1 / 12

Stock and flow models of housing

Stock and flow models of housing. Ivan M Johnstone Department of Property The University of Auckland. Purpose of stock and flow models. Overlooked and often ignored benefits Dynamic relationship between benefits and costs Performance measurement of sustainability

leena
Download Presentation

Stock and flow models of housing

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Stock and flow models of housing Ivan M Johnstone Department of Property The University of Auckland

  2. Purpose of stock and flow models • Overlooked and often ignored benefits • Dynamic relationship between benefits and costs • Performance measurement of sustainability • Flows of benefits and costs measured as a true flux

  3. Mortality of housing stock • Need for realistic models of mortality • Severe data difficulties in most countries • NZ average service life of 90 years • Dynamic mortality – function of expansion rate

  4. Forecasting replacement housing • Gross errors if extrapolate when dynamic mortality • Dwelling losses can decrease as housing stock expands • Need for dynamic housing stock model to forecast

  5. Maximum justified expenditure on full refurbishment • Refurbishment extends service life of dwellings • Alternative source of additional housing • Low discount rates facilitate full refurbishment

  6. Energy and mass flow of housing stock • Macdiarmid (1978) 2.6 GJ/sq m • Baird & Aun (1983) 3.6 GJ/sq m • Johnstone (2001) 2.75 GJ/sq m • 10,000 MJ to sustain one year of dwelling services • 17.4% of above required to sustain growth

  7. Potential reductions in national costs due to refurbishment • Past and current savings of 15% • Potential reductions of 5% • Inconsequential reductions if high expansion rate • Need for balanced combination of benefits and costs

  8. Benefit-cost ratio performance of housing • Current maximum benefit-cost ratio of 26.7 sye/cu • Increase of 32.4% for stationary housing stock

  9. Future research • Impact of using current land use succession criteria • Impact of current taxation schedules • Quantification of economic depreciation of services • Update of 1978 National Housing Commission study

More Related