National Energy Marketers Association U.S. International Energy Policy

1. National Energy Marketers Association U.S. InternationalEnergy Policy Douglas Hengel Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy, Sanctions and Commodities Bureau of Economics, Energy and Business Affairs U.S. Department of State April 29, 2008

2. Global Energy Picture • Growing Demand • Asia, Middle East • Supply Challenges • Insufficient investment • Constrained access • Climate Change • Gas and Coal

3. Growing Energy Demand • IEA projections: • Global energy needs by 2030 will increase by over 50%, compared to 2005 levels, barring policy shifts. • 70% of growth from emerging economies • China and India together account for 45% of projected increase in demand • To meet growing demand, $22 trillion of investment between now and 2030 required.

4. 18 000 Other renewables 16 000 14 000 Gas 12 000 10 000 Mtoe Coal 8 000 6 000 4 000 Oil 2 000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Fossil Fuels Dominate Through 2030 • Renewables growing but will be long time before they catch up to fossil fuels. Nuclear Biomass

5. Supply Issues • Limited spare production capacity. • Oil and gas exports concentrated among relatively few countries, some unstable. • New resources hard to reach, costly to develop. • Foreign investment welcome? NOCs control more than 75% of the world’s proven oil reserves.

6. Who Has the Oil?

7. Climate Change • Fossil fuel consumption is greatest source of anthropogenic GHG emissions. • Carbon constrained future could limit use of coal. • Important role for developing countries. China is overtaking the U.S. as the largest GHG emitter. • United States is committed to working with the UNFCCC to develop a post-2012 arrangement that is environmentally effective and economically sustainable.

8. U.S. ENERGY SECURITY PILLARS • Diversification of Energy Types and Suppliers • Energy Efficiency • Environmental Protection • Enhancement of International Energy System

9. Energy Independence Security Act of 2007 (EISA) • Will reduce projected GHG emissions by an estimated six billion metric tons by 2030. • Cleaner, more efficient transportation. • Renewable Fuels Mandate • Vehicle Fuel Economy Mandate • More energy efficient homes and offices. • Expand use of clean energy technologies. • CCS programs – seven large scale geologic injection programs • New funding for battery technology, solar power, 2nd generation biofuels.

10. Improving Energy Efficiency • Energy Secretary Bodman: “The biggest source of immediately available ‘new’ energy is the energy we waste every day.” • 1973-1986: annual U.S. energy consumption was constant while GDP grew at 35%. • 1995-2005: overall energy intensity (energy used per unit of GDP) improved by more than 20%. • In 2002 President Bush set goal to reduce energy intensity of the U.S. economy by 18% by 2012.

11. Diversification: Canada – A Reliable Energy Partner • Largest supplier of oil, natural gas, and electricity to the U.S. • Safe, secure supply for the North American market. • In 2006, Canada supplied the United States with 2.3 million barrels of oil per day, equivalent to 17% of total U.S. imports.

12. Keystone Crude Oil Pipeline • 1,300 miles from Canada through the U.S. Midwest. • Will boost Canada’s exports to U.S. by 495,000 barrels per day.

13. Addressing the Environment U.S. has devoted nearly $45 billion to climate change since 2001 for science, research and development, international assistance and incentive programs. $8.6 billion more in FY2009 requested. $42.5 billion available for federal loan guarantees to promote the commercialization and deployment in the U.S. of clean energy technology.

14. Addressing the Environment: The Major Economies Process • MEP countries represent over 80% of the world’s economy and 80% of the world’s GHG emissions. • Seek consensus on a series of recommendations for a post-2012 climate framework to be agreed in the broader UN negotiations.

15. International Cooperation • Energy demand growth driven from abroad. • U.S. working with India, China, Russia, Brazil, the EU and others to improve energy efficiency, deploy clean energy technology, promote biofuels, and coordinate R&D. • The IEA brings together most major energy importing countries to work on these issues and coordinate emergency response. • Free, open and competitive markets for energy trade and investment are essential to increasing energy security.

16. Enhancing Cooperation – The Clean Technology Fund • Will deploy advanced clean energy technology to developing countries. • Will target a broad array of sectors, including renewable energy, transmission, transportation, and building efficiency. • U.S. committing $2 billion. The UK and Japan are already partner countries.

17. International Cooperation: European Energy Security • European energy security important to the U.S. • EU energy security would be enhanced by moving to a truly integrated internal market. • Achieve greater diversification of types, sources, and routes of European energy supplies. • Russia – Investment and Energy Efficiency.

18. CONCLUSION • The energy challenges we face are difficult, no silver bullet. • Action on many fronts required simultaneously. • Rewards will be: • Firmer foundation for our economy • Cleaner environment • More secure nation