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Welcome

Introduction to Statistics for the Social Sciences SBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200 Lecture Section 001, Fall, 2013 Room 120 Integrated Learning Center (ILC) 10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays . Welcome. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI.

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Welcome

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  1. Introduction to Statistics for the Social SciencesSBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200Lecture Section 001, Fall, 2013Room 120 Integrated Learning Center (ILC)10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. Welcome http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

  2. Please fill this out

  3. Lab sessions Everyone will want to be enrolled in one of the lab sessions No labs this week We will start next week

  4. Show of hands: How many people would like to add this class? Please fill this out

  5. Announcements Extra credit: design a creative way to teach some concept in the course. Video (digital or analog) Computer animation Video animation Should include both 1. an explanation of the concept being taught and 2. an opportunity for the viewer to quiz themselves on the material

  6. First homework due on Wednesday • Please read Chapters 1 & 2 • Answer some Chapter 2 questions • Please note: The first two chapters of the text are online • Please note: The specific questions can be found on our class “homework” website

  7. Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences Instructor:Suzanne Delaney, Ph.D. Office:405 “N” McClelland Hall Phone:621-2045 Email:delaney@u.arizona.edu Office hours:2:00 – 3:30Mondays and Wednesdays and by appointment

  8. Ha & Ha Book Packet of Textbooks: 1. Integrative Statistics for the Social and Behavioral Sciences. Renee Ha and James Ha (2012). 2. 100 Questions (and Answers) About Research Methods. Neil J Salkind (2012). 3. Excel Statistics: A Quick Guide. Neil J Salkind (2011). Study Guide for Ha & Ha Text. Ha, Ha & Maliken (2012). 5. The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. S Plous (1993). Copies of first 4 are available at the campus bookstore. This one is available on website

  9. Course website • http://courses.eller.arizona.edu/mgmt/delaney/ • Announcements • Syllabus • Exam grades (Link to D2L)

  10. Notetakers Name Major email phone #

  11. Why study stats? Let’s start with four short demonstrations

  12. Demonstration 1: A Memory Test Try to remember these word lists for a recall test Important: Try not to mix up the lists!!

  13. Why does that work?

  14. Demonstration 2: A Counting Test Count how many times the ball is passed by the team in the white shirts (not the black shirts – just the white) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4&watch_response

  15. Why does that work?

  16. Demonstration 3: A Test of Disambiguation

  17. Please close your eyes Right half of room

  18. Really !

  19. . This is a rat

  20. Please close your eyes Left half of room

  21. Really !

  22. . This is a man

  23. Please open your eyes Everyone

  24. . What is this a picture of?

  25. . This is a rat This is a man What is this a picture of?

  26. . Everyday our “biases” affect how we see the world and make decisions. Expectations affect our perceptions of the world. Our knowledge affects our perceptions of the world. New knowledge can reshape what we see.

  27. Demonstration 4: Another Test of Disambiguation New knowledge can reshape what we see.

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  40. Demonstration 1: Our prior knowledge will influence our memories – inserting what was never there Demonstration 2: Our interests will influence what we see – making invisible what is right in front of us Demonstration 3: Our recent experiences will influence what we see – making one interpretation much more likely Demonstration 4: Our current environment will influence what we see – making images meaningful

  41. Not just “tricks”, but demonstrations that show even the most basic interpretations of what we perceive and remember in the physical world is malleable and vulnerable. How we interpret social interactions and business problems are similarly vulnerable to bias. Careful measurement helps us account for these biases.

  42. Every day we disambiguate what we see, remember, interpret and understand. Why study stats? Every time we see, or remember, or understand a problem we are vulnerable to biases. Biases can impede or improve our decision making. (We want to minimize “bad biases” while maximizing “good biases” to our decision making) It is important to be aware of our own vulnerability to biases and illusions in social settings and in even the most basic daily experiences.

  43. Statistics and research methods allow us to try to “take into account” our natural tendencies for specific kinds of biases “When presented new information, we have no other option than to relate it to what we already know – there is no blank space in our minds within which new information can be stored so as not to “contaminate” it with existing information” - Clifford Konold, Scientific Reasoning Research Institute, University of Massachusetts* * From Issues in Assessing Conceptual Understanding in Probability and Statistics By Clifford Konold, University of Massachusetts. Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.1 (1995)

  44. Why study stats? POWER!!Be able to defend that your methods are better than others – lead to advancement

  45. Why study stats? Cake:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpWoFMSf73g Cops: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZyU6po_E74

  46. Why study statistics? • Literacy in language of statistics • Study of stats provides opportunity for improving your computer literacy and management of databases and technical literacy • Data management • Too much??! - Stats can help you simplify • Too little ??!? – Stats can help you fill in the blanks (smartly) • Career Advancement (how helpful you are to others) • Improvement of own critical thinking • (own life-long cognitive development)

  47. Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences What is this course for? • Improve skills for using data to inform our daily decisions and to avoid problems that arise from biases and illusions. • Exploring the assumptions and principles underlying • experimental methodologies and findings • Practice critical evaluation of data and claims both in • the popular media and in scientific publications • Practice completing calculations and applying the solutions • to applied situations in daily life and in scientific inquiry

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