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Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg Partners November 15, 2012

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. “RUNNING BULLS OR ROARING BEARS: WALL STREET REACTIONS TO THE 2012 ELECTION RESULTS”. Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg Partners November 15, 2012. Introduction.

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Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg Partners November 15, 2012

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  1. The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE “RUNNING BULLS OR ROARING BEARS: WALL STREET REACTIONS TO THE 2012 ELECTION RESULTS” Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg PartnersNovember 15, 2012

  2. Introduction • Status quo election outcome • Center for Responsive Politics estimates that the 2012 election cost US$6 billion – for what? • Obama “mandate” – what’s to come? • Convincing win, but with lower EV and popular vote count than in 2008 • Republicans hold House while Democrats outperform expectations with Senate gains • What message has the electorate sent to Washington? • State and local outcomes • California THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 2

  3. Macro Themes • Fiscal cliff/national debt/deficits • Economic growth expectations • Employment • Taxes • Regulation • General • Financial Services • Energy • Health Care • Affordable Care Act • Interest rates • Currency risk • Business confidence • Consumer confidence • M&A activity THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 3

  4. Fiscal Issues • Fiscal cliff • National debt • Budget deficits THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 4

  5. Growth and Employment • Global economic environment • Fiscal policy impact on growth • American Jobs Act THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 5

  6. Taxes and Regulation • Taxes • As a % of GDP • Composition of tax base • Corporate • Personal • Income • Estate • Dividends and Capital Gains • Business investment • Regulation • General business regulatory environment • Financial Services • Energy • Health Care • Federal, State and Local THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 6

  7. Affordable Care Act • Implementation • Taxes • Modifications/Challenges THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 7

  8. Currency and Interest Rates • Status as reserve currency • Fed policy vis. fiscal cliff • QE infinity? • Long-run inflation risk THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 8

  9. Business/Consumer Confidence • Capital investment • M&A activity • Consumer sentiment • Foreign investor sentiment • Debt reduction • Consumption vs. investment • Corporate cash balances THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 9

  10. Near-Term Sector Themes • Energy • Health Care • Housing and related • Consumer • Infrastructure THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 10

  11. Intermediate-Term Themes • Commodities • Industrial exports • Business services • Consumer luxury THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 11

  12. Thank You Richard J. Shinder Partner, Perella Weinberg Partners 767 Fifth AvenueNew York, NY 10154 (212) 287-3184 rshinder@pwpartners.com Richard J. Shinder is a Partner of Perella Weinberg Partners L.P. (“PWP”).  The opinions expressed in this presentation are his own and may not be representative of those of PWP. NABPAC thanks Jake McGuire of The PAC Store for allowing us to use his photographs in this presentation. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 12

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