1 / 18

SafeFITS A Road Safety Decision-Making Tool

Submitted by Secretariat Informal document WP.29-175-31 17 5 th WP.29, 19 - 22 June 2018 Agenda item 8.2. SafeFITS A Road Safety Decision-Making Tool. UNECE World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations (WP.29) Geneva, 20 June 2018. SafeFITS.

kynton
Download Presentation

SafeFITS A Road Safety Decision-Making Tool

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Submitted by Secretariat Informal document WP.29-175-31 175th WP.29, 19 - 22 June 2018 Agenda item 8.2 SafeFITS A Road Safety Decision-Making Tool UNECE World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations (WP.29) Geneva, 20 June 2018

  2. SafeFITS • Road safety decision-making tool • Aim to assist governments and decision makers • Database on road safety indicators (i.e. fatalities and injuries, performance indicators, road safety measures, economy and background) for all countries worldwide • Statistical model of global causalities allowing “intervention”, “forecasting” and “benchmarking” analyses • CurrentStatus • Model finalized (after June 2017 peer review) • www.unece.org/trans/theme_safefits.html • Final version of web application presented at Inland Transport Committee (ITC) February 2018 • Pilot studiesbeingconducted in Albania and Georgia

  3. Conceptual framework • Based on five pillars of WHO Global Plan of Action and improved version of SUNflower pyramid SafeFITS layers • Economy and Management • Transport Demand and Exposure • Road SafetyMeasures • Road Safety Performance Indicators • Fatalities and Injuries SafeFITSpillars • Road Safety Management • Road Infrastructure • Vehicle • User • Post-Crash Services

  4. Database • Data for 130 countries • Population greaterthan 2.8 million • From international databases: WHO, UN, IRF, OECD and others • Refers to 2013 or latestavailableyear • Availability • Data available for large majority of countries and indicators • Low data availability in some cases • Restraint use rates • Fatalitiesattributed to alcohol use and fatalities by road user type • Transport demand and exposureindicators • Imputation where value missing – mean value of countries withsimilar road safety and socio-economiccharacteristics

  5. Data analysis methodology • Two-step modeling approach • Estimation of composite variable for each layer • Development of regression model by correlating road safety outcomes with composite variable • Otherconsiderations • Previousyearfatality rate • GNI per capita • Country grouping by socio-economiccharacteristics • Modeling assessment • Meanpercentagepredictionerror – 15% • More robust for countries withlowerfatality rates • Model cross-validatedwithsubset of full data set

  6. Introduction

  7. User manual

  8. Definitions

  9. Disclaimer

  10. Benchmark

  11. Benchmark – edit base case, compare against country cluster

  12. Benchmark – compare Transport Demand and Exposureindicators

  13. Forecast

  14. Forecast – change intervention year

  15. Forecast – no confidence intervals

  16. Report Generation

  17. Model limitations and recommendations • Model developed with best available data • But data missing for some countries – imputed using cluster averages where necessary • Outcomes for countries withveryparticularcharacteristics (eg, low GDP, high modal share of motorcycles) may not beproperlycaptured • Output based on extrapolation of short-termdevelopments • Takeintoaccount confidence intervals! • Use base case scenario as reference point • Test combinations of similar interventions – whatwouldbelikely to change together? • Note when changes or interventions are outside of historicalnorms – model not calibrated for these inputs • Model currentlybased on 2013 data – to beupdatedwith 2016 WHO data as publishedthisfall

  18. Suggestions? Comments? Contact UNECE stat.trans@unece.org

More Related