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Environmental Scan

Environmental Scan. University of Illinois Office for Planning and Budgeting 3 rd Edition, November 2007. Environmental Scan: Purpose and Process.

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Environmental Scan

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  1. Environmental Scan University of Illinois Office for Planning and Budgeting3rd Edition, November 2007

  2. Environmental Scan: Purpose and Process The purpose of an environmental scan is to support and inform the strategic planning process. A good environmental scan will help an organization understand and respond effectively to changes in their environments.1 • This environmental scan provides information on demographics, higher education, economic and budgetary matters, research, technology, and economic development, the political landscape, and the related implications, opportunities, and challenges for the University of Illinois. • The University of Illinois’ initial environmental scan was developed in March 2005 to set a context for the University’s strategic planning framework. Subsequent editions of the environmental scan have updated source data for many of the charts and graphs and added elements of increasing importance (e.g., information has also been added on the topics of global competitiveness in higher education participation, completion, and attainment, energy, online education, and the impacts of the aging population). • Because the external environment in which the University of Illinois operates is continually changing, the environmental scan will be updated and refined periodically to reflect the most recent available information on key opportunities and challenges facing the University. • Feedback on the usefulness of the environmental scan and suggestions for improvement are welcome and encouraged. Please direct any comments or questions to the University Office for Planning and Budgeting (UOPB) via e-mail to envscan@uillinois.edu. 1 Bryson, John M. Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organizations. 2004. Page 2

  3. Creatively addressing the educational, health care, and other needs of an increasingly diverse Illinois population Developing a niche within the rapidly developing market for online education both nationally and globally Responding to the growing global demand for individuals with training in the sciences and engineering Enhancing capacity in energy research and development (both traditional and renewable sources) Developing new and enhanced University revenue sources from the growing demand for higher education and R&D activities Effectively responding to the increased interest of state and federal policymakers in the public accountability of colleges and universities Key Highlights: Opportunities Page 3

  4. Maintaining and enhancing access to the University for minority, low income, and first-generation students Recruiting and retaining high quality faculty and staff given increasing competition and looming retirements Ensuring the highest level of academic quality in the face of state and federal funding constraints Maintaining the University’s physical environment absent new infusions of state capital funding Expanding the University’s R&D capacity given federal funding constraints Balancing interest in enhancing higher education’s public accountability with legitimate privacy concerns within the University community (students, faculty, and staff) Key Highlights: Challenges Page 4

  5. Table of Contents • Demographics…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7 • U.S. Population Projections, 2000-2020 8 • Illinois Population Ages 18-24 Race/Ethnicity 9 • University of Illinois Statewide Presence 10 • Undergraduate and Graduate/Professional Enrollments by Race/Ethnic Higher Education 11 • Minority Enrollment Data by Campus 12 • University of Illinois Full-Time Faculty by Race/Ethnicity 13 • University of Illinois Full-Time Faculty by Gender 14 • University of Illinois Full-Time Staff by Race/Ethnicity 15 • University of Illinois Full-Time Staff by Gender 16 • University of Illinois SURS Participants, Tenure-System Faculty Age Distribution 17 • University of Illinois SURS Participants, Non-Tenure Faculty and Staff by Age Distribution 18 • Health Care and Aging 19 • Implications for the University of Illinois 20 • Higher Education……………………………………………………………………………………………. 21 • International Comparisons: Higher Education Attainment 22 • International Comparisons: Higher Education Participation and Completion 23 • Projected Percentage Change in Number of High-School Graduates from 2002 to 2009 24 • University of Illinois Degrees Conferred 25 • Percentage of Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Gender 26 • Mean Income by Quintile in Illinois 27 • Faculty Salary Comparisons, IBHE Peers 28 • University of Illinois Faculty and Enrollments 29 • Enrollment in Online Courses 30-31 • Implications for the University of Illinois 32 Page 5

  6. Table of Contents • Economy and Budget………………………………………………………………………………………... 33 • Economic Value of Higher Education 34 • U.S. Economic Indicators 35-36 • State of Illinois Economic and Fiscal Indicators 37 • State of Illinois General Fund Appropriations by Sector FY 2007 38 • State of Illinois Financial Liabilities 39 • Illinois Projected Employment Growth, 2002-2012 40 • University of Illinois Share of State Tax Appropriations FY 1980 to FY 2007 41 • University of Illinois Budget by Source of Funds 42 • University of Illinois All Sources of Duns FY 1990 – FY 2007 43 • The Center: The Top American Research Universities 44 • Big Ten University and Foundation Endowments 45 • Public Higher Education Capital Appropriation History FY 1999 to FY 2007 46 • Implications for the University of Illinois 47 • Research, Technology, and Economic Development………………………………………………………. 48 • Trends in Federal R&D Funding 49 • Total R&D Expenditures of Carnegie Research I Institutions, FY 2004 50 • University of Illinois Rank among AAU Institutions on Selected Quality Indicators 51 • International Comparison: Production of Undergraduate Degrees in Natural Sciences & Engineering 52 • International Comparison: Doctoral Degrees Granted in Natural Sciences & Engineering (1993-2003) 53 • University of Illinois Technology Transfer: U.S. Patents 54 • University Technology Transfer and Commercialization Performance Index 55 • Energy Costs and Use 56 • Renewable Energy 57 • Implications for the University of Illinois 58 • Political Landscape…………………………………………………………………………………………... 59 • Illinois House and Senate Memberships 60 • Illinoisans’ Support for State Higher Education Spending Increases 61 • Implications for the University of Illinois 62 • Sources………………………………………………………………………………………………………... 63 Page 6

  7. Demographics Page 7

  8. Ages 18-35, by Race-Ethnic Group Ages 18-35, by Gender Millions Millions 2002 2,894,429* 2003 2,952536 2,958,908 2004 2,983,477 Year Year 3,042,003 2005 3,107,931 All Race-Ethnic Groups, by Age Group 3,186,940 2006 3,195,259 Millions *Actual Figure 2007 2008 2009 Year 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 * Includes Native Americans, Aleutians, and persons of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2003. U.S. Population Projections, 2000-2020 Projected Total Number of High-School Graduates Page 8

  9. 2020 2000 Black White Black 17.8% White 58.2% 17.2% 65.8% American Indian American Indian 0.2% 0.2% Asian Asian 5.1% 3.5% Hispanic 13.3% Hispanic 18.7% Illinois Population Ages 18-24 Race/Ethnicity N = 1.358M N = 1.200M Page 9

  10. UIC UIUC UIS University of Illinois Statewide Presence University of Illinois Campus Locations On-Campus Headcount Enrollment by County, Fall 2007 • Additional Facilities • Regional Medical Colleges • Rockford • Peoria • Urbana-Champaign • Illinois has 102 Counties • U of I Extension serves all 102 Counties • Police Training Institute FY 2005 students from 81 Illinois Counties • Fire Service InstituteFY 2005 students from 99 Illinois Counties • FY 2005 State-wide Programming Course Locations in 16 Illinois Counties • Online Instruction accessible from all 102 Illinois Counties • Regional Agricultural Stations • 4-H Camps Page 10

  11. Undergraduate Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity Fall 2007 UIC UIS UIUC Graduate/Professional Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity Fall 2007 UIC UIS UIUC Page 11

  12. Minority Enrollment Data Fall 1996 through Fall 2006 UIC UIS UIUC Page 12

  13. University of Illinois Full-Time Faculty by Race/EthnicityFall 2005 – All Fund Sources Page 13

  14. University of Illinois Full-Time Faculty by GenderFall 2005 – All Fund Sources Page 14

  15. University of Illinois Full-Time Staff by Race and EthnicityFall 2005 – All Fund Sources Page 15

  16. University of Illinois Full-Time Staff by GenderFall 2005 – All Fund Sources Page 16

  17. Chicago Campus w/ UIH Springfield Campus FTE FTE Urbana-Champaign Campus w/ CES FTE University of Illinois SURS Participants, Tenure-System Faculty Age Distribution October 10, 2006 Page 17

  18. University of Illinois SURS Participants, Non-Tenure Faculty and Staff Age Distribution October 10, 2006 Page 18

  19. Health Care Spending % of GDP2005 Health Care Spending % of GDP in the USA1975 - 2020 Number of Americans Over 60 by Decade Total Spending on Health Care Per Person2005 Page 19

  20. DemographicsImplications for the University of Illinois • Illinois will experience slight population growth in coming years. • As with the rest of the U.S., Illinois’ population will become more diverse and the Hispanic population will grow faster than any other segment. • The proportion of African-American students at UIC and UIUC grew slightly after a period of decline, while the proportion of Hispanic students has generally grown at all three campuses in recent years. Pressure from University stakeholders to enhance diversity among students, staff, and faculty will continue. • The over 50 population will grow rapidly. This aging population will put increasing pressure on social services and health care and may view higher education as less of a priority in the future. • A significant proportion of the University’s tenure/tenure-track faculty are age 55 or over creating the potential for large numbers of retirements in the near future. Page 20

  21. Higher Education Page 21

  22. International Comparison: Higher Education Attainment Page 22 Source: Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Data represent the percentage of adults with an associate’s degree or higher in 2005.

  23. International Comparison: Higher Education Participation and Completion Page 23 Source: Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Data are for 2003.

  24. Projected Percentage Change in Numberof High-School Graduates from 2002 to 2009 University of Illinois On-Campus HeadcountEnrollment by State Fall 2006 Page 24

  25. University of Illinois Degrees Conferred – FY 2007 UIS Bachelor’s Degrees Conferred by Race/Ethnicity FY 2007 UIC Bachelor’s Degrees Conferred by Race/Ethnicity FY 2007 UIUC Bachelor’s Degrees Conferred by Race/Ethnicity FY 2007 Page 25

  26. Percentage of FY 2007 Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Gender Page 26

  27. Increase in Median Income for Families by Quintile 1982 to 2006 Mean Income by Quintile in Illinois 1982 to 2006 Percent of Undergraduates Who Receive MAP Awards by RaceFY 2006 Page 27

  28. Faculty Salary Comparisons, IBHE Peers Full-time Instructional Faculty Salary Rank, Fall 2007UIC Full-time Instructional Faculty Salary Rank, Fall 2007UIUC Full-time Instructional Faculty Salary Rank, Fall 2007UIS Research I Universities Full-Time Instructional Faculty Average Salaries FY 1982 to FY 2007 Page 28

  29. University of Illinois Faculty and Enrollments FTE On-Campus Enrollment per FTE Tenure-System Faculty Fall 1983 to Fall 2006 UIC FTE On-Campus Enrollment per FTE Tenure-System Faculty Fall 1996 to Fall 2006 UIS FTE On – Campus Enrollment per FTE Tenure – System Faculty Fall 1983 to Fall 2006 FTE On-Campus Enrollment per FTE Tenure-System Faculty Fall 1983 to Fall 2006 UIUC Page 29

  30. Enrollment in Online Courses National EnrollmentsFall 2002 to Fall 2006 At the University of Illinois Fall 1999 to Fall 2006 At Illinois Colleges and Universities Fall 1999 to Fall 2006 Illinois vs. University of Illinois FY 2006 Page 30

  31. Online Learning Trends • Online enrollments have continued to grow at rates far in excess of the total higher education student population, albeit at slower rates than for previous years. • The Almost 3.5 million students were taking at least one online course during the fall 2006 term; a nearly 10 percent increase over the number reported the previous year. • The 9.7 percent growth rate for online enrollments far exceeds the 1.5 percent growth of the overall higher education student population. • Nearly twenty percent of all U.S. higher education students were taking at least one online course in the fall of 2006. • Improving student access is the most often cited objective for online courses and programs.  Cost reduction is not seen as important. • Approximately one-third of higher education institutions account for three-quarters of all online enrolments.  Future growth will come predominately from these and similar institutions as they add new programs and grow existing ones. • Much of the past growth in online enrollments has been fueled by new institutions entering the online learning arena.  This transition is now nearing its end; most institutions that plan to offer online education are already doing so. • Future growth in online enrollments will most likely come from those institutions that are currently the most engaged; they enroll the most online learning students and have the highest expectations for growth. Page 31 Source: Online Nation: Five Years of Growth in Online Learning. The Sloan Consortium. http://www.sloan-c.org/publications/survey/index.asp

  32. Higher EducationImplications for the University of Illinois • U.S. competitiveness in higher education participation, completion, and attainment, while still strong, is slipping relative to other developed and developing nations. • The college age population will grow nationwide, but this growth will vary greatly among regions. The West, Southwest, and Southeast will experience growth that will exceed capacity in public higher education, although in general the Midwest will not. • A larger percentage of women are attending higher education than men and the gap is increasing. • Competition from proprietary institutions and other non-traditional educational providers in the marketplace for students (both nationally and internationally) has greatly increased in recent years. • Growth in faculty compensation at private institutions has surpassed public universities, and the intense competition for faculty will continue. • Relatively flat incomes at the lower income brackets in recent years will have implications for tuition and financial aid policies particularly with regard to promoting access for low income and first-generation students. • Rapid technological innovation has led to a need for lifelong learning that will allow individuals to continuously adapt and update skills. On-line instruction has grown rapidly in the last 10 years as it has gained mainstream acceptance due to increasing internet access and innovations in instructional technologies. Page 32

  33. Economy and Budget Page 33

  34. Value of Higher Education The Lifetime Expected Value of a Bachelor’s Degreeis Rising Compared to a High School Diploma Median Income by Educational Achievement(Males) CUMULATIVE LIFETIME EXPECTED EARNINGS (Dollars in Millions) Males Females Page 34

  35. U.S. Economic Indicators Gross Domestic Product Annual Change Cumulative Inflation Increases Target Federal Funds Rate Page 35

  36. U.S. Economic Indicators Relative Labor Costs Among Major Auto-Producing Nations (in dollars per hour) Increase in U.S. Health Insurance Premiums Compared to Other Indicators 1988 - 2006 Page 36

  37. State of Illinois Economic & Fiscal Indicators State of IllinoisState-Supported Principal OutstandingEnd-of-Year FY 1996-2007(Dollars in Billions) Cumulative Growth FY 1990 – FY 2008 University of Illinois Flash Index Data State of IllinoisGeneral Obligation Debt ServicePrincipal and Interest Page 37

  38. State of IllinoisGeneral Fund Appropriations by Sector – FY 2008 State Tax AppropriationsChanges by Agency State Tax AppropriationsHigher Education vs. Elementary/Secondary Education Page 38

  39. Fastest Growing Industries Fastest Growing Industries Fastest Growing Occupations Fastest Growing Occupations Fastest Growing Occupations Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Medical Asst. Medical Asst. Medical Asst. 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Home Health Serv. Home Health Serv. 3.7% 3.7% Network & Data Comm. Analyst Network & Data Comm. Analyst Network & Data Comm. Analyst 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% Mgmt., Sci. & Tech. Serv. Mgmt., Sci. & Tech. Serv. 3.5% 3.5% Social & Human Serv. Asst. Social & Human Serv. Asst. Social & Human Serv. Asst. 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Ambulatory Health Care Serv. Ambulatory Health Care Serv. 3.2% 3.2% Fitness Train./Aerobics Instr. Fitness Train./Aerobics Instr. Fitness Train./Aerobics Instr. 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% Internet Publish. & Broadcast. Internet Publish. & Broadcast. 3.1% 3.1% Physician Asst. Physician Asst. Physician Asst. 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% Child Day Care Serv. Child Day Care Serv. 3.0% 3.0% Med. Rec. & Health Info. Techn. Med. Rec. & Health Info. Techn. Med. Rec. & Health Info. Techn. 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% Health Practitioners Offices Health Practitioners Offices 3.0% 3.0% Home Health Aides Home Health Aides Home Health Aides 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Electronics & Appliance Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores 2.9% 2.9% Veterinary Technician Veterinary Technician Veterinary Technician 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Outpatient Care Centers Outpatient Care Centers 2.9% 2.9% Phys. Therap. Asst. Phys. Therap. Asst. Phys. Therap. Asst. 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Internet, Web & Data Processing Internet, Web & Data Processing 2.9% 2.9% Haz. Mat. Removal Worker Haz. Mat. Removal Worker Haz. Mat. Removal Worker 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Computer Syst. Design & Serv. Computer Syst. Design & Serv. 2.8% 2.8% Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security U.S. Projected Employment Growth, 2002 U.S. Projected Employment Growth, 2002 - - 2012 2012 Fastest Growing Occupations Fastest Growing Occupations Fastest Growing Occupations Fastest Growing Industries Fastest Growing Industries Fastest Growing Industries Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Avg. ann. change Medical Asst. Medical Asst. Medical Asst. Software Publishing Software Publishing Software Publishing 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% Network & Data Comm. Analyst Network & Data Comm. Analyst Network & Data Comm. Analyst Mgmt., Sci. & Tech. Serv. Mgmt., Sci. & Tech. Serv. Mgmt., Sci. & Tech. Serv. 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% Physician Asst. Physician Asst. Physician Asst. Community Elder & Resid. Care Community Elder & Resid. Care Community Elder & Resid. Care 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% Social & Human Serv. Asst. Social & Human Serv. Asst. Social & Human Serv. Asst. Computer Syst. Design & Serv. Computer Syst. Design & Serv. Computer Syst. Design & Serv. 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% Employment Serv. Employment Serv. Employment Serv. 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% Home Health Aide Home Health Aide Home Health Aide 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% Med. Rec. & Health Info. Techn. Med. Rec. & Health Info. Techn. Med. Rec. & Health Info. Techn. Indiv., Family, Voc. & Rehab. Serv. Indiv., Family, Voc. & Rehab. Serv. Indiv., Family, Voc. & Rehab. Serv. 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% Ambulatory Health Care Serv. Ambulatory Health Care Serv. Ambulatory Health Care Serv. 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% Phys. Therapist Aide Phys. Therapist Aide Phys. Therapist Aide 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% Water, Sewage & Other Systems Water, Sewage & Other Systems Water, Sewage & Other Systems 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% Software Engineer, Applications Software Engineer, Applications Software Engineer, Applications 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% Internet, Web & Data Processing Internet, Web & Data Processing Internet, Web & Data Processing 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% Software Engineer, Systems Software Engineer, Systems Software Engineer, Systems 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Child Day Care Serv. Child Day Care Serv. Child Day Care Serv. 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% Phys. Therap. Asst. Phys. Therap. Asst. Phys. Therap. Asst. 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Illinois Projected Employment Growth, 2002-2012 Page 39

  40. University of Illinois Share of State Tax Appropriations FY 1980 to FY 2008 Average Compounded Annual IncreasesFY 1990 – FY 2008 University of IllinoisPayments on Behalf State of IllinoisGeneral Fund Appropriation – FY 2008 Page 40

  41. University of Illinois Budget by Source of FundsFY 1980, FY 2008 and Projected FY 2018 Page 41

  42. University of IllinoisAll Source of Funds FY 1990 – FY 2008(Dollars in Millions) University of IllinoisAll Source of Funds as a % of Total BudgetFY 1990 – FY 2008 University of IllinoisCumulative GrowthFY 1990 – FY 2008 State & Tuition Pay for Instructional Function Expenditures by Function FY 2006 Page 42

  43. The Center: The Top American Research Universities(August 2002) Total Endowment-Equivalent Adjusted for Student FTE EnrollmentUniversities with More Than $20 Million in Federal Research in Rank Order 2005 Adjusted Total Endowment-Equivalent Based on The Center’s MethodologyUIUC – Peer Institutions (in billions) 2005 Adjusted Total Endowment-EquivalentBased on The Center’s MethodologyUIC – IBHE Peer Institutions (in billions) Page 43

  44. Big Ten University and Foundation Endowments (Dollars in Billions) FY 2006 Percentage Growth from 1995-2006 Big Ten University and Foundation Endowments Annual Change in Endowment Spending Page 44

  45. Public Higher Education Capital Appropriation History FY 1999 to FY 2007(Dollars in Thousands) U of I Capital AppropriationsFY 1995 to FY 2007(Dollars in Millions) Total Debt by Campus Total Debt by Type Page 45

  46. Economy and BudgetImplications for the University of Illinois • The economic value of higher education to the individual – especially those with post-baccalaureate degrees – continues to grow. • The U.S. economy will continue to grow, but at a slower rate. Health care costs continue to grow at a more rapid rate than general inflation and earnings which has an impact on both the national economy and governmental spending at all levels. • The state’s fiscal situation, while somewhat improved, faces continued challenges in the coming years. Health care and pension obligation costs are expected to continue rising rapidly and will likely outpace any state revenue growth realized resulting in continued constraints on “discretionary spending” in the state budget (e.g., higher education). • The state has greatly increased its debt burden in the last four years creating a reluctance among state policymakers to fund additional capital improvements. At the same time, the University must increasingly rely on internal sources for funding capital projects which in turn has contributed to increased debt service levels. • The University has become more reliant on multiple revenue streams and state policymakers may interpret this trend as meaning the University can more easily absorb reductions or at least flat funding in the general appropriation. Page 46

  47. Research, Technology, and Economic Development Page 47

  48. Trends in Federal R&D Funding Federal Outlays for R&DAll Agencies Annual Percentage Change Federal Outlays for R&DNational Institute of Health Annual Percentage Change Federal Outlays for R&DNational Science Foundation Annual Percentage Change Federal R&D Budget Proposal (Dollars in Millions) Page 48

  49. Total Research and Development Expenditures of Carnegie Research I Institutions, FY 2005 Note: Totals reported in thousands. Source: National Science Foundation Page 50

  50. No. Faculty Citations No. Doctorates Awarded State/Local R & D Spending No. Post doctorates USDA Obligations Federal R & D Spending Urbana-Champaign Campus - Actual - - Per 100 Faculty - - Per 100 Faculty - Rank (N = 61) Rank (N = 61) Rank (N = 61) 1 1 1 61 61 61 Chicago Campus Year Year Year - Actual - Rank (N = 61) 1 61 Year University of Illinois Rank Among AAU Institutions on Selected Quality Indicators Sources: National Science Foundation—USDA Obligations, State/Local and Federal R & D spending, No. Post doctorates; IPEDS—No. Doctorates; Thomson ISI—No. Faculty Citations. Page 50

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