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Migration and Social Conditions in Bulgaria

This report presents the migration trends in Bulgaria, including high outflow of emigrants, moderate influx of immigrants, and the impact on social and economic conditions. It also discusses the main destinations for Bulgarians and Romanians, as well as the trends in refugee migration.

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Migration and Social Conditions in Bulgaria

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  1. Migration and Social Conditions in Bulgaria Sociological Program Center for the Study of Democracy June 2014

  2. Migration Trends in Bulgaria High outflow of emigrants permanent emigrants temporary labor emigrants seasonal workers highly mobile highly qualified workers students’ migration developed transnational networks ongoing process of return migration Moderate inflow of immigrants less than 1 % from the overall population in 2013 higher share of women originating from neighboring countries

  3. The Say of Statistics: Eurostat Population Statistics and EU Labor Force Survey 1 Romanians – 27% Intra-EU Movers by Nationality Poles – 21% (2010) Germans – 5% Other EU citizens – 18% French – 5% Bulgarians – 5% Romanian and Polish citizens Brits – 5% form almost 50% of intra-EU Italians – 4% movers Portuguese – 4% Dutch - 3% Lithuanians – 3%

  4. Post-Accession Mobility of citizens from BG and RO Citizens from BG and RO resident in EU-25 Before 2007 After 2007 1.4 mln. 2.9 mln.(80% Romanians) Average net growth (persons per year) 220 000 (2003-06) 360 000 (2007-10) Bulgarians - Main Destinations - Romanians Spain - 38% Italy – 41% Germany – 15% Spain – 38% Greece – 12% Germany – 5% Italy – 10% 63 % - reside in Spain and Italy UK – 7% 38% - in Spain 25,5% - in Italy

  5. Labor Mobility from BG and RO was already significant before 2007 Outflow as % of the country’s working population Bulgarians Romanians Since 2004 3.7% 6.6% Since 2007 2.1% 3.1%

  6. Inflows in the EU-15 countries are shaped by the trends in the economy 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 EU-15 7 118 420 233 167 77 99 EU-10 84 260 429 360 124 18 295 EU-2 183 193 274 601 345 186 273 Non-EU-27 1214 695 297 977 636 333 160 EU-2 mobility: already significant before 2007 not significantly bigger than EU-10 mobility lower than non-EU-27 mobility

  7. Impact of mobility by EU-2 nationals GDP per capita is at a boost (2004 – 2009) EU-27 (+ 0.2%); EU-15 (+ 0.4%); Spain (+ 1.7%); Italy (+ 1.3%) Impact on public finances is negligible or positive (national level) Impact on wages of local workers (negative) EU-15: – 0.24% decrease due to EU-2 mobility (short term) - 0.28 decrease due to EU-2 mobility (long term) Spain: - 0.7% decrease Italy: - 0.7% decrease

  8. Third Country Nationals in Bulgaria 2

  9. Third Country Nationals by Top Countries of Citizenship - 2013

  10. The Moderate Volume of Immigrants and the Economic Situation in Bulgaria

  11. Main Trends in Refugee Migration 3 Average inflow of 1000 asylum seekers (up until 2012) Abrupt increase of asylum applications in 2013 (five times bigger inflow as compared to 2012) Speedy establishment of reception infrastructure adequate to the increased volume of asylum Seekers

  12. Main Trends in Refugee Migration1993 – May 2014 Demographic Profile 1993-2014 2012 2013 Men 63 % 68 % 51 % Women 14 % 19 % 32 % Children 23 % 13 % 17 % Recognition and Refusal Rates Granted refugee status – 4 081 (13%) Granted humanitarian status – 8 619 (27 %) Refusals – 6 958 (22 %)

  13. Asylum Applications by Top Countries of Origin - 1993 – May 2014 Total N of asylum applications – 31 307 Syria - 7 055 (22.5 %) Afghanistan - 6 603 (21 %) Iraq - 5 637 (18 %) Armenia - 1 898 (6 %) Stateless - 1 788 (5.7 %)

  14. Population of Bulgaria according to Census Results 4 1985 - 8 948 649 1992 - 8 487 317 2001 - 7 928 901 2011 - 7 364 570 for a period of 26 years: - 1 584 079 persons

  15. Census Results 2011 • In 1.02.2011 г. the population of Bulgaria is 7 364 570 persons. Of them: 51.3% women and48.7% men 72.5% living in the cities and 27.5% in the villages • Between 2001 и 2011 г. the country population decreased by 564 331 • two thirds of this decrease (68.9%) is due to negative population growth • one third of this decrease (31.1%) is due to external emigration of 175 244 persons.

  16. Census Results 2011 – Ethnic and Religious Structure of the Population Bulgarian ethnic group 5 664 624 persons 84.8% Turkish ethnic group 588 318 persons 8.8% Roma ethnic group 325 343 persons 4.9 % Orthodox Christians 76 % Muslims 10 %

  17. Social and Economic DevelopmentRoma in Bulgaria – 2011 5 Roma Non-Roma ENROLMENT RATE Pre-school 38 % 77 % Compulsory education (7-15 years of age) 82 % 85 % Upper-secondary education (16 – 19 years of age) 39 % 67 %

  18. Social and Economic DevelopmentRoma in Bulgaria - 2011 Roma Non-Roma EMPLOYMENT Employment rate (15-64 years of age) 42 % 57 % Unemployment rate (15 - 64 years of age) 35 % 20 % Informal Employment Incidence (15 – 64 years of age) 53 % 14 %

  19. Social and Economic DevelopmentRoma in Bulgaria - 2011 Roma Non-Roma HEALTH Access to medical insurance 49 % 87 % No access to essential drugs 69 % 20 %

  20. Social and Economic DevelopmentRoma in Bulgaria - 2011 Roma Non-Roma MIGRATION Migration History 1 % 2 % Support from abroad 9 % 4 % Migration Intention 20 % 10 % Migration Targets DE (18 %) UK (20 %) EL (17 %) DE (20 %) ES (14 %) IT (10 %)

  21. Sources 1. Sources for Slides 3-7: Hollnd, et. al (2011) Labor Mobility within the EU – The Impact of Enlargement and the functioning of the transitional arrangements, National Institute of Economic and Social Research – UK; Report from the Commission to the Council on on the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements on Free Movement of Workers from BG and RO (COM(2011) 729 final. 2. Source for slides 8-10: National Statistical Institute 3. Source for slides 11 - 14: State Agency for Refugees 4. Source for slides 15-17: National Statistical Institute 5. Source for slides 18-21: UNDP-World Bank Survey 2011 and EU Agency for Fundamental Rights Survey 2011. Both surveys were conducted on a random sample of Roma and non-Roma households living in areas with higher density (or concentration) of Roma populations in Bulgaria.

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