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Developing the South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership. Presented by Richard F. Ogburn, Principal Planner. January 30, 2004. South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership. Purpose of the Partnership

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Developing the South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

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Developing the South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

Presented by

Richard F. Ogburn, Principal Planner

January 30, 2004


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South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

Purpose of the Partnership

Enhance the ability of the partners and other interested parties to prepare accurate and timely demographic and economic forecasts and analysis in the Southeast Florida region (composed of the 7 counties in the jurisdiction of the two Regional Planning Councils - South Florida and Treasure Coast).


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South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

  • In 2000, the 7-county region had a population of 5.5 million, up from 3.5 million in 1980 and 4.5 million in 1990.

  • Projected growth for the next 20 years is 250 net new residents each and every day.

  • Almost one-third of the region’s population in 2000 was foreign-born.

  • Over half of the net new residents each year come from abroad.


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Decennial Population Growth, 1920-2030


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South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

The Partnership acquired an 8-region 53-sector version of REMI’s Policy Insight. The eight “regions” of the model are:

Identical copies of the model are maintained at 6 locations:

the 2 RPC offices, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, and the South Florida Water Management District.


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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

  • A coordinated forecasting process will improve the internal consistency of forecasts within the region.

  • For example, the estimate of future net migration between Miami-Dade and Broward Counties will be useful for each county’s population forecast. A coordinated forecasting process would ensure that both counties use the same inter-county migration estimate in their respective forecast. Failing to do so will create an internal inconsistency from a regional perspective.


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County-to-County Migration, 1995-2000


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Growth of the Foreign-Born Population


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Growth of the Foreign-Born Population


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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

  • A coordinated forecasting process will create opportunities for testing the reasonableness of county-based forecast results.

  • Since 1970, Southeast Florida’s share of the total population of the State of Florida has remained stable, although it is projected to decline, due to factors such as the proportionally lower supply of developable land and the higher cost of living in the region. Forecasts at the individual county level could be combined and checked against the region’s share of the state.


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Region’s Share of State Population


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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

  • The use of a consistent forecast for the entire region will enhance the ability of the region and each of its component counties to negotiate successfully for an appropriate share of state and federal resources.

  • Official population estimates for Southeast Florida used in the state’s 2001 budgeting process underestimated the April 1, 2000 population of the region by almost a quarter of a million residents, when compared with Census 2000 data (85.5% of the overall underestimate in the State).


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Differences in Population Estimates


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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

  • As the interrelationships among counties grow stronger, it is increasingly important to forecast growth and change at the regional level.

  • The labor market in Southeast Florida is increasingly becoming a single regional market, with many people living in one county while working in another. As population growth in one county is also dependent upon conditions (such as proximity to build-out) in other counties, it is increasingly difficult to conduct accurate forecasting solely at the county level.


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Regional Journey-to-Work Flows in 1990


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Regional Journey-to-Work Flows in 2000


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Convening the Partnership: Objectives

  • Build expertise in demographic and economic analysis in the region and its component counties – shared learning.

  • Improve understanding of the region and the relationships among its member counties.

  • Develop consensus demographic and economic forecasts, adjusting the regional REMI control as appropriate.

  • Support systematic use of the model in project and policy analysis to ensure improved decision-making.


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Convening the Partnership: Steps

  • SFRPC, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach met to discuss demographic forecasts starting in 2001

  • Broward County encouraged inclusion of regional economic forecasting and fiscal impact analysis

  • Agreement to acquire a model – Summer 2002

  • Letter of Interest – REMI, Rutgers Center for Urban Policy Research, Washington Economics Group

  • Selection of REMI’s Policy Insight – late 2002

  • Expansion of group to include counties in the 2 RPCs


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Convening the Partnership: Coordination

Other Potential Users

  • School Boards

  • Economic Development promotion organizations

  • Airports

  • Seaports

  • Metropolitan Planning Organizations

  • Florida Department of Transportation Districts

  • Developers


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