Renewable Obligation about 500 Wind Turbines the size of Swaffham.

  3. How much Energy do we need? Per person Domestic Transport Industry Commercial/Administration/Education Conversion Total 1.0 kW 1.2 kW 0.8 kW 0.5 kW 1.5 kW ======== 5.0 kW

  4. Current Dependency on Fuels for different countries

  5. Energy is getting cheaper, particularly since privatisation and deregulation. This is making renewables less attractive

  6. Changing Fuel Mix in UK On present trends, gas will become more and more dominant. In 1990 < 1% of electricity was generated by gas. In 2001 >40% of generation is by gas and rising rapidly.

  7. We can make CO2 targets with all new electricity generation from gas, but then 75% of our electricity will depend on supplies of gas from Russia, Middle East, or North Africa These figures assume we achieve 20% renewable generation by 2022

  8. Changing Face of Energy in UK Where will we get our Gas from after 2010 Russia?, Middle East?, Libya?, Algeria?

  9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020

  10. 18th March 19th March 20th March Electricity Consumption in a large house in Wales -17th - 20th March 2002 What do we mean when we say that a particular energy system could supply electricity for N homes? Data courtesy of ENV-2C08 students

  11. Electricity Consumption in a detached house in Gorleston -28th March 2002 Peak demand 3.02kW Average 0.38kW Average UK 0.45 kW Number of Houses supplied by turbine of Size of Swaffham 124 - Peak 982 - Average 833 - Average UK However, what Load Factor is assumed? Data courtesy of Charlotte Turner

  12. Wind Energy in Europe The European Commission directive 2001: Member States are required to adopt national targets for renewables that are consistent with reaching the Commission’s overall target of 12.1 per cent electricity from renewables by 2010. UK’s indicative target is 10 per cent electricity.

  13. How are we going to meet these demands for electricity in the future? The Energy Review indicates 10% by renewables by 2010 and 20% by 2020. “In order to get more than 10% of electricity from renewables by 2010 and 20% by 2020, build rates for the leading options would need to be at levels never before seen in the UK. Onshore and offshore wind would need to be installed at a rate of between 1-2 GW per year “(i.e. 1000 - 1500 turbines the size of Swaffham every year). “However, 1.5 GW and 1.6 GW of onshore wind was built in Germany in 1999 and 2000 respectively, and a further 1.2 GW was installed in the first eight months of this year (2001). Build rates of 1 GW per year were also seen Spain in 2000, and 600MW in Denmark in the same year.”

  14. Increase in Renewable Component for Electricity Generation to meet Government Target of 10% by 2010 Note: If we meet this target, it will hardly change the non-renewable component - i.e. the renewable deployment will just keep pace with increase in demand. Even if we do meet target (which is far from certain), our CO2 emissions will rise following from closure of nuclear plant.

  15. Distribution of Renewable Projects

  16. The UK target for New Renewables set in 1993, was the building of 1500MW of new renewable capacity by 2000. How did we do?

  17. East of England contribution to renewables target for UK for 2010 is 14% (reflecting in part its population). • Onshore wind • Offshore Wind • Biomass • Around 1700 GWh will need to come from onshore wind representing 110+ Turbines the size of Swaffham in Norfolk. Proposed Offshore Wind Turbine locations

  18. A Strategic assessment of Wind Energy / Biomass Potential Digital Map of part of Norfolk Norwich is in bottom left hand corner Area: 105 sq kms

  19. Minimum exclusion zone (400m) around houses/towns. Number of Turbines 65 Mean output 24.4 MW Area for Turbines 20.7 sq km We could add other Planning exclusions etc - areas of particular landscape value etc.

  20. Large exclusion zone (800m) around houses/towns. Number of Turbines 33 Mean output 12.4 MW Area for Turbines 10.2 sq km

  21. How many turbines would be needed if Breckland were to be self sufficient - domestic and commercial about 180 - 200 Turbines of the size of Swaffham Turbine sizes: Double the size of turbine - the output goes up 4 times but spacing between turbines must be increased However, the number of turbines is greatly reduced. If wind speed doubles, the output goes up 8 times Increasing height of turbine for same diameter (e.g. 85m compared to 67m will increase output by 6 - 10%

  22. Key Environmental Issues - some of main issues against • Distraction to drivers • Danger to birds • Radio/Television/Radar Interference • Noise - mechanical, aerodynamic, …..infra-sound? • Flickering • - only relevant within buildings and then only in a precise orientation at selected times of the year. • Danger of ice throw • - not really a problem as other constraints will mean that a sufficient exclusion zone is present anyway • Blade failure • Aesthetics - • one blade, two blades, three blades, Darrieus, Musgrove?

  23. Noise Contours for a cluster of three turbines at Shipdham Noise issues: Mechanical Aerodynamic Infra-sound • Problem with high-speed gearboxes in fixed velocity machines. • Not an issue with Swaffham/ proposed turbines at Shipdham. • Maximum rotation speeds of gearboxless turbines are at a maximum 70% of normal wind turbines, and often much less - hence much less “swish” noise. • This is a subject which is not fully understood - it is at a frequency which would NOT be detected by normal ground vibration.

  24. Ice can form • but if this occurs when stationary, the machine will not start • if it forms in operation, then the out of balance on blades is detected and the machine will stop in a few revolutions. • Worse case scenario would cause ice to be thrown distances much less than the exclusion zone for noise.

  25. One Blade, or Two, or Three?

  26. Or do we prefer vertical axis machines?

  27. Key Environmental Issues of Wind Energy - positive aspects • Offsets the use of fossil fuels and consequential gaseous emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, NMHC etc. • Arguements that fossil fuel power stations have to be kept ready in case wind drops are completely INVALID. Power stations running under lower load use less fuel and it is this which causes the emissions. • Improves diversity of supply of electricity • will become of increasing importance in future • Is becoming technically mature • unlike most other renewable technologies (other than energy from waste incineration and hydro) • Is the most cost effective Renewable Option currently available, and will remain so for next decade + • As electricity will used locally, reduces transmission losses.

  28. What are Our Priorities? • Should we be more concerned with present or future generations? • Are we concerned about CO2 emissions? • Global warming • - probably making UK colder and wetter • - sea level rise - more frequent flooding Do we want to see continued development of renewable energy and On shore Wind Energy in particular? - this is the most cost effective renewable and only a little more expensive than coal generation. Do we want many more Wind Turbines? ~ 500 - 1000 + per year on land initially - and eventually say 2003/4 + in increasing numbers at sea?

  29. If our answer in No. How are we going to reduce our CO2 emissions? • Energy from Waste Incineration/ Land Fill Gas? • Extensive use of Biomass (still in its infancy) - large areas of countryside used for “growing energy” • Photovoltaics are very expensive • other technologies either have insufficient resource (hydro) or are technicallyconstrained at present(Wave, Tidal Stream) . If the answer to the above results in small amounts being available then it we shall see an increase in CO2 and other gases by 2020 UNLESS

  30. We continue to exploit gas at increasing rates for the generation of electricity. We will become a net importer before 2010. • Will we be happy to have 80% of our gas (which will then also supply 75% of our electricity) supplied from countries such as Russia, Middle East, Libya, or Algeria? • If our answer is NO. Do we want Nuclear Power (French Method)? If our answer is NO Do we want to go back to using coal for electricity generation?. BUT: Are we confident that viable carbon sequestration techniques will become available? AND: Do we want more coal mines / coal fields - North Norfolk? If our answer is still NO

  31. How do we persuade people to conserve energy. It is a primarily social issue of individual responsibility. not just a technical or governmental issue. Remember 500 Wind Turbines the size of Swaffham. If we all switched our TVs off , rather than leaving them on standby, it would save the equivalent of one power station output. Advertisement from National Press

  32. In conclusion • We have difficult choices to make. • No one solution is free of problems • What is the best way forward which will provide security of energy supply for the future and yet recognise the concerns of individuals both locally and nationally? • If we are not positive about our approach then there is every chance we shall suffer the California Syndrome. Major problems have occurred in recent years in the supply of electricity because …”no significant new generation (of any form) has been built in California for over 10 years. New build has been constrained by environmental regulation and high levels of local opposition (by companies and consumers) to siting of new generation.”

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